Language:English
Sarmiento de Junin v Independiente Rivadavia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sarmiento de Junin (Local)
Prediction 32.72%3.06fair odd
EV +0.766%
Edge +0.249%
Kelly +0.368%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.67%32.59%32.64%34.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.862.863.0837.04%34.97%34.97%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente Rivadavia (Visit)
Prediction 35.79%2.79fair odd
EV -0.860%
Edge -0.310%
Kelly -0.486%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.90%35.98%35.90%38.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.582.602.7742.02%38.80%38.46%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.49%3.18fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.765%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.12%31.44%31.47%32.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.963.003.1036.36%33.74%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sarmiento de Junin (Local): 32.72%; Independiente Rivadavia (Visit): 35.79%; Draw: 31.49%. For Sarmiento de Junin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.08, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.766%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.43%EV +0.766%E +0.249%K +0.368%G +0.003% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.52%EV -5.15%E -1.95%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 32.05%EV -4.89%E -1.62%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-03 19:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -0.215%E -0.071%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -10.52%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -3.95%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-03 19:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.01%EV -1.85%E -0.617%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.44%EV -3.01%E -1.11%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.55%EV -7.10%E -2.41%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -1.85%E -0.617%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -10.52%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -3.95%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -1.85%E -0.617%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -10.52%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -3.95%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-03 19:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -1.85%E -0.617%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -14.82%E -6.23%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -5.52%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-03 19:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.09%EV -4.47%E -1.53%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.65%EV -3.01%E -1.11%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.27%EV -2.69%E -0.869%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -5.12%E -1.77%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.56%EV -5.15%E -1.95%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.10%E -2.41%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-03 19:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -5.12%E -1.77%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.94%E -2.67%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -5.52%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -5.12%E -1.77%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -5.15%E -1.95%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-03 19:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -5.12%E -1.77%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.17%EV -5.15%E -1.95%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.70%EV -10.24%E -3.59%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-03 19:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -5.12%E -1.77%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.94%E -2.67%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-03 19:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -5.12%E -1.77%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.37%EV -13.03%E -5.36%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -5.12%E -1.77%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.37%EV -13.03%E -5.36%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-03 19:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -5.78%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.29%EV -5.15%E -1.95%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-03 19:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -5.78%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -14.10%E -5.88%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -5.52%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-03 19:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -5.78%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -14.10%E -5.88%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -9.30%E -3.23%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.81%EV -6.43%E -2.25%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.90%EV -0.860%E -0.310%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.29%EV -2.69%E -0.869%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.81%EV -6.43%E -2.25%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.90%EV -0.860%E -0.310%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.29%EV -2.69%E -0.869%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -6.76%E -2.37%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -12.31%E -5.03%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -5.52%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.96%EV -7.41%E -2.62%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.20%EV -5.15%E -1.95%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.84%EV -7.73%E -2.64%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-03 19:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.77%EV -7.74%E -2.74%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.01%EV -2.65%E -0.974%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -3.95%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.77%EV -7.74%E -2.74%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.01%EV -2.65%E -0.974%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -3.95%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84%EV -8.39%E -3.00%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.09%EV -3.37%E -1.25%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -3.95%E -1.29%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-03 19:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.45%EV -8.39%E -3.00%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.34%EV -5.15%E -1.95%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -5.52%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-03 19:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -8.39%E -3.00%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -6.23%E -2.38%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -5.52%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-03 19:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -8.39%E -3.00%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -6.94%E -2.67%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -11.82%E -4.22%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.39%E -3.00%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.96%EV -12.31%E -5.03%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.70%EV -7.10%E -2.41%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.28%EV -8.39%E -3.00%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -8.73%E -3.42%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.28%EV -11.82%E -4.22%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.75%EV -8.39%E -3.00%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.05%EV -14.10%E -5.88%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.20%EV -10.24%E -3.59%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-03 19:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 32.27%EV -9.38%E -3.38%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.04%EV -11.24%E -4.53%K -7.59%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.69%EV -11.19%E -3.97%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-03 19:33 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -10.03%E -3.65%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.74%EV -6.23%E -2.38%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -2.37%E -0.765%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-03 19:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -10.03%E -3.65%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.94%E -2.67%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -2.37%E -0.765%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.22%EV -10.03%E -3.65%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.82%EV -8.73%E -3.42%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.96%EV -7.10%E -2.41%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-03 19:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -10.03%E -3.65%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -10.52%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -13.39%E -4.87%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-03 19:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -11.67%E -4.32%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -5.15%E -1.95%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -5.52%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -11.67%E -4.32%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.52%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-03 19:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.28% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10% | 0.5% | 2026-08-03 19:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.28% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10% | 0.5% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.28% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10% | 0.5% | 2026-08-03 19:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.04% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.67% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.28% | 1.6% | 2026-08-03 19:40 |
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