Language:English
River Plate v Rosario Central
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
River Plate (Local)
Prediction 43.56%2.30fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.685%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.20%43.88%43.58%46.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.102.102.2652.36%47.71%47.62%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rosario Central (Visit)
Prediction 24.66%4.06fair odd
EV +5.28%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.62%
Growth +0.085%
assuming max odds 4.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.16%24.38%24.56%25.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.833.804.2728.99%26.09%26.32%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.78%3.15fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -0.793%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.66%31.74%31.86%33.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.902.903.0737.04%34.52%34.48%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: River Plate (Local): 43.56%; Rosario Central (Visit): 24.66%; Draw: 31.78%. For Rosario Central (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.06. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.27, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.84%EV -8.08%E -3.83%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.65%EV +5.28%E +1.24%K +1.62%G +0.085% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.51%EV -2.43%E -0.793%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-16 22:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.81%EV -10.26%E -4.98%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.20%EV +4.79%E +1.13%K +1.47%G +0.071% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.81%EV -10.26%E -4.98%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.20%EV +4.79%E +1.13%K +1.47%G +0.071% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -10.70%E -5.22%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV +3.56%E +0.847%K +1.11%G +0.040% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-16 22:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -12.00%E -5.94%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV +3.56%E +0.847%K +1.11%G +0.040% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -4.66%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-16 22:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -10.70%E -5.22%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV +3.56%E +0.847%K +1.11%G +0.040% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.43%EV -8.79%E -3.06%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-16 22:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.92%EV -13.74%E -6.94%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV +1.09%E +0.266%K +0.352%G +0.004% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.90%EV -9.43%E -3.31%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.92%EV -13.74%E -6.94%K -14.03%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV +1.09%E +0.266%K +0.352%G +0.004% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.90%EV -9.43%E -3.31%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.16%EV -12.87%E -6.44%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -1.37%E -0.344%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 22:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.79%EV -15.05%E -7.72%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -1.37%E -0.344%K -0.458%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.89%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.47%EV -1.55%E -0.685%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.43%EV -3.10%E -0.789%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.10%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.49%EV -4.60%E -2.10%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.23%EV -3.10%E -0.789%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.49%EV -4.60%E -2.10%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.23%EV -3.10%E -0.789%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.49%EV -4.60%E -2.10%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.23%EV -3.10%E -0.789%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -12.87%E -6.44%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -3.84%E -0.985%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.47%EV -12.60%E -4.58%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-16 22:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -5.07%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 22:21 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.48%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -5.07%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-16 22:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.43%EV -5.81%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.18%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -6.31%E -1.66%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -6.31%E -1.66%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -7.54%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -4.66%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -7.54%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.66%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-16 22:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -8.77%E -2.37%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 22:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.36%EV -3.29%E -1.48%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -10.00%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.36%EV -3.29%E -1.48%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -10.00%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.07%EV -14.18%E -7.20%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.78%EV -10.00%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.15%EV -14.19%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.54%EV -10.70%E -5.22%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 24.59%EV -10.50%E -2.89%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.88%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-05-16 22:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -4.16%E -1.89%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -4.16%E -1.89%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -4.66%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-16 22:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 44.18%EV -13.31%E -6.69%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.42%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.40%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.68%EV -16.79%E -8.79%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.71%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.61%EV -14.19%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 17.2% | 2026-05-16 22:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -13.70%E -3.92%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.59%EV -12.87%E -6.44%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.27%EV -14.94%E -4.33%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.14%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13% | 0.6% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13% | 0.6% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13% | 0.6% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13% | 0.6% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.18% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.81% | 1.6% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.71% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.27% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.02% | 3.1% | 2026-05-16 22:25 |