The School of Odds

Estudiantes v Independiente

2026-07-26 20:15 — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis)

Option 1: Estudiantes (Local)

Odds
1.9950.25%Min
2.1247.13%Mean
2.1546.51%Median
2.2843.86%Max
Consensus probabilities
41.61%2.403Min
43.34%2.307Max
42.49%2.354Mean
42.49%2.353Median
42.49%2.353IQM
42.48%2.354Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.28 under the IQM model: 42.49%

EV -3.12%Edge -1.37%Kelly -2.44%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Independiente (Visit)

Odds
3.2031.25%Min
3.5428.26%Mean
3.6027.78%Median
3.8026.32%Max
Consensus probabilities
24.52%4.078Min
26.26%3.808Max
25.39%3.939Mean
25.38%3.940Median
25.38%3.940IQM
25.38%3.939Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.80 under the IQM model: 25.38%

EV -3.56%Edge -0.938%Kelly -1.27%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
2.6537.74%Min
2.8135.55%Mean
2.8535.09%Median
2.9633.78%Max
Consensus probabilities
31.62%3.162Min
32.38%3.088Max
32.13%3.113Mean
32.13%3.112Median
32.13%3.112IQM
32.13%3.112Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.96 under the IQM model: 32.13%

EV -4.90%Edge -1.65%Kelly -2.50%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

BookmakerEstudiantes (Local) ▼Independiente (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.28I 43.86% NM 41.66%EV -3.12% E -1.37% K -2.44% G +0.000%3.62I 27.62% NM 26.24%EV -8.13% E -2.25% K -3.10% G +0.000%2.96I 33.78% NM 32.09%EV -4.90% E -1.65% K -2.50% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-03 19:55
Marathon Bet2.24I 44.64% NM 41.61%EV -4.82% E -2.15% K -3.89% G +0.000%3.55I 28.17% NM 26.25%EV -9.91% E -2.79% K -3.89% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.14%EV -6.82% E -2.35% K -3.59% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-03 19:45
Codere (IT)2.18I 45.87% NM 42.33%EV -7.37% E -3.38% K -6.24% G +0.000%3.65I 27.40% NM 25.28%EV -7.37% E -2.02% K -2.78% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 32.38%EV -8.43% E -2.96% K -4.56% G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-03 07:54
SportsBet2.15I 46.51% NM 43.34%EV -8.64% E -4.02% K -7.51% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 24.52%EV -3.56% E -0.938% K -1.27% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.13%EV -6.82% E -2.35% K -3.59% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-03 07:54
FanDuel2.15I 46.51% NM 43.34%EV -8.64% E -4.02% K -7.51% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 24.52%EV -3.56% E -0.938% K -1.27% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.13%EV -6.82% E -2.35% K -3.59% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-03 07:54
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51% NM 42.67%EV -8.64% E -4.02% K -7.51% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.48%EV -8.64% E -2.40% K -3.32% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.85%EV -7.47% E -2.59% K -3.97% G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-03 11:45
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62% NM 42.86%EV -10.77% E -5.13% K -9.79% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.00%EV -8.64% E -2.40% K -3.32% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.14%EV -10.04% E -3.58% K -5.58% G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-03 07:54
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78% NM 42.42%EV -12.89% E -6.29% K -12.28% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 25.96%EV -14.98% E -4.47% K -6.38% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 31.62%EV -11.64% E -4.23% K -6.65% G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-03 07:54
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78% NM 42.33%EV -12.89% E -6.29% K -12.28% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 25.52%EV -13.71% E -4.03% K -5.71% G +0.000%2.70I 37.04% NM 32.14%EV -13.25% E -4.91% K -7.79% G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-03 07:54
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00% NM 42.02%EV -15.02% E -7.51% K -15.02% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 26.26%EV -18.79% E -5.87% K -8.54% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 31.71%EV -14.86% E -5.61% K -9.00% G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-03 07:54
Unibet (FR)1.99I 50.25% NM 42.64%EV -15.44% E -7.76% K -15.60% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 25.33%EV -14.98% E -4.47% K -6.38% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 32.02%EV -14.86% E -5.61% K -9.00% G +0.000%17.8%2026-07-03 07:54
Betclic (FR)1.98I 50.51% NM 42.77%EV -15.87% E -8.01% K -16.19% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 25.28%EV -14.98% E -4.47% K -6.38% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 31.95%EV -14.86% E -5.61% K -9.00% G +0.000%18.1%2026-07-03 07:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth