Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.29
assuming max odds 13.00
assuming max odds 6.75
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Saint-Gilloise (Local): 75.37%; Lommel SK (Visit): 9.09%; Draw: 15.54%. For Lommel SK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.01. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.12%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.32%EV -7.30%E -5.93%K -31.72%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +18.12%E +1.39%K +1.51%G +0.274% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.27%EV +4.92%E +0.730%K +0.856%G +0.042% | 3.8% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.32%EV -7.30%E -5.93%K -31.72%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +18.12%E +1.39%K +1.51%G +0.274% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.27%EV +4.92%E +0.730%K +0.856%G +0.042% | 3.8% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.17%EV -8.80%E -7.27%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +18.12%E +1.39%K +1.51%G +0.274% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV +1.04%E +0.160%K +0.189%G +0.002% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -5.03%E -4.00%K -19.36%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +13.57%E +1.09%K +1.18%G +0.160% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -19.17%E -3.69%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -5.03%E -4.00%K -19.36%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +13.57%E +1.09%K +1.18%G +0.160% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -19.17%E -3.69%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +9.03%E +0.753%K +0.821%G +0.074% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +1.04%E +0.160%K +0.189%G +0.002% | 7.1% | 2026-09-12 18:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.67%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV +9.03%E +0.753%K +0.821%G +0.074% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -0.516%E -0.081%K -0.095%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.67%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV +9.03%E +0.753%K +0.821%G +0.074% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -0.516%E -0.081%K -0.095%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.67%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV +9.03%E +0.753%K +0.821%G +0.074% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -0.516%E -0.081%K -0.095%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.67%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV +9.03%E +0.753%K +0.821%G +0.074% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -0.516%E -0.081%K -0.095%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -6.54%E -5.28%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV +1.04%E +0.160%K +0.189%G +0.002% | 5.1% | 2026-09-12 18:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.79%E -4.63%K -23.15%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -6.54%E -5.28%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -10.62%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-12 18:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.58%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -10.62%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.54%EV -10.31%E -8.66%K -54.26%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.54%EV -10.31%E -8.66%K -54.26%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.54%EV -10.31%E -8.66%K -54.26%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.16%EV -11.06%E -9.38%K -61.47%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -2.85%E -0.456%K -0.542%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.69%EV -11.06%E -9.38%K -61.47%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.69%EV -11.06%E -9.38%K -61.47%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.69%EV -11.06%E -9.38%K -61.47%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.51%EV -5.79%E -4.63%K -23.15%G +0.000% | 10.96I 9.12%NM 8.73%EV -0.419%E -0.038%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 6.48I 15.43%NM 14.76%EV +0.728%E +0.112%K +0.133%G +0.001% | 4.6% | 2026-09-12 18:31 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.83%EV -5.79%E -4.63%K -23.15%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -4.60%E -0.438%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -10.62%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-12 18:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -7.30%E -5.93%K -31.72%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.60%E -0.438%K -0.484%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -5.18%E -0.849%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -2.77%E -2.15%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.60%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.00%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 18:31 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.84%EV -3.53%E -2.76%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.58%EV -4.40%E -0.716%K -0.855%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.53%E -2.76%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.90%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.53%E -2.76%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -10.62%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.03%E -4.00%K -19.36%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.79%E -4.63%K -23.15%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.79%E -4.63%K -23.15%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -6.54%E -5.28%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -7.30%E -5.93%K -31.72%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-12 18:33 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-12 18:31 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -5.79%E -4.63%K -23.15%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -22.28%E -4.46%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.04%EV -11.06%E -9.38%K -61.47%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.86%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -14.51%E -2.64%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.42%EV -11.82%E -10.10%K -69.51%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.76%EV -12.95%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.20%EV -11.82%E -10.10%K -69.51%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.80%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.00%EV -14.51%E -2.64%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -13.68%E -1.44%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -13.68%E -1.44%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -14.51%E -2.64%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.93%EV -3.53%E -2.76%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.09%EV -15.96%E -1.72%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -14.51%E -2.64%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.61%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 9.68%EV -15.96%E -1.72%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.71%EV -11.40%E -2.00%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.55%EV -6.54%E -5.28%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.05%EV -16.41%E -1.78%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.55%EV -6.54%E -5.28%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.05%EV -16.41%E -1.78%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.55%EV -6.54%E -5.28%K -27.26%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.05%EV -16.41%E -1.78%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.20%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.89%EV -18.23%E -2.03%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.90%EV -12.95%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-12 18:31 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.40%EV -8.80%E -7.27%K -41.92%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.15%EV -20.50%E -2.34%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.45%EV -16.06%E -2.97%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-12 18:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.09%EV -7.30%E -5.93%K -31.72%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -22.77%E -2.68%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-12 18:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.41%EV -7.30%E -5.93%K -31.72%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -27.31%E -3.41%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.30%EV -8.29%E -1.40%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-12 18:30 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.59% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.36% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05% | 0.7% | 2026-09-12 18:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.59% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.36% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05% | 0.7% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.91% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.83% | 1.1% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.73% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 1.3% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.73% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96% | 1.3% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.65% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.53% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.82% | 2.2% | 2026-09-12 18:40 |