Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hartberg v Rapid Wien

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 12:30 UTC

Final: Hartberg 2–2 Rapid Wien

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hartberg (Local)

Prediction 25.30%3.95fair odd
EV +3.46%
Edge +0.845%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 4.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.08%25.27%25.34%28.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.533.524.0932.26%28.29%28.37%24.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rapid Wien (Visit)

Prediction 46.41%2.15fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -3.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.86%46.37%46.38%48.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.002.002.0855.56%50.05%50.00%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.29%3.53fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.526%
Kelly -0.738%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.48%28.35%28.28%29.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.233.253.4733.33%30.94%30.77%28.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hartberg (Local): 25.30%; Rapid Wien (Visit): 46.41%; Draw: 28.29%. For Hartberg (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.09, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.09I 24.45%NM 23.61%EV +3.46%E +0.845%K +1.12%G +0.039%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.81%EV -6.25%E -3.09%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.57%EV -4.37%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-19 12:20
FanDuel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV +1.18%E +0.295%K +0.393%G +0.005%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -9.50%E -4.87%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 12:24
1xBet🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 24.11%EV +0.674%E +0.169%K +0.226%G +0.002%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.23%EV -7.64%E -3.84%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.66%EV -1.82%E -0.526%K -0.738%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-19 12:25
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -0.085%E -0.021%K -0.029%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.38%EV -8.10%E -4.09%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 12:25
DraftKings🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -2.61%E -0.679%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.25%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.21%EV -5.22%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 12:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -2.61%E -0.679%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.38%EV -6.25%E -3.09%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 12:05
LowVig.ag🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -2.61%E -0.679%K -0.917%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.38%EV -6.25%E -3.09%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 12:05
Suprabets🎯3.76I 26.60%NM 24.22%EV -4.89%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -9.50%E -4.87%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.09%EV -11.44%E -3.66%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 12:08
Bovada🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -5.14%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 12:09
Sky Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -5.14%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -11.35%E -5.94%K -12.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -12.29%E -3.97%K -5.85%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-19 12:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.08%EV -5.14%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.08%EV -16.46%E -9.14%K -20.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.85%EV -15.12%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%15.6%2026-04-19 12:25
Coolbet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -6.41%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.24%EV -4.39%E -2.13%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -3.80%E -1.12%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-19 12:25
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -6.41%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -6.25%E -3.09%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 12:25
888sport🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -6.41%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -12.29%E -3.97%K -5.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 12:20
William Hill🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -6.41%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -12.29%E -3.97%K -5.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 11:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -6.41%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -12.29%E -3.97%K -5.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 11:35
888sport (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -6.41%E -1.73%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -12.29%E -3.97%K -5.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 11:35
theScore Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.94%E -2.48%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -4.86%E -2.37%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 11:50
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -8.94%E -2.48%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 09:45
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -8.94%E -2.48%K -3.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-19 11:35
Unibet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -8.94%E -2.48%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.14%EV -11.82%E -6.22%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.99%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-19 12:04
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.12%EV -8.94%E -2.48%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 46.94%EV -14.14%E -7.64%K -16.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.94%EV -15.12%E -5.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-19 12:25
PlayUp🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -10.20%E -2.87%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.74%EV -8.10%E -4.09%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.75%EV -10.88%E -3.45%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-19 12:05
Winamax (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -11.47%E -3.28%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.43%EV -9.03%E -4.61%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 11:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -11.47%E -3.28%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.46%EV -10.89%E -5.67%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.05%EV -10.03%E -3.15%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-19 12:17
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -11.47%E -3.28%K -4.59%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 46.78%EV -13.21%E -7.06%K -15.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.22%EV -12.29%E -3.97%K -5.85%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-19 12:05
Bet Right🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.52%EV -12.73%E -3.69%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 12:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -14.00%E -4.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.50%E -4.87%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 11:35
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -14.00%E -4.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.50%E -4.87%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 11:34
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -14.00%E -4.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.50%E -4.87%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 11:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -14.00%E -4.12%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.50%E -4.87%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-19 11:35
Winamax (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.25%EV -15.26%E -4.56%K -6.49%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.28%EV -11.82%E -6.22%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -9.46%E -2.96%K -4.30%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-19 11:35
BetRivers🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -17.79%E -5.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -3.46%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 00:10
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -17.79%E -5.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -3.46%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 00:10
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -17.79%E -5.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -3.46%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 00:05
Casumo🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -17.79%E -5.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -3.46%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 00:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -17.79%E -5.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -3.46%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 00:05
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -17.79%E -5.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -3.46%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 00:09
Grosvenor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -17.79%E -5.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -3.46%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 00:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -17.79%E -5.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -3.46%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 00:10
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -17.79%E -5.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.05%EV -3.46%E -1.66%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -6.63%E -2.01%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 00:09
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -17.79%E -5.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.10%EV -4.39%E -2.13%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 00:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -17.79%E -5.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.10%EV -4.39%E -2.13%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 00:10
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -17.79%E -5.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.10%EV -4.39%E -2.13%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 00:10
LeoVegas🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -17.79%E -5.47%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.10%EV -4.39%E -2.13%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -8.05%E -2.48%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 00:10
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -21.59%E -6.96%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.86%EV -7.18%E -3.59%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -10.88%E -3.45%K -5.06%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-19 00:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.20I 23.81%NM 23.49%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.90%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.60%1.3%2026-04-19 12:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.20I 23.81%NM 23.49%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.90%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.60%1.3%2026-04-19 12:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.20I 23.81%NM 23.49%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.90%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.60%1.3%2026-04-19 12:25
Smarkets3.85I 25.97%NM 24.88%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.95%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.17%4.4%2026-04-19 12:25