Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Estudiantes v Independiente

Início: 2026-07-26 20:15 UTC

Final: Estudiantes 0–2 Independiente

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

39 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Estudiantes (Local)

Previsão 43.96%2.27odd justa
EV -3.28%
Vantagem -1.49%
Kelly -2.74%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.22%44.07%43.85%45.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.972.102.122.2050.76%47.65%47.17%45.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Independiente (Visitante)

Previsão 24.27%4.12odd justa
EV +0.960%
Vantagem +0.231%
Kelly +0.304%
Crescimento +0.003%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.16

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.21%24.22%24.39%25.93%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.503.813.804.1628.57%26.22%26.32%24.04%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 31.77%3.15odd justa
EV -1.52%
Vantagem -0.489%
Kelly -0.722%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.30%31.70%31.76%32.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.752.932.953.1036.36%34.12%33.90%32.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Estudiantes (Local): 43.96%; Independiente (Visitante): 24.27%; Empate: 31.77%. Para Independiente (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.12. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.16, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.960%.

Odds das casas de apostas (39 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
LowVig.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.92%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.21%EV +0.960%E +0.231%K +0.304%G +0.003%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.87%EV -3.74%E -1.23%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 20:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.92%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.21%EV +0.960%E +0.231%K +0.304%G +0.003%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.87%EV -3.74%E -1.23%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-26 20:10
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.78%EV -5.04%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.30%EV +0.718%E +0.173%K +0.228%G +0.002%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.92%EV -3.74%E -1.23%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-26 20:00
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -2.92%E -0.731%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -4.69%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 19:50
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.23%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -2.92%E -0.731%K -0.974%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.33%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 20:05
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -2.92%E -0.731%K -0.974%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 20:05
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -2.92%E -0.731%K -0.974%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 19:55
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.36%EV -5.92%E -2.77%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.79%EV -3.17%E -0.793%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.85%EV -5.33%E -1.79%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 20:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.40%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.78%EV -4.86%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.82%EV -6.92%E -2.36%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 20:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.37%EV -8.56%E -4.12%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -1.52%E -0.489%K -0.722%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 19:55
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.37%EV -8.56%E -4.12%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -1.52%E -0.489%K -0.722%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 20:00
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.37%EV -8.56%E -4.12%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -1.52%E -0.489%K -0.722%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-26 19:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -5.35%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.43%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 20:05
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.95%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.55%EV -6.56%E -1.70%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.69%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 11:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.61%EV -5.04%E -2.33%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -6.56%E -1.70%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 11:20
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -6.56%E -1.70%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 20:10
BetAnything🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -6.56%E -1.70%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 20:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 11:20
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 11:19
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.34%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.52%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 16:15
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 14:34
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 20:04
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.55%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-26 19:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -4.69%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-26 19:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -4.69%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-26 19:55
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -8.99%E -2.40%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -12.64%E -4.59%K -7.22%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-26 20:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.69%E -1.56%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 11:20
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 11:20
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.14%EV -5.33%E -1.79%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-26 10:55
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.14%EV -5.33%E -1.79%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-26 11:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.45%EV -13.40%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 19:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.10%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.84%EV -10.20%E -2.76%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -12.64%E -4.59%K -7.22%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-26 16:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.32%EV -9.88%E -4.82%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -11.42%E -3.13%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -6.28%E -2.13%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 11:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.94%EV -10.76%E -5.30%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.44%EV -11.42%E -3.13%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.63%EV -10.41%E -3.69%K -5.72%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-26 19:48
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.58%EV -13.40%E -6.80%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.06%EV -11.42%E -3.13%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.36%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-26 19:50
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.87%E -2.71%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-26 20:05
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -12.63%E -3.51%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -8.51%E -2.95%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-26 20:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.22%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -15.06%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -9.46%E -3.32%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 20:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.75%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -15.06%E -4.30%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -11.05%E -3.95%K -6.14%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-26 11:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 44.56%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.01%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43%1.1%2026-07-26 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.56%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.01%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43%1.1%2026-07-26 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.56%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.01%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43%1.1%2026-07-26 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.22I 45.05%NM 44.32%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.43%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.26%1.6%2026-07-26 20:10
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 45.13%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.48%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.39%2.1%2026-07-26 19:40