La escuela de los momios

Estudiantes v Independiente

2026-07-26 20:15 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Resultado del partido

39 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Estudiantes (Local)

Predicción 43.51%2.30momio equitativo
EV -4.27%
Ventaja -1.94%
Kelly -3.56%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.64%43.48%43.60%44.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.122.102.2050.00%47.25%47.62%45.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Independiente (Visitante)

Predicción 25.34%3.95momio equitativo
EV +1.35%
Ventaja +0.337%
Kelly +0.450%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.60%25.37%25.17%26.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.673.654.0029.41%27.24%27.40%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.15%3.21momio equitativo
EV -3.43%
Ventaja -1.11%
Kelly -1.63%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.28%31.15%31.24%32.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.802.983.003.1035.71%33.59%33.33%32.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (39 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV +1.35%E +0.337%K +0.450%G +0.006%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-23 17:59
Unibet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV +1.35%E +0.337%K +0.450%G +0.006%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-23 18:00
BetRivers2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV +0.082%E +0.021%K +0.028%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 18:00
LowVig.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.78%EV -1.18%E -0.304%K -0.409%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.28%EV -3.74%E -1.21%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-26 03:49
BetOnline.ag2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.78%EV -1.18%E -0.304%K -0.409%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.28%EV -3.74%E -1.21%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-26 03:50
Pinnacle2.20I 45.45%NM 43.75%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.00%EV -2.45%E -0.637%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.25%EV -4.06%E -1.32%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-25 20:35
Virgin Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 44.78%EV -11.24%E -5.51%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -2.45%E -0.637%K -0.860%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 18:00
LiveScore Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 44.78%EV -11.24%E -5.51%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -2.45%E -0.637%K -0.860%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.88%EV -12.98%E -6.49%K -12.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -3.72%E -0.979%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.50%EV -11.22%E -3.94%K -6.07%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-23 18:00
1xBet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -5.14%E -2.36%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.19%EV -4.48%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.24%EV -5.30%E -1.74%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 04:14
Codere (IT)2.19I 45.66%NM 42.99%EV -4.71%E -2.15%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.91%EV -8.11%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-24 08:20
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -4.99%E -1.33%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-23 20:50
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -6.25%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 20:15
SportsBet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -7.75%E -3.66%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -6.25%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-24 09:18
Marathon Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.59%EV -6.88%E -3.22%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -6.25%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.20%EV -6.86%E -2.29%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 04:09
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.25%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-24 09:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.25%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-25 20:15
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -6.25%E -1.69%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-23 20:50
Bovada2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -7.52%E -2.06%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-25 11:40
BetAnything2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -7.52%E -2.06%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 04:09
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.79%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.43%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-25 04:20
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.79%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.43%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-26 04:04
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.79%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -3.43%E -1.11%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-26 04:10
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -8.79%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -8.11%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-24 05:48
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -10.80%E -5.27%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -8.79%E -2.44%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-24 09:18
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -10.80%E -5.27%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.93%EV -9.29%E -2.60%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 31.54%EV -11.84%E -4.19%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-24 20:17
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.94%EV -5.14%E -2.36%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -10.05%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 04:04
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.94%EV -5.14%E -2.36%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.37%EV -10.05%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.69%EV -4.99%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 04:04
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -10.05%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-26 04:04
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -10.05%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-23 23:15
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.41%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -10.05%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -8.11%E -2.75%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-26 03:19
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.90%EV -12.98%E -6.49%K -12.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.73%EV -10.05%E -2.83%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.36%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-25 20:15
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 04:05
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-24 08:19
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -6.55%E -2.18%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 23:15
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -9.66%E -3.33%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-25 20:25
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -10.80%E -5.27%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -10.29%E -3.57%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-24 09:20
NetBet (FR)2.02I 49.50%NM 43.60%EV -12.11%E -5.99%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -11.32%E -3.23%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.23%EV -12.16%E -4.31%K -6.68%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-26 04:09
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.83%EV -10.80%E -5.27%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -13.85%E -4.07%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -12.78%E -4.56%K -7.10%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-26 03:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.73%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.71%1.1%2026-07-26 03:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 43.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.66%1.9%2026-07-26 04:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 43.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.66%1.9%2026-07-26 04:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 43.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.66%1.9%2026-07-26 04:15
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 43.22%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.51%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.27%3.3%2026-07-26 04:15