The School of Odds

Union Santa Fe v Lanus

2026-08-06 22:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 41.44%2.41fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.16%41.44%40.93%42.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.982.162.172.3251%46%46%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Lanus (Visit)

Prediction 26.68%3.75fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -0.717%
Kelly -0.987%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.28%26.68%27.13%27.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.353.6532%30%30%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 31.88%3.14fair odd
EV -5.32%
Edge -1.79%
Kelly -2.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.18%31.88%31.94%32.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.652.822.802.9738%35%36%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.92%EV -3.86%E -1.66%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -6.62%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.96%EV -5.32%E -1.79%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-20 21:40
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -4.69%E -2.04%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -7.95%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.96%E -2.02%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-20 16:05
FanDuel2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -4.69%E -2.04%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.96%E -2.02%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-20 16:09
Marathon Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 40.92%EV -5.52%E -2.42%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.12%EV -8.22%E -2.39%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.95%EV -6.91%E -2.37%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-20 21:33
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -11.95%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.74%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-20 16:05
Codere (IT)2.17I 46.08%NM 42.68%EV -10.07%E -4.64%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -2.62%E -0.717%K -0.987%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.94%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-20 16:00
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 40.16%EV -10.90%E -5.07%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.86%EV -17.29%E -5.58%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.98%EV -13.93%E -5.16%K -8.19%G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-20 16:05
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -15.05%E -7.34%K -14.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.11%EV -10.62%E -3.17%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.23%EV -10.74%E -3.84%K -5.97%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-20 15:59
Betclic (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 42.87%EV -17.95%E -9.06%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.34%EV -10.62%E -3.17%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 31.79%EV -14.88%E -5.57%K -8.91%G +0.000%17.8%2026-07-20 15:59
Unibet (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 42.77%EV -17.95%E -9.06%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.28%EV -10.62%E -3.17%K -4.52%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.95%EV -15.52%E -5.86%K -9.41%G +0.000%18.1%2026-07-20 16:00
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 42.52%EV -17.95%E -9.06%K -18.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.31%EV -14.62%E -4.57%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.18%EV -13.93%E -5.16%K -8.19%G +0.000%18.8%2026-07-20 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-20 16:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-20 16:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-20 16:10