The School of Odds

Estudiantes v Defensa y Justicia

2026-08-01 21:00 UTC — Primera División - Argentina

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Estudiantes (Local)

Prediction 55.74%1.79fair odd
EV -5.24%
Edge -3.08%
Kelly -7.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.34%55.88%55.70%56.79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.541.651.671.7064.94%60.59%59.88%58.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Defensa y Justicia (Visit)

Prediction 16.81%5.95fair odd
EV +0.880%
Edge +0.147%
Kelly +0.176%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.33%16.73%16.83%18.79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.605.335.406.0021.74%18.75%18.52%16.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 27.44%3.64fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -0.726%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.70%27.38%27.47%28.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.333.353.5532.79%30.01%29.85%28.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 56.79%EV -9.70%E -5.98%K -15.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV +0.880%E +0.147%K +0.176%G +0.002%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 11:00
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 56.57%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -3.32%E -0.578%K -0.700%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 11:35
1xBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.89%EV -5.24%E -3.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.97%EV -5.85%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 13:00
Codere (IT)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.81%EV -7.47%E -4.50%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -5.85%E -1.04%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-26 12:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.28%EV -5.24%E -3.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.09%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-26 11:05
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 55.42%EV -5.79%E -3.43%K -8.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.03%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-26 11:05
Marathon Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.89%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.13%EV -5.60%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 12:50
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 55.26%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -7.53%E -1.37%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 11:00
Betsson1.70I 58.82%NM 55.75%EV -5.24%E -3.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.55%EV -9.21%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -2.58%E -0.726%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-26 12:24
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.75%EV -5.24%E -3.08%K -7.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.55%EV -9.21%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -2.58%E -0.726%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-26 12:25
SportsBet1.69I 59.17%NM 55.47%EV -5.79%E -3.43%K -8.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.36%EV -9.21%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 11:05
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 55.25%EV -5.79%E -3.43%K -8.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -9.21%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 11:10
Bet Right1.68I 59.52%NM 54.67%EV -6.35%E -3.78%K -9.34%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.50%EV -11.73%E -2.23%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-26 11:05
Betclic (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 55.57%EV -11.93%E -7.55%K -20.56%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.73%EV -11.73%E -2.23%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 27.70%EV -13.01%E -4.10%K -5.99%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-26 12:49
Unibet (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 55.18%EV -13.60%E -8.77%K -24.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.77%EV -14.25%E -2.79%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.04%EV -16.30%E -5.34%K -7.95%G +0.000%16.9%2026-07-26 12:50
Paddy Power1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -8.02%E -4.86%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -15.93%E -3.19%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 11:06
Winamax (DE)1.58I 63.29%NM 55.06%EV -11.93%E -7.55%K -20.56%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.75%EV -17.61%E -3.59%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.19%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-26 12:50
Winamax (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 54.57%EV -14.15%E -9.19%K -26.21%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 17.88%EV -20.98%E -4.46%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.55%EV -16.30%E -5.34%K -7.95%G +0.000%19.0%2026-07-26 12:50
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 53.34%EV -9.70%E -5.98%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.79%EV -22.66%E -4.93%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -14.93%E -4.82%K -7.11%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-26 11:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.57I 63.69%NM 54.43%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.09%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.48%17.0%2026-07-26 12:50