Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Union Santa Fe v Lanus

Início: 2026-08-06 22:00 UTC

Final: Union Santa Fe 2–1 Lanus

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

38 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Union Santa Fe (Local)

Previsão 36.36%2.75odd justa
EV +7.25%
Vantagem +2.46%
Kelly +3.72%
Crescimento +0.270%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.95

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
32.55%36.61%36.40%40.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.282.522.502.9543.86%39.68%40.00%33.90%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lanus (Visitante)

Previsão 30.44%3.28odd justa
EV +1.99%
Vantagem +0.593%
Kelly +0.845%
Crescimento +0.017%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.53%30.30%30.43%32.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.903.063.053.3534.48%32.65%32.79%29.85%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 33.20%3.01odd justa
EV -2.72%
Vantagem -0.929%
Kelly -1.41%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.93

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
31.65%33.08%33.17%34.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.622.812.802.9338.17%35.62%35.71%34.13%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Union Santa Fe (Local): 36.36%; Lanus (Visitante): 30.44%; Empate: 33.20%. Para Union Santa Fe (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.75. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.95, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +7.25%.

Odds das casas de apostas (38 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.55%EV +7.25%E +2.46%K +3.72%G +0.270%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.78%EV -10.80%E -3.69%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.67%EV -8.03%E -2.90%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 21:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -0.020%E -0.007%K -0.012%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.89%EV -7.76%E -2.56%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.98%EV -2.72%E -0.929%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-06 21:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -0.020%E -0.007%K -0.012%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.89%EV -7.76%E -2.56%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.98%EV -2.72%E -0.929%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-06 21:55
BetAnything🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV -0.020%E -0.007%K -0.012%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.89%EV -7.76%E -2.56%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.98%EV -2.72%E -0.929%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-06 21:55
Pinnacle🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%EV -1.84%E -0.681%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.43%EV -3.19%E -1.00%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.72%EV -4.71%E -1.64%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-06 21:56
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.60%EV -2.57%E -0.957%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -7.15%E -2.34%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.12%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 21:55
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.60%EV -2.57%E -0.957%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -7.15%E -2.34%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.12%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 21:55
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 21:54
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.35%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.16%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 21:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -3.72%E -1.28%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-06 21:55
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -7.15%E -2.34%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-06 21:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-06 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-06 21:50
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-06 21:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.85%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.26%EV -6.23%E -2.02%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 21:55
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -5.47%E -2.11%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -11.71%E -4.04%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-06 21:55
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.43%EV -10.19%E -3.45%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-06 21:55
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -2.58%E -0.807%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-06 21:44
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -2.58%E -0.807%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 21:45
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-06 21:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.49%EV -9.11%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -10.19%E -3.45%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-06 21:50
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -10.93%E -4.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-06 21:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.55%EV -10.93%E -4.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -11.71%E -4.04%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-06 21:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.97%EV -10.93%E -4.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.39%EV -11.71%E -4.04%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.64%EV -13.01%E -4.97%K -8.03%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-06 21:50
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.59%EV -11.65%E -4.80%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -1.06%E -0.326%K -0.471%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-06 21:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.46%EV -11.65%E -4.80%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -1.06%E -0.326%K -0.471%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.79%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-06 21:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.71%EV -11.65%E -4.80%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.24%EV -10.19%E -3.45%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.04%EV -10.36%E -3.84%K -6.09%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-06 21:50
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -12.75%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-06 21:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -12.75%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -7.04%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-06 21:50
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -12.75%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -10.36%E -3.84%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-06 21:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.55%EV -12.75%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.07%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -10.36%E -3.84%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-06 21:45
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -12.75%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -10.36%E -3.84%K -6.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-06 21:45
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.91%EV -13.47%E -5.66%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -2.58%E -0.807%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.15%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-06 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.91%EV -14.56%E -6.20%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -8.67%E -2.89%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.40%EV -8.70%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-06 21:50
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -16.38%E -7.12%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV +1.99%E +0.593%K +0.845%G +0.017%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -5.38%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-06 21:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -16.38%E -7.12%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.36%E -3.84%K -6.09%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-06 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -16.38%E -7.12%K -12.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -5.63%E -1.81%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -10.36%E -3.84%K -6.09%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-06 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.34%EV -17.11%E -7.50%K -13.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -7.15%E -2.34%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.99%EV -12.02%E -4.54%K -7.28%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-06 21:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.70%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.80%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.50%0.2%2026-08-06 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.70%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.80%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.50%0.2%2026-08-06 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.70%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.80%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.50%0.2%2026-08-06 21:55
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.87%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.72%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.41%0.4%2026-08-06 21:55
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.35%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34%2.0%2026-08-06 21:46