Language:English
Melbourne Victory v Adelaide United
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Melbourne Victory (Local)
Prediction 58.77%1.70fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.72%58.73%58.80%59.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.591.601.6766.67%62.94%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Adelaide United (Visit)
Prediction 19.82%5.05fair odd
EV -0.695%
Edge -0.139%
Kelly -0.173%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.01
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.03%19.87%19.82%21.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.644.605.0123.81%21.57%21.74%19.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.41%4.67fair odd
EV -0.446%
Edge -0.096%
Kelly -0.122%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.75%21.39%21.38%23.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.324.334.6527.78%23.16%23.09%21.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Victory (Local): 58.77%; Adelaide United (Visit): 19.82%; Draw: 21.41%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.65, with an expected value of -0.446%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.53%EV -1.86%E -1.11%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.88%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.59%EV -4.73%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.08%EV -3.62%E -2.21%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.27%EV -6.84%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV -5.80%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.43%EV -4.79%E -2.96%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 5.01I 19.96%NM 19.22%EV -0.695%E -0.139%K -0.173%G +0.000% | 4.51I 22.17%NM 21.35%EV -3.44%E -0.763%K -0.981%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.98%EV -4.79%E -2.96%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -6.87%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.98%EV -4.79%E -2.96%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -6.87%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.79%E -2.96%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.79%E -2.91%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -5.80%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.79%E -2.96%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -12.79%E -2.91%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -5.80%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.94%EV -5.38%E -3.34%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.30%EV -0.893%E -0.179%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.75%EV -0.446%E -0.096%K -0.122%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.94%EV -5.38%E -3.34%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.30%EV -0.893%E -0.179%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.75%EV -0.446%E -0.096%K -0.122%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.67%EV -5.38%E -3.34%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.79I 20.88%NM 19.72%EV -5.06%E -1.06%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 4.37I 22.88%NM 21.61%EV -6.44%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.56%EV -5.38%E -3.34%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.95%EV -3.66%E -0.813%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.53%EV -5.38%E -3.34%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -6.84%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.42%EV -5.80%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.38%E -3.34%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -10.80%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -3.66%E -0.813%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.02%EV -5.38%E -3.34%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -10.80%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -5.80%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -5.38%E -3.34%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -7.94%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.21%EV -5.97%E -3.73%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV -4.86%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.66%E -0.813%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.37%EV -5.97%E -3.73%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -5.85%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.97%EV -9.01%E -2.12%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.24%EV -5.97%E -3.73%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -6.84%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -9.01%E -2.12%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.24%EV -5.97%E -3.73%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -6.84%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -9.01%E -2.12%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -5.97%E -3.73%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -7.94%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -5.97%E -3.73%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -7.94%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -5.97%E -3.73%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -7.94%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -5.97%E -3.73%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -7.94%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -5.97%E -3.73%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -7.94%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -5.97%E -3.73%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -7.94%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -5.97%E -3.73%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.22%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%EV -7.94%E -1.85%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.83%EV -6.56%E -4.12%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.03%EV -0.893%E -0.179%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -3.66%E -0.813%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.24%EV -6.56%E -4.12%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -5.85%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -3.66%E -0.813%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.05%EV -6.56%E -4.12%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.36%EV -3.87%E -0.797%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -6.87%E -1.58%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.11%EV -7.14%E -4.52%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -5.85%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -5.80%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.67%EV -7.14%E -4.52%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -5.85%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -9.01%E -2.12%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.59%EV -7.14%E -4.52%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -10.80%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -12.22%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -7.73%E -4.93%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -5.85%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -3.66%E -0.813%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.54%EV -7.73%E -4.93%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -5.85%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -3.66%E -0.813%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.42%EV -7.73%E -4.93%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -2.88%E -0.587%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -7.30%E -1.69%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.26%EV -7.73%E -4.93%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.59%EV -5.85%E -1.23%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -5.80%E -1.32%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.43%EV -7.73%E -4.93%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -10.80%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -7.30%E -1.69%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.73%E -4.93%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.08%E -2.40%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.73%E -4.93%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.08%E -2.40%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.73%E -4.93%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.08%E -2.40%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.31%EV -7.73%E -4.93%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -8.82%E -1.92%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.08%E -2.40%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.79%EV -8.91%E -5.75%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -12.79%E -2.91%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.85%EV -12.22%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.79%EV -8.91%E -5.75%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -12.79%E -2.91%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.85%EV -12.22%E -2.98%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.83%EV -10.67%E -7.02%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -10.80%E -2.40%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -10.08%E -2.40%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 57.41%EV -10.67%E -7.02%K -20.52%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.78%EV -16.75%E -3.99%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.82%EV -14.36%E -3.59%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.01%EV -11.85%E -7.90%K -23.69%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.24%EV -14.77%E -3.43%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.75%EV -14.36%E -3.59%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-02-27 08:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 56.72%EV -11.85%E -7.90%K -23.69%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 19.65%EV -14.17%E -3.27%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.63%EV -22.93%E -6.37%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 17.5% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.57% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69% | 0.7% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.57% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69% | 0.7% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.57% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69% | 0.7% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.57% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.69% | 0.7% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.23% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.88% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.89% | 1.9% | 2026-02-27 08:35 |