Language:English
Melbourne City v Wellington Phoenix FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Melbourne City (Local)
Prediction 52.68%1.90fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.16%52.51%52.75%56.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.731.761.8565.36%57.69%56.82%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit)
Prediction 23.30%4.29fair odd
EV +11.84%
Edge +2.47%
Kelly +3.12%
Growth +0.369%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.55%23.37%23.25%24.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.144.014.8027.78%24.13%24.94%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.02%4.16fair odd
EV +0.891%
Edge +0.212%
Kelly +0.278%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.01%24.11%24.01%26.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.813.804.2030.77%26.24%26.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne City (Local): 52.68%; Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit): 23.30%; Draw: 24.02%. For Wellington Phoenix FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.29. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.84%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.62%EV -12.55%E -7.56%K -19.02%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV +11.84%E +2.47%K +3.12%G +0.369% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -5.11%E -1.29%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.48%EV -13.08%E -7.93%K -20.13%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV +10.68%E +2.25%K +2.85%G +0.304% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -6.32%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.63%EV -13.61%E -8.30%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV +10.68%E +2.25%K +2.85%G +0.304% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -6.32%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.63%EV -13.61%E -8.30%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV +10.68%E +2.25%K +2.85%G +0.304% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -6.32%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.63%EV -13.61%E -8.30%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV +10.68%E +2.25%K +2.85%G +0.304% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -6.32%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.53%EV -15.72%E -9.82%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV +7.18%E +1.56%K +2.00%G +0.143% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -8.72%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.53%EV -15.72%E -9.82%K -26.19%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV +7.18%E +1.56%K +2.00%G +0.143% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -8.72%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -13.61%E -8.30%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV +4.85%E +1.08%K +1.39%G +0.067% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -9.92%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -13.61%E -8.30%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV +4.85%E +1.08%K +1.39%G +0.067% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -9.92%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -13.61%E -8.30%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV +4.85%E +1.08%K +1.39%G +0.067% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -9.92%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -13.61%E -8.30%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV +4.85%E +1.08%K +1.39%G +0.067% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -9.92%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.62%EV -14.66%E -9.05%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.02%EV +4.85%E +1.08%K +1.39%G +0.067% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -11.12%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.44%EV -14.66%E -9.05%K -23.65%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV +4.85%E +1.08%K +1.39%G +0.067% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.61%EV -12.32%E -3.38%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.05%EV -4.13%E -2.27%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.88%EV -1.67%E -0.396%K -0.519%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 24.08%EV -3.67%E -0.916%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.98%EV -5.71%E -3.19%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.01%EV -2.14%E -0.509%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.01%EV +0.891%E +0.212%K +0.278%G +0.002% | 3.5% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.98%EV -5.71%E -3.19%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.01%EV -2.14%E -0.509%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.01%EV +0.891%E +0.212%K +0.278%G +0.002% | 3.5% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.39%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.88%EV -2.14%E -0.509%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.73%EV -2.71%E -0.670%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 55.51%EV -19.40%E -12.68%K -36.61%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.22%EV -2.14%E -0.509%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.27%EV -15.92%E -4.55%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 17.7% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -3.91%E -0.978%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.36%EV -6.76%E -3.82%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -3.91%E -0.978%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.28%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -8.72%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.44%EV -5.71%E -3.19%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.18%EV -5.63%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -7.52%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.96%EV -7.29%E -4.14%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.02%EV -5.63%E -1.39%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.02%EV -6.80%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.35%EV -7.29%E -4.14%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.02I 24.88%NM 23.36%EV -6.33%E -1.58%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.30%EV -3.19%E -0.792%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.61%EV -5.71%E -3.19%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.11%E -1.29%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.15%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -7.52%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.59%EV -6.23%E -3.50%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.32%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -9.92%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.87%E -5.13%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -9.92%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -13.52%E -3.76%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -13.52%E -3.76%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -13.52%E -3.76%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.74%EV -6.76%E -3.82%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -7.96%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -5.11%E -1.29%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -4.13%E -2.27%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -7.96%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -11.12%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.21%EV -4.13%E -2.27%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -7.96%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -11.12%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.32%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.32%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.32%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.32%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.23%EV -7.29%E -4.14%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -8.72%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.68%EV -7.81%E -4.46%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -13.52%E -3.76%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.30%EV -2.55%E -1.38%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -3.91%E -0.978%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -5.18%E -2.88%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -9.92%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.40%EV -7.29%E -4.14%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.81%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -12.32%E -3.38%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 52.76%EV -10.97%E -6.49%K -15.90%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -11.46%E -3.02%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -9.92%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-04-12 04:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 50.16%EV -8.87%E -5.13%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.14%EV -12.62%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.70%EV -21.93%E -6.75%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.30%EV -9.39%E -5.46%K -13.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.85%EV -13.79%E -3.73%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.85%EV -14.72%E -4.15%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.85%EV -8.34%E -4.79%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -16.12%E -4.48%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -13.52%E -3.76%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.29% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18% | 0.9% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.29% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18% | 0.9% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.29% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18% | 0.9% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.81% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.60% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60% | 2.9% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.97% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.06% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.97% | 4.0% | 2026-04-12 05:00 |