A Escola das Odds

River Plate v Rosario Central

Início: 2026-05-16 22:30 UTC

Final: River Plate 1–0 Rosario Central

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

37 casas de apostas (14 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

River Plate (Local)

Previsão 43.56%2.30odd justa
EV -1.55%
Vantagem -0.685%
Kelly -1.23%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.26

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.20%43.88%43.58%46.42%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.912.102.102.2652.36%47.71%47.62%44.25%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Rosario Central (Visitante)

Previsão 24.66%4.06odd justa
EV +5.28%
Vantagem +1.24%
Kelly +1.62%
Crescimento +0.085%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.27

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.16%24.38%24.56%25.82%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.453.833.804.2728.99%26.09%26.32%23.42%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 31.78%3.15odd justa
EV -2.43%
Vantagem -0.793%
Kelly -1.18%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.07

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.66%31.74%31.86%33.10%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.702.902.903.0737.04%34.52%34.48%32.57%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (37 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle2.11I 47.39%NM 45.84%EV -8.08%E -3.83%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.65%EV +5.28%E +1.24%K +1.62%G +0.085%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.51%EV -2.43%E -0.793%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 22:15
Unibet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.81%EV -10.26%E -4.98%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.20%EV +4.79%E +1.13%K +1.47%G +0.071%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 22:25
Unibet (SE)2.06I 48.54%NM 45.81%EV -10.26%E -4.98%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.20%EV +4.79%E +1.13%K +1.47%G +0.071%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 22:25
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -10.70%E -5.22%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV +3.56%E +0.847%K +1.11%G +0.040%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 22:14
BetRivers2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -12.00%E -5.94%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV +3.56%E +0.847%K +1.11%G +0.040%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.26%EV -4.66%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 22:00
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -10.70%E -5.22%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV +3.56%E +0.847%K +1.11%G +0.040%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.43%EV -8.79%E -3.06%K -4.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 22:15
LiveScore Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 45.92%EV -13.74%E -6.94%K -14.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV +1.09%E +0.266%K +0.352%G +0.004%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.90%EV -9.43%E -3.31%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 22:25
Virgin Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 45.92%EV -13.74%E -6.94%K -14.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV +1.09%E +0.266%K +0.352%G +0.004%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.90%EV -9.43%E -3.31%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-16 22:25
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 45.16%EV -12.87%E -6.44%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -1.37%E -0.344%K -0.458%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 22:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 45.79%EV -15.05%E -7.72%K -15.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -1.37%E -0.344%K -0.458%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.89%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 22:25
1xBet2.26I 44.25%NM 42.47%EV -1.55%E -0.685%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.43%EV -3.10%E -0.789%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.10%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-16 22:25
LowVig.ag2.19I 45.66%NM 43.49%EV -4.60%E -2.10%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.23%EV -3.10%E -0.789%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 22:25
BetOnline.ag2.19I 45.66%NM 43.49%EV -4.60%E -2.10%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.23%EV -3.10%E -0.789%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 22:25
BetAnything2.19I 45.66%NM 43.49%EV -4.60%E -2.10%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.23%EV -3.10%E -0.789%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 22:25
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -12.87%E -6.44%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -3.84%E -0.985%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.47%EV -12.60%E -4.58%K -7.20%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 22:15
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -5.07%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 22:21
Bovada2.15I 46.51%NM 43.48%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.28%EV -5.07%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 22:24
Marathon Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.43%EV -5.81%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.18%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 22:25
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -6.31%E -1.66%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-16 22:25
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -6.31%E -1.66%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 22:25
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -7.54%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -4.66%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 22:25
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -7.54%E -2.01%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.66%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-16 22:20
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.34%E -2.95%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -8.77%E -2.37%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-16 22:20
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 42.36%EV -3.29%E -1.48%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -10.00%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 22:25
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 42.36%EV -3.29%E -1.48%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -10.00%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 22:25
NetBet (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 44.07%EV -14.18%E -7.20%K -14.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.78%EV -10.00%E -2.74%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.15%EV -14.19%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%15.2%2026-05-16 22:25
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.54%EV -10.70%E -5.22%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.59%EV -10.50%E -2.89%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.88%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 22:24
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -4.16%E -1.89%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 22:25
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -4.16%E -1.89%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 22:25
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -4.66%E -1.55%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-16 22:25
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -6.25%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-16 22:25
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 22:20
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 22:25
Unibet (FR)1.99I 50.25%NM 44.18%EV -13.31%E -6.69%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.42%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.40%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-16 22:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.68%EV -16.79%E -8.79%K -18.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.71%EV -11.24%E -3.12%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.61%EV -14.19%E -5.26%K -8.35%G +0.000%17.2%2026-05-16 22:10
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -8.52%E -4.06%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -13.70%E -3.92%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -7.84%E -2.70%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 22:25
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.59%EV -12.87%E -6.44%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.27%EV -14.94%E -4.33%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.14%EV -11.01%E -3.93%K -6.12%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-16 22:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%0.6%2026-05-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%0.6%2026-05-16 22:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%0.6%2026-05-16 22:25
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.66%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.13%0.6%2026-05-16 22:25
Smarkets2.28I 43.86%NM 43.18%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.01%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.81%1.6%2026-05-16 22:25
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 44.71%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.27%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.02%3.1%2026-05-16 22:25