Language:English
Melbourne Victory v Macarthur FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Melbourne Victory (Local)
Prediction 47.89%2.09fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.650%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.02%47.78%47.93%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.911.912.0657.14%52.38%52.36%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Macarthur FC (Visit)
Prediction 27.60%3.62fair odd
EV +6.25%
Edge +1.62%
Kelly +2.19%
Growth +0.137%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.69%27.66%27.56%29.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.463.423.8533.33%28.89%29.20%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.51%4.08fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.490%
Kelly -0.653%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.06%24.56%24.51%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.813.804.0030.77%26.25%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Victory (Local): 47.89%; Macarthur FC (Visit): 27.60%; Draw: 24.51%. For Macarthur FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.47%EV -11.40%E -6.16%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV +6.25%E +1.62%K +2.19%G +0.137% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -1.96%E -0.490%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -12.36%E -6.75%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV +4.87%E +1.28%K +1.74%G +0.085% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -12.36%E -6.75%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV +4.87%E +1.28%K +1.74%G +0.085% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.55%EV -12.83%E -7.05%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV +4.87%E +1.28%K +1.74%G +0.085% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.37%EV -13.31%E -7.36%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV +3.49%E +0.930%K +1.27%G +0.044% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.37%EV -13.31%E -7.36%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV +3.49%E +0.930%K +1.27%G +0.044% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.37%EV -13.31%E -7.36%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV +3.49%E +0.930%K +1.27%G +0.044% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.37%EV -13.31%E -7.36%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV +3.49%E +0.930%K +1.27%G +0.044% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.37%EV -13.31%E -7.36%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV +3.49%E +0.930%K +1.27%G +0.044% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.37%EV -13.31%E -7.36%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV +3.49%E +0.930%K +1.27%G +0.044% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.37%EV -13.31%E -7.36%K -16.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV +3.49%E +0.930%K +1.27%G +0.044% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.55%EV -16.19%E -9.25%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV +0.727%E +0.199%K +0.274%G +0.002% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.55%EV -16.19%E -9.25%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV +0.727%E +0.199%K +0.274%G +0.002% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.86%EV -9.48%E -5.02%K -10.65%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.40%EV -1.48%E -0.415%K -0.576%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 23.74%EV -2.69%E -0.679%K -0.907%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-15 07:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -2.03%E -0.572%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-15 07:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.22%EV -2.03%E -0.572%K -0.797%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-15 07:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -6.61%E -3.39%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.41%E -0.975%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-15 07:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.74%EV -7.09%E -3.65%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -3.41%E -0.975%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-15 07:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -6.61%E -3.39%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -3.41%E -0.975%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-15 07:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -8.52%E -4.46%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -3.41%E -0.975%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 07:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -8.52%E -4.46%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -3.41%E -0.975%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 07:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -8.52%E -4.46%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -3.41%E -0.975%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 07:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -8.52%E -4.46%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -3.41%E -0.975%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-15 07:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.46%EV -2.30%E -1.13%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.90%EV -4.24%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.64%EV -3.67%E -0.935%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -8.52%E -4.46%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -4.79%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-15 07:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -6.17%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -6.61%E -3.39%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.17%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.05%EV -7.09%E -3.65%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.17%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.61%E -3.39%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.17%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.09%E -2.16%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.25%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.21%EV -7.55%E -2.25%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -5.64%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.22%EV -4.69%E -2.36%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.55%E -2.25%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.73%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.22%EV -4.69%E -2.36%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.55%E -2.25%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.73%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.73%EV -9.00%E -4.74%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -7.55%E -2.25%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.60%EV -1.34%E -0.650%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.09%EV -8.93%E -2.71%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.30%EV -3.18%E -0.806%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-15 07:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -8.93%E -2.71%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -8.09%E -2.16%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -7.09%E -3.65%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -8.93%E -2.71%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -4.41%E -1.13%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.61%E -3.39%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.93%E -2.71%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.61%E -3.39%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.93%E -2.71%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.61%E -3.39%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.93%E -2.71%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.61%E -3.39%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.93%E -2.71%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.59%EV -9.96%E -5.30%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.93%E -2.71%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -5.64%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-15 07:35 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -12.36%E -6.75%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -8.93%E -2.71%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -9.31%E -2.52%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-15 07:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -3.26%E -1.61%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -10.31%E -3.17%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -9.31%E -2.52%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.14%EV -3.26%E -1.61%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -10.31%E -3.17%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -9.31%E -2.52%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -9.00%E -4.74%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -10.31%E -3.17%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -1.96%E -0.490%K -0.653%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-15 07:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.38%EV -3.26%E -1.61%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -11.69%E -3.65%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.34%EV -5.64%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -4.21%E -2.11%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -11.69%E -3.65%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.86%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.48%EV -13.79%E -7.66%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -11.69%E -3.65%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -11.76%E -3.27%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-03-15 07:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.32%EV -12.83%E -7.05%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.92%EV -13.07%E -4.15%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -9.31%E -2.52%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-15 07:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.02%EV -12.36%E -6.75%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.07%EV -17.21%E -5.74%K -8.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.91%EV -20.34%E -6.26%K -9.04%G +0.000% | 18.7% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09% | 0.9% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09% | 0.9% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09% | 0.9% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.12% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09% | 0.9% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.18% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.93% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.89% | 1.7% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.53% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.28% | 3.0% | 2026-03-15 07:55 |