Language:English
RB Salzburg v Sturm Graz
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
RB Salzburg (Local)
Prediction 57.63%1.74fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -4.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.32%57.61%57.56%59.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.611.601.6866.67%61.93%62.50%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sturm Graz (Visit)
Prediction 19.74%5.07fair odd
EV +5.80%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.077%
assuming max odds 5.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.95%19.73%19.75%22.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.494.505.3625.00%22.29%22.22%18.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.63%4.42fair odd
EV -0.438%
Edge -0.100%
Kelly -0.129%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.35%22.66%22.70%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.024.004.4027.78%24.90%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: RB Salzburg (Local): 57.63%; Sturm Graz (Visit): 19.74%; Draw: 22.63%. For Sturm Graz (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.07. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.36, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.80%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.75%EV -5.48%E -3.34%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 5.36I 18.66%NM 17.98%EV +5.80%E +1.08%K +1.33%G +0.077% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 23.27%EV -6.32%E -1.53%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-03 14:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.71%EV -8.36%E -5.26%K -14.18%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV +2.65%E +0.509%K +0.630%G +0.017% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -9.49%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 13:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.71%EV -8.36%E -5.26%K -14.18%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV +2.65%E +0.509%K +0.630%G +0.017% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -9.49%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 12:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -6.64%E -4.10%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -1.30%E -0.260%K -0.326%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.23%E -1.76%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-03 11:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.37%EV -4.33%E -2.61%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 4.98I 20.08%NM 19.12%EV -1.70%E -0.341%K -0.426%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.51%EV -8.36%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-03 06:10 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.53%EV -8.94%E -5.66%K -15.41%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.55%EV -3.28%E -0.669%K -0.840%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -14.01%E -3.69%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-03 14:12 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.85%EV -4.33%E -2.61%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 4.86I 20.58%NM 19.76%EV -4.07%E -0.837%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.29I 23.31%NM 22.39%EV -2.93%E -0.682%K -0.890%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-03 14:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -6.64%E -4.10%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -5.25%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -4.96%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-03 14:56 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.08%EV -8.36%E -5.26%K -14.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -5.25%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -0.438%E -0.100%K -0.129%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-03 14:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.37%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -6.24%E -1.31%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.97%EV -3.83%E -0.902%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-03 10:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.58%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -6.24%E -1.31%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.49%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-03 14:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.54%EV -4.91%E -2.97%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -7.22%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -10.62%E -2.69%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-03 14:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.54%EV -4.91%E -2.97%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -7.22%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -10.62%E -2.69%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-03 14:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -6.64%E -4.10%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -9.20%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%EV -2.70%E -0.628%K -0.818%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-03 14:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.64%E -4.10%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -9.20%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -4.96%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-03 14:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -9.20%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -12.88%E -3.35%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-03 14:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.47%EV -11.25%E -7.30%K -20.83%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.57%EV -9.20%E -2.00%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.96%EV -7.23%E -1.76%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-03 10:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -11.17%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -4.96%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 14:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -11.17%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -4.96%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 14:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -11.17%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -4.96%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 14:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.59%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -11.17%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.94%EV -4.96%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-03 14:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -7.21%E -4.48%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -11.17%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -7.23%E -1.76%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-03 10:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.89%EV -8.94%E -5.66%K -15.41%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -11.17%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -4.96%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-03 14:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.06%EV -11.25%E -7.30%K -20.83%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -11.17%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.08%EV -8.36%E -2.06%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-03 14:38 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 57.87%EV -13.55%E -9.03%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.29%EV -11.17%E -2.48%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.84%EV -14.01%E -3.69%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-05-03 13:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.94%EV -10.09%E -6.47%K -18.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.54%EV -13.15%E -2.99%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -4.96%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-03 10:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.51%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.88%EV -14.53%E -3.36%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -9.49%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-03 14:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.51%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.88%EV -14.53%E -3.36%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -9.49%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-03 14:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.51%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.88%EV -14.53%E -3.36%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -9.49%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-03 14:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.51%EV -7.79%E -4.87%K -12.98%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.88%EV -14.53%E -3.36%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -9.49%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-03 14:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.59%EV -9.52%E -6.06%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.88%EV -14.53%E -3.36%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.53%EV -4.96%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-03 14:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.29%EV -10.67%E -6.88%K -19.40%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -14.53%E -3.36%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -9.49%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-03 14:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.09%EV -13.55%E -9.03%K -27.10%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.12%EV -14.53%E -3.36%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.78%EV -9.49%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-05-03 14:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 56.23%EV -11.82%E -7.73%K -22.31%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 19.87%EV -14.53%E -3.36%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -18.54%E -5.15%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-03 14:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -3.18%E -1.89%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -17.09%E -4.07%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.75%E -3.01%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -3.18%E -1.89%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -17.09%E -4.07%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.75%E -3.01%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -3.18%E -1.89%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -17.09%E -4.07%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.75%E -3.01%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -3.18%E -1.89%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -17.09%E -4.07%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.75%E -3.01%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -3.18%E -1.89%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -17.09%E -4.07%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.75%E -3.01%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -3.18%E -1.89%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -17.09%E -4.07%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.75%E -3.01%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -3.18%E -1.89%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -17.09%E -4.07%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.75%E -3.01%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -3.18%E -1.89%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -17.09%E -4.07%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.75%E -3.01%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -3.18%E -1.89%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -17.09%E -4.07%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.75%E -3.01%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.09%EV -11.25%E -7.30%K -20.83%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%EV -17.09%E -4.07%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.98%EV -9.49%E -2.37%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-03 10:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.32%EV -3.75%E -2.25%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -19.07%E -4.65%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.56%EV -12.88%E -3.35%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.32%EV -3.75%E -2.25%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -19.07%E -4.65%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.56%EV -12.88%E -3.35%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.32%EV -3.75%E -2.25%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -19.07%E -4.65%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.56%EV -12.88%E -3.35%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.32%EV -3.75%E -2.25%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -19.07%E -4.65%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.56%EV -12.88%E -3.35%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.59%EV -7.21%E -4.48%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV -21.04%E -5.26%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -15.15%E -4.04%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-03 12:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.41% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55% | 0.8% | 2026-05-03 14:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.10% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.95% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95% | 1.3% | 2026-05-03 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.10% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.95% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95% | 1.3% | 2026-05-03 14:56 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.91% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.22% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88% | 1.7% | 2026-05-03 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.85% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.43% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.72% | 2.4% | 2026-05-03 14:55 |