Language:English
Estudiantes v Independiente
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Estudiantes (Local)
Prediction 43.96%2.27fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.22%44.07%43.85%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.102.122.2050.76%47.65%47.17%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente (Visit)
Prediction 24.27%4.12fair odd
EV +0.960%
Edge +0.231%
Kelly +0.304%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 4.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.21%24.22%24.39%25.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.813.804.1628.57%26.22%26.32%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.77%3.15fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.489%
Kelly -0.722%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.30%31.70%31.76%32.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.953.1036.36%34.12%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estudiantes (Local): 43.96%; Independiente (Visit): 24.27%; Draw: 31.77%. For Independiente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.12. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.16, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.960%.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.92%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.21%EV +0.960%E +0.231%K +0.304%G +0.003% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.87%EV -3.74%E -1.23%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-26 20:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.92%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 23.21%EV +0.960%E +0.231%K +0.304%G +0.003% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.87%EV -3.74%E -1.23%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-26 20:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.78%EV -5.04%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.30%EV +0.718%E +0.173%K +0.228%G +0.002% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.92%EV -3.74%E -1.23%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-26 20:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -2.92%E -0.731%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -4.69%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-26 19:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.23%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -2.92%E -0.731%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.33%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-26 20:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -2.92%E -0.731%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-26 20:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -2.92%E -0.731%K -0.974%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-26 19:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.36%EV -5.92%E -2.77%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 23.79%EV -3.17%E -0.793%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.85%EV -5.33%E -1.79%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-26 20:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.40%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 23.78%EV -4.86%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.82%EV -6.92%E -2.36%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 20:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.37%EV -8.56%E -4.12%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -1.52%E -0.489%K -0.722%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-26 19:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.37%EV -8.56%E -4.12%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -1.52%E -0.489%K -0.722%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-26 20:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.37%EV -8.56%E -4.12%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -1.52%E -0.489%K -0.722%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-26 19:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.43%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-26 20:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.95%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.55%EV -6.56%E -1.70%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.69%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-26 11:05 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.61%EV -5.04%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -6.56%E -1.70%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-26 11:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -6.56%E -1.70%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-26 20:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -6.56%E -1.70%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-26 20:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 11:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 11:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-26 16:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-26 14:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-26 20:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.55%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-26 19:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -4.69%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-26 19:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -4.69%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-26 19:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -12.64%E -4.59%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-26 20:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.69%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-26 11:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-26 11:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.14%EV -5.33%E -1.79%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-26 10:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.14%EV -5.33%E -1.79%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-26 11:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.45%EV -13.40%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-26 19:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.10%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.84%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -12.64%E -4.59%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-07-26 16:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.32%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -11.42%E -3.13%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-26 11:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 43.94%EV -10.76%E -5.30%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.44%EV -11.42%E -3.13%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 31.63%EV -10.41%E -3.69%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-07-26 19:48 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.58%EV -13.40%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.06%EV -11.42%E -3.13%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.36%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-26 19:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-26 20:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -8.51%E -2.95%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-26 20:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.22%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -15.06%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -9.46%E -3.32%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-26 20:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.75%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -15.06%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-26 11:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.56% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.01% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43% | 1.1% | 2026-07-26 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.56% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.01% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43% | 1.1% | 2026-07-26 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.56% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.01% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43% | 1.1% | 2026-07-26 19:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.32% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.43% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.26% | 1.6% | 2026-07-26 20:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.13% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.39% | 2.1% | 2026-07-26 19:40 |
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