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Independiente v Defensa y Justicia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Independiente (Local)
Prediction 52.41%1.91fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -3.57%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.75%52.52%52.48%54.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.761.771.8560.61%56.95%56.50%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Defensa y Justicia (Visit)
Prediction 18.49%5.41fair odd
EV +10.01%
Edge +1.68%
Kelly +2.02%
Growth +0.202%
assuming max odds 5.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.13%18.38%18.50%20.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.995.005.9522.73%20.03%20.00%16.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.10%3.44fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.313%
Kelly -0.444%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.69%29.10%29.02%29.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.193.203.4034.72%31.38%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente (Local): 52.41%; Defensa y Justicia (Visit): 18.49%; Draw: 29.10%. For Defensa y Justicia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.41. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.01%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.24%EV -7.23%E -4.08%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 16.13%EV +10.01%E +1.68%K +2.02%G +0.202% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.63%EV -5.72%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.64%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 5.83I 17.15%NM 16.56%EV +7.79%E +1.34%K +1.61%G +0.126% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.80%EV -5.72%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-04-18 21:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.60%EV -6.70%E -3.77%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.59%EV +6.31%E +1.10%K +1.33%G +0.084% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.81%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 15:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.60%EV -6.70%E -3.77%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.59%EV +6.31%E +1.10%K +1.33%G +0.084% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.81%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-18 15:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.12%EV -8.28%E -4.73%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV +1.69%E +0.307%K +0.375%G +0.006% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-18 20:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.02%EV -10.37%E -6.07%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.11%EV -0.162%E -0.030%K -0.037%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-18 22:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -2.94%E -0.559%K -0.691%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-18 20:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.48%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -2.94%E -0.559%K -0.691%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-18 15:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.81%EV -7.23%E -4.08%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -3.86%E -0.742%K -0.919%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.05%EV -6.18%E -3.45%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.09%EV -4.78%E -0.929%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.86%EV -9.21%E -2.95%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-18 22:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -7.23%E -4.08%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -7.56%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -1.07%E -0.313%K -0.444%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-18 22:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -7.23%E -4.08%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -7.56%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -1.07%E -0.313%K -0.444%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-18 22:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.27%EV -7.75%E -4.41%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.75%EV -7.56%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.98%EV -2.52%E -0.752%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-18 22:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.90%EV -7.23%E -4.08%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -7.56%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -3.97%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-18 15:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.43%EV -7.23%E -4.08%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -7.56%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-18 15:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.43%EV -7.23%E -4.08%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -7.56%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.72%EV -8.28%E -4.73%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.56%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.83%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -8.28%E -4.73%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.56%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-18 14:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.96%EV -10.90%E -6.41%K -15.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -7.56%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.04%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.48%EV -10.90%E -6.41%K -15.57%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.55%EV -9.41%E -1.92%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.97%EV -5.43%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-18 22:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.48%EV -10.90%E -6.41%K -15.57%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.55%EV -9.41%E -1.92%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.97%EV -5.43%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-18 22:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -3.04%E -1.64%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.37%EV -10.33%E -2.13%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -8.34%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.79%EV -3.04%E -1.64%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.37%EV -10.33%E -2.13%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -8.34%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.56%EV -10.90%E -6.41%K -15.57%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.42%EV -10.33%E -2.13%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 29.01%EV -10.38%E -3.37%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-18 22:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.56%EV -11.95%E -7.11%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -11.25%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -5.43%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-18 22:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.86%EV -11.95%E -7.11%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.50%EV -11.25%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-18 22:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.06%EV -10.90%E -6.41%K -15.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.44%EV -11.25%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -12.70%E -4.23%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.55%EV -4.08%E -2.23%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -12.18%E -2.56%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -3.97%E -1.20%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-18 22:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.51%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -12.18%E -2.56%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -6.88%E -2.15%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-18 22:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.75%EV -4.61%E -2.53%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.45%EV -12.18%E -2.56%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.48%EV -8.80%E -5.06%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.43%EV -13.10%E -2.79%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -5.43%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-18 15:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 52.64%EV -13.52%E -8.19%K -20.80%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.88%EV -14.95%E -3.25%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.48%EV -11.25%E -3.69%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -5.66%E -3.14%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -16.80%E -3.73%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -5.43%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.46%EV -6.70%E -3.77%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -16.80%E -3.73%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -5.43%E -1.67%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.21%EV -11.95%E -7.11%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.49%EV -16.80%E -3.73%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -9.79%E -3.16%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-18 15:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 51.26%EV -12.47%E -7.47%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.02%EV -16.80%E -3.73%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.72%EV -16.20%E -5.62%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-04-18 22:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.77%EV -6.70%E -3.77%K -8.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.54%EV -18.65%E -4.24%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -8.34%E -2.65%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.94% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.02% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03% | 1.3% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.94% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.02% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03% | 1.3% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.94% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.02% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03% | 1.3% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.94% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.02% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03% | 1.3% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.14% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.17% | 2.3% | 2026-04-18 22:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.37% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.47% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.17% | 3.0% | 2026-04-18 22:15 |