Language:English
Velez Sarsfield BA v Lanus
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Velez Sarsfield BA (Local)
Prediction 41.34%2.42fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.81%41.41%41.35%44.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.222.252.3550.00%45.12%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lanus (Visit)
Prediction 26.76%3.74fair odd
EV +0.878%
Edge +0.233%
Kelly +0.317%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.19%26.70%26.82%28.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.473.503.7732.26%28.79%28.57%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.91%3.13fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.353%
Kelly -0.520%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.43%31.89%31.84%33.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.892.903.1040.00%34.60%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Velez Sarsfield BA (Local): 41.34%; Lanus (Visit): 26.76%; Draw: 31.91%. For Lanus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.77, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.878%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.18%EV -2.86%E -1.22%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.67%EV +0.878%E +0.233%K +0.317%G +0.003% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.14%EV -6.84%E -2.34%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-21 18:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.76%EV -5.75%E -2.52%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -0.995%E -0.269%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.50%EV -6.52%E -2.22%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 18:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.76%EV -5.75%E -2.52%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -0.995%E -0.269%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.50%EV -6.52%E -2.22%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 18:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.08%EV -11.54%E -5.39%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -0.995%E -0.269%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -1.09%E -0.353%K -0.520%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.08%EV -11.54%E -5.39%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -0.995%E -0.269%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -1.09%E -0.353%K -0.520%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 18:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.08%EV -11.54%E -5.39%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -0.995%E -0.269%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -1.09%E -0.353%K -0.520%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 18:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.99%E -3.11%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -0.995%E -0.269%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -9.07%E -3.18%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.99%E -3.11%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -0.995%E -0.269%K -0.368%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -10.66%E -3.81%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 18:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.15%EV -14.43%E -6.97%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -3.67%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.46%EV -4.28%E -1.43%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-21 18:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.15%EV -14.43%E -6.97%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -3.67%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.46%EV -4.28%E -1.43%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-21 18:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -9.06%E -4.12%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -3.67%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -12.26%E -4.46%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-21 18:23 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.50%EV -6.99%E -3.11%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.08%EV -4.21%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.42%EV -8.11%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.44%EV -6.58%E -2.91%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -5.01%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.18%EV -7.15%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 18:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.13%EV -15.67%E -7.68%K -15.07%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.36%EV -5.01%E -1.41%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.52%EV -5.88%E -1.99%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-21 18:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -4.93%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -4.28%E -1.43%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 18:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -4.93%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -5.88%E -1.99%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 18:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.99%E -3.11%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.28%E -1.43%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 18:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -4.93%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -8.11%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -4.93%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -8.11%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -6.99%E -3.11%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -8.11%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -6.99%E -3.11%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -9.07%E -3.18%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-21 18:18 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -11.13%E -5.18%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -6.35%E -1.81%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -13.86%E -5.13%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -4.93%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.68%E -2.23%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.88%E -1.99%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 18:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -4.93%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.68%E -2.23%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.47%E -2.58%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 18:22 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -4.93%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.10%EV -7.68%E -2.23%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.47%E -2.58%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.93%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.02%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.28%E -1.43%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 18:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -4.93%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.02%E -2.65%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -9.07%E -3.18%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -4.93%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -11.70%E -3.54%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -7.47%E -2.58%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 18:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -6.99%E -3.11%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -11.70%E -3.54%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -8.11%E -2.82%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-21 18:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -9.06%E -4.12%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -11.70%E -3.54%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -5.88%E -1.99%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-21 18:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.56%EV -11.13%E -5.18%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -11.70%E -3.54%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.36%EV -9.07%E -3.18%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-21 18:07 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -11.13%E -5.18%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -11.70%E -3.54%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.66%E -3.81%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-21 18:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 41.56%EV -17.33%E -8.66%K -17.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.19%EV -11.70%E -3.54%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.25%EV -20.24%E -8.09%K -13.49%G +0.000% | 20.3% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.50%EV -13.19%E -6.28%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.81%EV -13.04%E -4.01%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.69%EV -12.26%E -4.46%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-03-21 18:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -4.93%E -2.14%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -14.37%E -4.49%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.47%E -2.58%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-21 18:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.12%EV -6.99%E -3.11%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -14.37%E -4.49%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -9.07%E -3.18%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-21 18:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.61%EV -13.19%E -6.28%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -15.71%E -4.99%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.66%EV -9.07%E -3.18%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-03-21 18:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.39%EV -13.19%E -6.28%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.36%EV -17.05%E -5.50%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.25%EV -16.09%E -6.12%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-03-21 18:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.74% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.85% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.00% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.14% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.85% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.00% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.14% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.85% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.00% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.14% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 18:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.49% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.39% | 1.9% | 2026-03-21 18:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.70% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.34% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.96% | 2.5% | 2026-03-21 18:25 |