Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense v Mirassol

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 19:00 UTC

Final: Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Mirassol

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atletico Paranaense (Local)

Prediction 49.20%2.03fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.76%49.27%49.18%51.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.871.881.9656.82%53.41%53.19%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mirassol (Visit)

Prediction 21.99%4.55fair odd
EV +7.75%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +1.99%
Growth +0.154%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.74%21.92%22.04%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.354.334.9026.67%23.01%23.09%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.81%3.47fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -0.775%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.11%28.81%28.78%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.213.253.3835.71%31.12%30.77%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense (Local): 49.20%; Mirassol (Visit): 21.99%; Draw: 28.81%. For Mirassol (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.55. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.28%EV -7.01%E -3.71%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.78%EV +7.75%E +1.58%K +1.99%G +0.154%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.93%EV -3.49%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-30 18:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.28%EV -7.01%E -3.71%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.78%EV +7.75%E +1.58%K +1.99%G +0.154%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.93%EV -3.49%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-30 18:40
Unibet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -9.47%E -5.15%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV +4.45%E +0.936%K +1.19%G +0.053%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 18:40
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV +4.45%E +0.936%K +1.19%G +0.053%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-30 18:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV +4.45%E +0.936%K +1.19%G +0.053%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-30 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV +4.45%E +0.936%K +1.19%G +0.053%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-30 18:40
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV +4.45%E +0.936%K +1.19%G +0.053%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-30 18:40
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.77%EV +4.45%E +0.936%K +1.19%G +0.053%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-30 18:40
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV +3.35%E +0.712%K +0.905%G +0.030%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.81%E -2.44%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.26%EV -10.95%E -6.05%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.74%EV +3.35%E +0.712%K +0.905%G +0.030%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -7.81%E -2.44%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-30 18:40
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.63%EV -7.50%E -3.99%K -8.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +1.15%E +0.250%K +0.319%G +0.004%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.67%EV -4.35%E -1.31%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 11:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.55%EV -7.50%E -3.99%K -8.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV +1.15%E +0.250%K +0.319%G +0.004%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -4.93%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-30 16:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.55%EV -7.50%E -3.99%K -8.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV +1.15%E +0.250%K +0.319%G +0.004%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -4.93%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-30 16:19
BetUS🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.55%EV -7.50%E -3.99%K -8.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV +1.15%E +0.250%K +0.319%G +0.004%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -4.93%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-30 16:20
BetAnything🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.55%EV -7.50%E -3.99%K -8.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV +1.15%E +0.250%K +0.319%G +0.004%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -4.93%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-30 16:20
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%EV -11.44%E -6.35%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV +1.15%E +0.250%K +0.319%G +0.004%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -9.25%E -2.94%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-30 18:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.23%EV -12.42%E -6.98%K -15.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV +1.15%E +0.250%K +0.319%G +0.004%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -9.25%E -2.94%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-30 18:40
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.23%EV -12.42%E -6.98%K -15.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV +1.15%E +0.250%K +0.319%G +0.004%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -9.25%E -2.94%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-30 18:40
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.92%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -1.05%E -0.233%K -0.300%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.89%EV -4.93%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-30 18:31
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.83%EV -6.52%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.04%EV -1.05%E -0.233%K -0.300%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-30 18:00
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -1.05%E -0.233%K -0.300%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -7.81%E -2.44%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-30 17:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.05%EV -13.41%E -7.62%K -17.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.97%EV -1.05%E -0.233%K -0.300%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.69%E -3.45%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-30 18:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.05%EV -13.41%E -7.62%K -17.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.97%EV -1.05%E -0.233%K -0.300%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.69%E -3.45%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-30 18:40
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.47%EV -3.57%E -1.82%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.84%EV -2.37%E -0.534%K -0.689%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.69%EV -2.62%E -0.775%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-30 18:50
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.34%EV -3.57%E -1.82%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.88%EV -2.81%E -0.636%K -0.822%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.78%EV -3.20%E -0.952%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.31%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -3.25%E -0.738%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.81%E -2.44%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-30 18:09
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.20%EV -6.52%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.59%EV -4.79%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.81%E -2.44%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-30 17:42
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.69%EV -7.50%E -3.99%K -8.53%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -4.79%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-30 16:19
GTbets🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.97%EV -7.01%E -3.71%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 21.91%EV -5.23%E -1.21%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.11%EV -3.20%E -0.952%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-30 18:40
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV -5.45%E -1.27%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -4.93%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-30 18:48
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.18%EV -6.52%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -6.55%E -1.54%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.84%EV -6.65%E -2.05%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-30 18:50
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -7.65%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.93%E -1.49%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.44%EV -4.06%E -2.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -7.65%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-30 16:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.57%EV -4.55%E -2.35%K -4.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -7.65%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.99%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-30 16:29
Bet Victor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -7.65%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-30 18:49
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.49%EV -7.99%E -4.28%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03%EV -7.65%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-30 18:20
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -7.65%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -10.69%E -3.45%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-30 18:31
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.35%EV -5.53%E -2.88%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -9.85%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.01%EV -7.81%E -2.44%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-30 16:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.61%EV -6.52%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -9.85%E -2.40%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.81%E -2.44%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-30 16:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-30 16:30
PlayUp🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.08%EV -5.53%E -2.88%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -7.81%E -2.44%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-30 18:30
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -6.52%E -3.43%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -7.81%E -2.44%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-30 16:30
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.69%E -3.45%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-30 17:50
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.69%E -3.45%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-30 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.69%E -3.45%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-30 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -6.03%E -3.16%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.69%E -3.45%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-30 17:50
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.37%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -13.57%E -4.52%K -6.78%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-30 18:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.78%EV -11.44%E -6.35%K -14.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.50%EV -12.04%E -3.01%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.72%EV -19.33%E -6.90%K -10.74%G +0.000%16.3%2026-05-30 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.78%EV -9.96%E -5.44%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.43%EV -12.48%E -3.14%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -10.69%E -3.45%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-30 18:37
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.15%EV -5.53%E -2.88%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.40%EV -13.14%E -3.33%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-30 18:30
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.15%EV -5.53%E -2.88%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.40%EV -13.14%E -3.33%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-30 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -7.50%E -3.99%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.17%EV -13.14%E -3.33%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.16%EV -6.37%E -1.96%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-30 16:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.69%EV -10.45%E -5.74%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.72%EV -14.24%E -3.65%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -10.69%E -3.45%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-30 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.25%EV -10.45%E -5.74%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.42%EV -17.54%E -4.68%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.33%EV -10.69%E -3.45%K -5.09%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-30 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.88%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.78%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.34%0.2%2026-05-30 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-05-30 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-05-30 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.66%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-05-30 18:50
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 49.57%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44%1.4%2026-05-30 18:51
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 50.03%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-05-30 18:40