Language:English
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Melbourne Victory (Local)
Prediction 49.56%2.02fair odd
EV +1.10%
Edge +0.538%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.012%
assuming max odds 2.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.02%49.65%49.55%51.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.901.902.0457.14%52.71%52.63%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sydney FC (Visit)
Prediction 25.16%3.97fair odd
EV +0.635%
Edge +0.159%
Kelly +0.212%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.47%25.10%25.15%27.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.593.604.0031.25%27.86%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.28%3.96fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -0.691%
Kelly -0.933%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.33%25.24%25.30%26.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.663.653.8531.25%27.33%27.40%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Victory (Local): 49.56%; Sydney FC (Visit): 25.16%; Draw: 25.28%. For Melbourne Victory (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.04, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.10%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.02%EV +1.10%E +0.538%K +1.06%G +0.012% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.40%EV -11.94%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.58%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-02 08:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.06%EV -1.88%E -0.947%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -7.72%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 08:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.54%EV -2.37%E -1.20%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -13.20%E -3.83%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 08:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.54%EV -2.37%E -1.20%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -13.20%E -3.83%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-02 08:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.32%EV -2.87%E -1.46%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -7.72%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 08:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.32%EV -2.87%E -1.46%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -7.72%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 08:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.32%EV -2.87%E -1.46%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -7.72%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 08:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.32%EV -2.87%E -1.46%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -7.72%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 08:51 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.32%EV -2.87%E -1.46%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -7.72%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 08:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.32%EV -2.87%E -1.46%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -7.72%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 08:51 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.32%EV -2.87%E -1.46%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.41%EV -7.72%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-02 08:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.48%EV -3.36%E -1.72%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.93%EV -2.64%E -0.681%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.59%EV -4.68%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-02 09:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.48%EV -3.36%E -1.72%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.93%EV -2.64%E -0.681%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.59%EV -4.68%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-02 09:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.38%EV -4.85%E -2.53%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 24.30%EV +0.132%E +0.033%K +0.044%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.32%EV -3.42%E -0.895%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-02 09:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.55%EV -5.34%E -2.80%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.86%EV -7.92%E -2.16%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.58%EV -2.66%E -0.691%K -0.933%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-02 09:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.54%EV -5.34%E -2.80%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -5.65%E -1.51%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-02 09:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.37%EV -5.34%E -2.80%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.65%E -1.51%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 09:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.37%EV -5.34%E -2.80%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.65%E -1.51%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 09:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -5.34%E -2.80%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.06%EV -5.65%E -1.51%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -7.72%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 09:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.24%EV -5.34%E -2.80%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -16.98%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -10.24%E -2.89%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-02 08:51 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.24%EV -5.34%E -2.80%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -16.98%E -5.14%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -10.24%E -2.89%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-02 08:51 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -5.84%E -3.07%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -9.43%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-02 09:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -5.84%E -3.07%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 09:21 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.79%EV -5.84%E -3.07%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -11.94%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-02 09:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -5.84%E -3.07%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 09:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.09%EV -6.83%E -3.63%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -3.14%E -0.815%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 09:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.09%EV -6.83%E -3.63%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -3.14%E -0.815%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-02 09:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -6.83%E -3.63%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 09:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -6.83%E -3.63%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.45%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 09:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.60%EV -6.83%E -3.63%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.07%EV -6.41%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.34%EV -6.96%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-02 09:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -6.83%E -3.63%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -13.20%E -3.83%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 09:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.39%EV -7.33%E -3.92%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -6.91%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-02 09:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.16%EV -7.82%E -4.21%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV +0.635%E +0.159%K +0.212%G +0.001% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -3.92%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 09:31 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.46%EV -7.82%E -4.21%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV +0.635%E +0.159%K +0.212%G +0.001% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 09:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -8.32%E -4.50%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.65%E -1.51%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-02 09:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -8.32%E -4.50%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -4.40%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-02 09:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -8.32%E -4.50%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.43%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 09:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -8.32%E -4.50%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.43%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 09:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -8.32%E -4.50%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.43%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 09:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -8.32%E -4.50%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.43%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 09:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.30%EV -8.32%E -4.50%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.34%EV -19.49%E -6.09%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.36%EV -12.77%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-02 08:51 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.59%EV -8.81%E -4.79%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.94%E -3.41%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 09:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.92%EV -10.80%E -6.00%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.28%EV -15.72%E -4.69%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.80%EV -10.24%E -2.89%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-02 09:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.80%EV -10.80%E -6.00%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.31%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.89%EV -19.09%E -5.97%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-02 09:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.96%EV -11.29%E -6.31%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.19%EV -10.69%E -3.01%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -8.98%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-02 09:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 49.64%EV -13.27%E -7.58%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.55%EV -14.46%E -4.25%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -11.51%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-05-02 09:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.49% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.83% | 0.5% | 2026-05-02 09:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.61% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.62% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-05-02 09:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.61% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.62% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-05-02 09:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.61% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.62% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 0.8% | 2026-05-02 09:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.04% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46% | 2.0% | 2026-05-02 09:26 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.98% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.37% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.65% | 2.6% | 2026-05-02 09:35 |