The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Union Santa Fe v Lanus

Kickoff: 2026-08-06 22:00 UTC

Final: Union Santa Fe 2–1 Lanus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 36.36%2.75fair odd
EV +7.25%
Edge +2.46%
Kelly +3.72%
Growth +0.270%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.55%36.61%36.40%40.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.522.502.9543.86%39.68%40.00%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 30.44%3.28fair odd
EV +1.99%
Edge +0.593%
Kelly +0.845%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.53%30.30%30.43%32.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.063.053.3534.48%32.65%32.79%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.20%3.01fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.929%
Kelly -1.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.65%33.08%33.17%34.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.812.802.9338.17%35.62%35.71%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Union Santa Fe (Local): 36.36%; Lanus (Visit): 30.44%; Draw: 33.20%. For Union Santa Fe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.55%EV +7.25%E +2.46%K +3.72%G +0.270%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.78%EV -10.80%E -3.69%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.67%EV -8.03%E -2.90%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -0.020%E -0.007%K -0.012%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.89%EV -7.76%E -2.56%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.98%EV -2.72%E -0.929%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-06 21:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -0.020%E -0.007%K -0.012%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.89%EV -7.76%E -2.56%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.98%EV -2.72%E -0.929%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-06 21:55
BetAnything🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -0.020%E -0.007%K -0.012%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.89%EV -7.76%E -2.56%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.98%EV -2.72%E -0.929%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-06 21:55
Pinnacle🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%EV -1.84%E -0.681%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.43%EV -3.19%E -1.00%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.72%EV -4.71%E -1.64%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-06 21:56
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.60%EV -2.57%E -0.957%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -7.15%E -2.34%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.12%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 21:55
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.60%EV -2.57%E -0.957%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -7.15%E -2.34%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.12%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 21:55
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 21:54
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 21:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -3.72%E -1.28%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-06 21:55
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -7.15%E -2.34%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-06 21:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-06 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-06 21:50
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-06 21:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.85%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.26%EV -6.23%E -2.02%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 21:55
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -11.71%E -4.04%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-06 21:55
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.43%EV -10.19%E -3.45%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-06 21:55
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -2.58%E -0.807%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-06 21:44
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -2.58%E -0.807%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 21:45
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-06 21:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.49%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -10.19%E -3.45%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-06 21:50
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -10.93%E -4.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-06 21:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.55%EV -10.93%E -4.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -11.71%E -4.04%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-06 21:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.97%EV -10.93%E -4.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.39%EV -11.71%E -4.04%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.64%EV -13.01%E -4.97%K -8.03%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-06 21:50
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV -11.65%E -4.80%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -1.06%E -0.326%K -0.471%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-06 21:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -11.65%E -4.80%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -1.06%E -0.326%K -0.471%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.79%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 21:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.71%EV -11.65%E -4.80%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.24%EV -10.19%E -3.45%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.04%EV -10.36%E -3.84%K -6.09%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-06 21:50
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -12.75%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-06 21:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -12.75%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-06 21:50
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -12.75%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -10.36%E -3.84%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-06 21:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -12.75%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -10.36%E -3.84%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-06 21:45
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -12.75%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.36%E -3.84%K -6.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-06 21:45
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -13.47%E -5.66%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -2.58%E -0.807%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-06 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -14.56%E -6.20%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.40%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-06 21:50
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -16.38%E -7.12%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV +1.99%E +0.593%K +0.845%G +0.017%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-06 21:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -16.38%E -7.12%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.36%E -3.84%K -6.09%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-06 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -16.38%E -7.12%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.36%E -3.84%K -6.09%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-06 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.34%EV -17.11%E -7.50%K -13.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -7.15%E -2.34%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.99%EV -12.02%E -4.54%K -7.28%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-06 21:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.70%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.80%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.50%0.2%2026-08-06 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.70%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.80%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.50%0.2%2026-08-06 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.70%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.80%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.50%0.2%2026-08-06 21:55
Smarkets◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.87%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.72%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.41%0.4%2026-08-06 21:55
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.35%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34%2.0%2026-08-06 21:46