Language:English
River Plate v Independiente Rivadavia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
River Plate (Local)
Prediction 55.34%1.81fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -4.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.35%55.31%55.30%57.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.661.681.7564.10%60.07%59.52%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente Rivadavia (Visit)
Prediction 17.68%5.66fair odd
EV +8.56%
Edge +1.39%
Kelly +1.67%
Growth +0.143%
assuming max odds 6.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.65%17.73%17.67%19.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.285.256.1421.05%18.95%19.05%16.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.98%3.71fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -0.647%
Kelly -0.895%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.05%26.95%27.03%27.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.423.403.6231.25%29.28%29.41%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: River Plate (Local): 55.34%; Independiente Rivadavia (Visit): 17.68%; Draw: 26.98%. For Independiente Rivadavia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.66. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.56%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.51%EV -5.92%E -3.48%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 6.14I 16.29%NM 15.65%EV +8.56%E +1.39%K +1.67%G +0.143% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.85%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.26%EV -9.24%E -5.63%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.92%EV +4.32%E +0.732%K +0.881%G +0.038% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-06 22:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.71%EV -10.90%E -6.77%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV +4.32%E +0.732%K +0.881%G +0.038% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-06 22:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.39%EV -5.37%E -3.14%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.68I 17.61%NM 16.98%EV +0.429%E +0.076%K +0.092%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.64%EV -2.34%E -0.647%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-06 21:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.39%EV -5.37%E -3.14%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.68I 17.61%NM 16.98%EV +0.429%E +0.076%K +0.092%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.64%EV -2.34%E -0.647%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-06 21:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.95%EV -6.47%E -3.83%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.04%EV -1.87%E -0.337%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.57%EV -5.37%E -3.14%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.28%EV -2.75%E -0.501%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.52%EV -8.13%E -4.90%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -2.75%E -0.501%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -4.23%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.52%EV -8.13%E -4.90%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -2.75%E -0.501%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -4.23%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.26%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -2.75%E -0.501%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-06 19:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.31%EV -11.45%E -7.16%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.38%EV -2.75%E -0.501%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.31%EV -11.45%E -7.16%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.38%EV -2.75%E -0.501%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.54%EV -5.92%E -3.48%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.48%EV -4.52%E -0.837%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.81%EV -4.81%E -2.80%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.46%EV -4.52%E -0.837%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -8.28%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 21:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.81%EV -4.81%E -2.80%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.46%EV -4.52%E -0.837%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -8.28%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 21:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.24%EV -9.24%E -5.63%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.40%EV -6.29%E -1.19%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -5.37%E -3.14%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -7.17%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -4.23%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.92%E -3.48%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -7.17%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.19%EV -6.47%E -3.83%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -7.17%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.15%EV -6.47%E -3.83%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -7.17%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.09%EV -7.20%E -2.09%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-06 22:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -7.03%E -4.18%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.57%EV -7.17%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -9.63%E -2.87%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-06 22:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.65%EV -11.45%E -7.16%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.96%EV -7.17%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -12.33%E -3.79%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-06 22:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.95%EV -5.92%E -3.48%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.97%EV -8.06%E -1.55%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-06 22:07 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.29%EV -10.35%E -6.39%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.56%EV -9.83%E -1.93%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-06 22:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.15%E -1.80%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -8.28%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -5.92%E -3.48%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 11:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -5.92%E -3.48%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 11:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.94%EV -12.56%E -7.95%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -9.63%E -2.87%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.94%EV -12.56%E -7.95%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -9.63%E -2.87%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.87%EV -13.11%E -8.35%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.54%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.58%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.03%EV -13.67%E -8.76%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.49%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.25%EV -9.24%E -5.63%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.49%EV -13.36%E -2.73%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.26%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.77%EV -7.03%E -4.18%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -13.36%E -2.73%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -12.33%E -3.79%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-06 11:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.59%EV -10.90%E -6.77%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.94%EV -13.36%E -2.73%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.47%EV -13.67%E -4.27%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-06 22:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.35%EV -3.71%E -2.13%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -15.13%E -3.15%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.28%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.13%EV -10.35%E -6.39%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -15.13%E -3.15%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -8.28%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -4.26%E -2.46%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -16.01%E -3.37%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -2.88%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 21:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.68% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81% | 0.8% | 2026-09-06 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.83% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72% | 1.1% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.83% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72% | 1.1% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.33% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.81% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.86% | 2.0% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.33% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.48% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19% | 3.2% | 2026-09-06 22:05 |