Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Union Saint-Gilloise v Lommel SK

Início: 2026-09-12 18:47 UTC

Final: Union Saint-Gilloise 5–0 Lommel SK

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

54 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Union Saint-Gilloise (Local)

Previsão 75.37%1.33odd justa
EV -2.77%
Vantagem -2.15%
Kelly -9.56%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.29

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
72.73%75.30%75.28%78.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.171.221.221.2985.47%81.69%81.97%77.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lommel SK (Visitante)

Previsão 9.09%11.01odd justa
EV +18.12%
Vantagem +1.39%
Kelly +1.51%
Crescimento +0.274%

pressupondo odds máximas de 13.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
7.28%9.10%9.22%11.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
8.0010.5110.0013.0012.50%9.52%10.00%7.69%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 15.54%6.43odd justa
EV +4.92%
Vantagem +0.730%
Kelly +0.856%
Crescimento +0.042%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
14.27%15.60%15.50%18.18%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.005.976.006.7520.00%16.76%16.67%14.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Union Saint-Gilloise (Local): 75.37%; Lommel SK (Visitante): 9.09%; Empate: 15.54%. Para Lommel SK (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 11.01. 10 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 13.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +18.12%.

Odds das casas de apostas (54 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Svenska Spel🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.32%EV -7.30%E -5.93%K -31.72%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +18.12%E +1.39%K +1.51%G +0.274%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.27%EV +4.92%E +0.730%K +0.856%G +0.042%3.8%2026-09-12 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.32%EV -7.30%E -5.93%K -31.72%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +18.12%E +1.39%K +1.51%G +0.274%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.27%EV +4.92%E +0.730%K +0.856%G +0.042%3.8%2026-09-12 18:30
Grosvenor🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.17%EV -8.80%E -7.27%K -41.92%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +18.12%E +1.39%K +1.51%G +0.274%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.55%EV +1.04%E +0.160%K +0.189%G +0.002%5.7%2026-09-12 18:30
Betsson🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -5.03%E -4.00%K -19.36%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +13.57%E +1.09%K +1.18%G +0.160%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -19.17%E -3.69%K -4.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 18:40
NordicBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.45%EV -5.03%E -4.00%K -19.36%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.50%EV +13.57%E +1.09%K +1.18%G +0.160%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.04%EV -19.17%E -3.69%K -4.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +9.03%E +0.753%K +0.821%G +0.074%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +1.04%E +0.160%K +0.189%G +0.002%7.1%2026-09-12 18:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.67%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV +9.03%E +0.753%K +0.821%G +0.074%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -0.516%E -0.081%K -0.095%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 18:30
Casumo🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.67%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV +9.03%E +0.753%K +0.821%G +0.074%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -0.516%E -0.081%K -0.095%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 18:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.67%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV +9.03%E +0.753%K +0.821%G +0.074%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -0.516%E -0.081%K -0.095%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 18:30
betPARX🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.67%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.77%EV +9.03%E +0.753%K +0.821%G +0.074%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -0.516%E -0.081%K -0.095%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 18:30
Fanatics🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.72%EV -6.54%E -5.28%K -27.26%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.65%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.64%EV +1.04%E +0.160%K +0.189%G +0.002%5.1%2026-09-12 18:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.64%EV -5.79%E -4.63%K -23.15%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.60%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 18:35
Coolbet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.28%EV -6.54%E -5.28%K -27.26%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -10.62%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 18:35
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.09%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-12 18:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.58%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -10.62%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-12 18:35
Unibet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.54%EV -10.31%E -8.66%K -54.26%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-12 18:30
BetRivers🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.54%EV -10.31%E -8.66%K -54.26%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-12 18:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.54%EV -10.31%E -8.66%K -54.26%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-12 18:30
TABtouch🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.16%EV -11.06%E -9.38%K -61.47%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -2.85%E -0.456%K -0.542%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-12 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.69%EV -11.06%E -9.38%K -61.47%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.69%EV -11.06%E -9.38%K -61.47%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.69%EV -11.06%E -9.38%K -61.47%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -0.055%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 18:30
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.51%EV -5.79%E -4.63%K -23.15%G +0.000%10.96I 9.12%NM 8.73%EV -0.419%E -0.038%K -0.042%G +0.000%6.48I 15.43%NM 14.76%EV +0.728%E +0.112%K +0.133%G +0.001%4.6%2026-09-12 18:31
betano_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.83%EV -5.79%E -4.63%K -23.15%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.91%EV -4.60%E -0.438%K -0.484%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -10.62%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 18:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.83%EV -7.30%E -5.93%K -31.72%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -4.60%E -0.438%K -0.484%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.29%EV -5.18%E -0.849%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:40
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -2.77%E -2.15%K -9.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.60%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.00%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-12 18:31
1xBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.84%EV -3.53%E -2.76%K -12.60%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.58%EV -4.40%E -0.716%K -0.855%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-12 18:35
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -3.53%E -2.76%K -12.60%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.90%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-12 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -3.53%E -2.76%K -12.60%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.48%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -10.62%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 18:30
DraftKings🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.03%E -4.00%K -19.36%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 18:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.79%E -4.63%K -23.15%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 18:30
BetUS🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.79%E -4.63%K -23.15%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 18:35
theScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -6.54%E -5.28%K -27.26%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 18:35
Suprabets🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -7.30%E -5.93%K -31.72%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-12 18:33
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 18:35
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 18:30
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 18:31
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 18:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 18:30
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.73%EV -5.79%E -4.63%K -23.15%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -22.28%E -4.46%K -5.57%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 18:40
Paddy Power🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.04%EV -11.06%E -9.38%K -61.47%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.86%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -14.51%E -2.64%K -3.22%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-12 18:30
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.42%EV -11.82%E -10.10%K -69.51%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.76%EV -12.95%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-12 18:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.20%EV -11.82%E -10.10%K -69.51%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.80%EV -9.14%E -0.914%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.00%EV -14.51%E -2.64%K -3.22%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-12 18:30
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.09%EV -8.05%E -6.60%K -36.59%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.64%EV -13.68%E -1.44%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 18:30
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -13.68%E -1.44%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -14.51%E -2.64%K -3.22%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-12 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.93%EV -3.53%E -2.76%K -12.60%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.09%EV -15.96%E -1.72%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -14.51%E -2.64%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 18:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.61%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 9.68%EV -15.96%E -1.72%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.71%EV -11.40%E -2.00%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.55%EV -6.54%E -5.28%K -27.26%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.05%EV -16.41%E -1.78%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.55%EV -6.54%E -5.28%K -27.26%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.05%EV -16.41%E -1.78%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 18:40
BetAnything🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.55%EV -6.54%E -5.28%K -27.26%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.05%EV -16.41%E -1.78%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.20%EV -9.56%E -7.96%K -47.78%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.89%EV -18.23%E -2.03%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.90%EV -12.95%E -2.31%K -2.82%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 18:31
Betclic (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.40%EV -8.80%E -7.27%K -41.92%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.15%EV -20.50%E -2.34%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.45%EV -16.06%E -2.97%K -3.65%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-12 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.09%EV -7.30%E -5.93%K -31.72%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -22.77%E -2.68%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -6.73%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 18:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.41%EV -7.30%E -5.93%K -31.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -27.31%E -3.41%K -3.90%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.30%EV -8.29%E -1.40%K -1.69%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 18:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 77.59%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.36%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05%0.7%2026-09-12 18:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 77.59%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.36%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05%0.7%2026-09-12 18:40
Kalshi◎1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.91%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.83%1.1%2026-09-12 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.73%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96%1.3%2026-09-12 18:40
Matchbook◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.73%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96%1.3%2026-09-12 18:40
Smarkets◎1.26I 79.37%NM 77.65%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.53%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.82%2.2%2026-09-12 18:40