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River Plate v Independiente Rivadavia
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
River Plate (Local)
Predicción 55.34%1.81momio equitativo
EV -3.15%
Ventaja -1.80%
Kelly -4.20%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.35%55.31%55.30%57.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.661.681.7564.10%60.07%59.52%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Independiente Rivadavia (Visitante)
Predicción 17.68%5.66momio equitativo
EV +8.56%
Ventaja +1.39%
Kelly +1.67%
Crecimiento +0.143%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.14
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.65%17.73%17.67%19.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.755.285.256.1421.05%18.95%19.05%16.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 26.98%3.71momio equitativo
EV -2.34%
Ventaja -0.647%
Kelly -0.895%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.62
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.05%26.95%27.03%27.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.423.403.6231.25%29.28%29.41%27.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: River Plate (Local): 55.34%; Independiente Rivadavia (Visitante): 17.68%; Empate: 26.98%. Para Independiente Rivadavia (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.66. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.14, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +8.56%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (37 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.51%EV -5.92%E -3.48%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 6.14I 16.29%NM 15.65%EV +8.56%E +1.39%K +1.67%G +0.143% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.85%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.26%EV -9.24%E -5.63%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.92%EV +4.32%E +0.732%K +0.881%G +0.038% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-06 22:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.71%EV -10.90%E -6.77%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.75%EV +4.32%E +0.732%K +0.881%G +0.038% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-06 22:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.39%EV -5.37%E -3.14%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.68I 17.61%NM 16.98%EV +0.429%E +0.076%K +0.092%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.64%EV -2.34%E -0.647%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-06 21:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.39%EV -5.37%E -3.14%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.68I 17.61%NM 16.98%EV +0.429%E +0.076%K +0.092%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.64%EV -2.34%E -0.647%K -0.895%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-06 21:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.95%EV -6.47%E -3.83%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.04%EV -1.87%E -0.337%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.57%EV -5.37%E -3.14%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.28%EV -2.75%E -0.501%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.52%EV -8.13%E -4.90%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -2.75%E -0.501%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -4.23%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.52%EV -8.13%E -4.90%K -12.32%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -2.75%E -0.501%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -4.23%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.26%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -2.75%E -0.501%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-06 19:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.31%EV -11.45%E -7.16%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.38%EV -2.75%E -0.501%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.31%EV -11.45%E -7.16%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.38%EV -2.75%E -0.501%K -0.612%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.54%EV -5.92%E -3.48%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.48%EV -4.52%E -0.837%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.81%EV -4.81%E -2.80%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.46%EV -4.52%E -0.837%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -8.28%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 21:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.81%EV -4.81%E -2.80%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.46%EV -4.52%E -0.837%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -8.28%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 21:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.24%EV -9.24%E -5.63%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.40%EV -6.29%E -1.19%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -5.37%E -3.14%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -7.17%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -4.23%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.92%E -3.48%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -7.17%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -5.58%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.19%EV -6.47%E -3.83%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -7.17%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.15%EV -6.47%E -3.83%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -7.17%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.09%EV -7.20%E -2.09%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-06 22:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.90%EV -7.03%E -4.18%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.57%EV -7.17%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -9.63%E -2.87%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-06 22:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.65%EV -11.45%E -7.16%K -19.09%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.96%EV -7.17%E -1.37%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -12.33%E -3.79%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-06 22:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.95%EV -5.92%E -3.48%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.97%EV -8.06%E -1.55%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-06 22:07 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.29%EV -10.35%E -6.39%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.56%EV -9.83%E -1.93%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-06 22:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.15%E -1.80%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -8.28%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -5.92%E -3.48%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 11:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -5.92%E -3.48%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 11:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.94%EV -12.56%E -7.95%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -9.63%E -2.87%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.94%EV -12.56%E -7.95%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -9.63%E -2.87%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.87%EV -13.11%E -8.35%K -23.01%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.54%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.58%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.03%EV -13.67%E -8.76%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -11.59%E -2.32%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.49%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.25%EV -9.24%E -5.63%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.49%EV -13.36%E -2.73%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.26%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.77%EV -7.03%E -4.18%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.44%EV -13.36%E -2.73%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -12.33%E -3.79%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-06 11:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.59%EV -10.90%E -6.77%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.94%EV -13.36%E -2.73%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.47%EV -13.67%E -4.27%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-06 22:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.35%EV -3.71%E -2.13%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -15.13%E -3.15%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -8.28%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.13%EV -10.35%E -6.39%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -15.13%E -3.15%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -8.28%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-06 22:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -4.26%E -2.46%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -16.01%E -3.37%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -2.88%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 21:55 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.68% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.50% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81% | 0.8% | 2026-09-06 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.83% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72% | 1.1% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.83% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.45% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72% | 1.1% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.33% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.81% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.86% | 2.0% | 2026-09-06 22:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.33% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.48% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19% | 3.2% | 2026-09-06 22:05 |