La escuela de los momios

Chapecoense v Vitoria

Inicio: 2026-04-05 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Chapecoense (Local)

Predicción 36.34%2.75momio equitativo
EV +1.75%
Ventaja +0.626%
Kelly +0.973%
Crecimiento +0.017%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.06%36.34%36.41%38.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.382.532.502.8042.02%39.55%40.00%35.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Vitoria (Visitante)

Predicción 34.08%2.93momio equitativo
EV +2.23%
Ventaja +0.745%
Kelly +1.12%
Crecimiento +0.025%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.19%33.98%34.10%35.20%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.772.753.0040.00%36.06%36.36%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.58%3.38momio equitativo
EV -2.38%
Ventaja -0.721%
Kelly -1.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.41%29.68%29.48%31.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.143.133.3036.36%31.84%31.90%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 38.13%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.41%EV +2.23%E +0.745%K +1.12%G +0.025%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.46%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-05 18:54
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 38.13%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.41%EV +2.23%E +0.745%K +1.12%G +0.025%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.46%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-05 18:55
FanDuel2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-05 18:49
Unibet (NL)2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -9.88%E -3.98%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 18:55
betPARX2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -9.88%E -3.98%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 18:55
Casumo2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -9.88%E -3.98%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 18:54
Grosvenor2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -9.88%E -3.98%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 18:54
Unibet2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -9.88%E -3.98%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 18:55
Unibet (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -9.88%E -3.98%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 18:55
1xBet2.62I 38.17%NM 36.99%EV -4.79%E -1.83%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.65%EV -1.85%E -0.644%K -0.987%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.37%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-05 18:50
Pinnacle2.66I 37.59%NM 36.36%EV -3.34%E -1.25%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.70%EV -2.20%E -0.765%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.94%EV -4.45%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 18:50
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 36.26%EV -4.79%E -1.83%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.10%EV -2.20%E -0.765%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 18:50
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 36.70%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%EV -2.88%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-05 18:35
BetRivers2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -10.97%E -4.48%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -2.88%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 38.11%EV -11.69%E -4.81%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -2.88%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -6.82%E -2.16%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-05 18:14
LeoVegas2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -11.69%E -4.81%K -8.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -2.88%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-05 18:54
Tipico (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -2.88%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -12.73%E -4.32%K -6.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-05 18:49
DraftKings2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 18:44
Bovada2.59I 38.61%NM 36.30%EV -5.88%E -2.27%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.13%EV -7.70%E -2.47%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 18:47
BetAnything2.59I 38.61%NM 36.23%EV -5.88%E -2.27%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-05 18:54
BetUS2.59I 38.61%NM 36.23%EV -5.88%E -2.27%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-05 18:55
PMU (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -12.78%E -5.33%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-05 18:15
TABtouch2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -12.78%E -5.33%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-05 18:14
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -14.21%E -4.90%K -7.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-05 18:49
NordicBet2.58I 38.76%NM 36.05%EV -6.24%E -2.42%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.46%EV -5.26%E -1.89%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 18:40
Betsson2.58I 38.76%NM 36.05%EV -6.24%E -2.42%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.46%EV -5.26%E -1.89%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 18:39
Marathon Bet2.58I 38.76%NM 36.14%EV -6.24%E -2.42%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.78%EV -5.94%E -2.15%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 18:40
BetOnline.ag2.80I 35.71%NM 34.06%EV +1.75%E +0.626%K +0.973%G +0.017%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 18:09
LowVig.ag2.80I 35.71%NM 34.06%EV +1.75%E +0.626%K +0.973%G +0.017%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-05 18:10
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-05 18:40
Bet Victor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -3.86%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 18:40
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 18:40
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 18:39
Betway2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 18:35
Everygame2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-05 18:34
PlayUp2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-05 18:40
Virgin Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.80%EV -13.51%E -5.68%K -9.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.71%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-05 18:14
LiveScore Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.80%EV -13.51%E -5.68%K -9.79%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.71%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-05 18:15
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.55%EV -10.97%E -4.48%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -14.21%E -4.90%K -7.48%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-05 18:50
Coolbet2.64I 37.88%NM 36.00%EV -4.06%E -1.54%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.20%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-05 18:15
Codere (IT)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 18:14
Unibet (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 18:15
GTbets2.56I 39.06%NM 36.45%EV -6.97%E -2.72%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.98%EV -4.75%E -1.47%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 18:14
Bet Right2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 18:54
PointsBet (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 18:55
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-05 18:55
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-05 18:35
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-05 18:34
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -10.71%E -4.09%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-05 18:34
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-05 18:15
Betclic (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -10.97%E -4.48%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.32%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.26%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-05 18:31
Unibet (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -12.78%E -5.33%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-05 18:34
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.40%EV -12.78%E -5.33%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.95%EV -14.80%E -5.92%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-05 18:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.30%EV -12.78%E -5.33%K -9.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.89%EV -14.80%E -5.92%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.81%EV -18.65%E -6.78%K -10.66%G +0.000%18.0%2026-04-05 18:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.74I 36.50%NM 36.48%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.77%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.75%0.1%2026-04-05 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.65%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%0.3%2026-04-05 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.65%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%0.3%2026-04-05 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.65%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67%0.3%2026-04-05 18:50
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.63%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.70%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.67%0.9%2026-04-05 18:50
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.45%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.80%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.75%1.6%2026-04-05 18:55