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Estudiantes v Defensa y Justicia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Estudiantes (Local)
Prediction 58.95%1.70fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -4.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.49%58.84%58.93%60.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.581.591.6567.57%63.20%62.89%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Defensa y Justicia (Visit)
Prediction 15.13%6.61fair odd
EV +1.99%
Edge +0.295%
Kelly +0.346%
Growth +0.007%
assuming max odds 6.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.26%15.17%15.13%16.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.606.156.006.7417.86%16.26%16.67%14.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.92%3.86fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.399%
Kelly -0.542%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.03%26.00%25.94%27.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.543.553.8029.85%28.23%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Estudiantes (Local): 58.95%; Defensa y Justicia (Visit): 15.13%; Draw: 25.92%. For Defensa y Justicia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.61. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.74, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.99%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.60%EV -3.32%E -2.02%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 6.74I 14.84%NM 14.26%EV +1.99%E +0.295%K +0.346%G +0.007% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.15%EV -8.25%E -2.33%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-01 20:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.03%EV -5.09%E -3.16%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.53%EV +0.623%E +0.094%K +0.110%G +0.001% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.43%EV -1.52%E -0.399%K -0.542%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-01 20:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.03%EV -5.09%E -3.16%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.53%EV +0.623%E +0.094%K +0.110%G +0.001% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.43%EV -1.52%E -0.399%K -0.542%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-01 20:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.86%EV -5.09%E -3.16%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 6.61I 15.13%NM 14.58%EV +0.018%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.56%EV -2.29%E -0.609%K -0.828%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-01 20:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -4.50%E -2.78%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -1.65%E -0.253%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 20:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.61%EV -7.45%E -4.74%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -1.65%E -0.253%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-01 20:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.61%EV -7.45%E -4.74%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -1.65%E -0.253%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-01 20:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.61%EV -7.45%E -4.74%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -1.65%E -0.253%K -0.299%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-01 20:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.24%EV -6.27%E -3.94%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.60%EV -2.40%E -0.373%K -0.441%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-01 20:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.05%EV -2.73%E -1.65%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.97%EV -3.16%E -0.494%K -0.585%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -8.00%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-01 20:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.05%EV -2.73%E -1.65%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.97%EV -3.16%E -0.494%K -0.585%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -8.00%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-01 20:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.38%EV -6.27%E -3.94%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.75%EV -3.16%E -0.494%K -0.585%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.87%EV -5.40%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-01 20:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.14%EV -3.91%E -2.40%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.16%EV -5.43%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -8.00%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 20:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.14%EV -3.91%E -2.40%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.16%EV -5.43%E -0.869%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -8.00%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-01 20:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.86%EV -4.50%E -2.78%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.37%EV -7.70%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-01 20:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.38%EV -7.45%E -4.74%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.28%EV -7.70%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.33%EV -4.63%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-01 20:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.88%EV -12.16%E -8.16%K -24.82%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.63%EV -7.70%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-01 20:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.70%EV -5.09%E -3.16%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 20:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.09%E -3.16%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-01 20:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.01%EV -6.27%E -3.94%K -10.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-01 20:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.23%EV -5.68%E -3.55%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -8.00%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-01 20:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.86%EV -5.09%E -3.16%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-01 20:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -5.68%E -3.55%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -11.88%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-01 20:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -5.68%E -3.55%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -11.88%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-01 20:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -5.68%E -3.55%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -11.88%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-01 20:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.87%EV -6.86%E -4.34%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.89%EV -11.88%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-01 20:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.02%EV -7.45%E -4.74%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -11.88%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-01 20:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.02%EV -7.45%E -4.74%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -11.88%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-01 20:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -9.80%E -6.41%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-01 20:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -9.80%E -6.41%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-01 20:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.11%EV -8.62%E -5.56%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.01%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.88%EV -13.18%E -3.93%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-01 20:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.11%EV -10.98%E -7.27%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.87%EV -9.21%E -1.54%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 26.02%EV -11.11%E -3.24%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-01 20:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 59.08%EV -12.75%E -8.62%K -26.56%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 14.82%EV -10.73%E -1.82%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.10%EV -13.18%E -3.93%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-08-01 20:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.06%EV -9.21%E -5.98%K -17.06%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.68%EV -12.24%E -2.11%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-01 20:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.65%EV -5.68%E -3.55%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -12.99%E -2.26%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -2.81%E -0.750%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-01 20:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.49%EV -6.86%E -4.34%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -12.99%E -2.26%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -11.88%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-01 20:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.27%EV -9.80%E -6.41%K -18.50%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.51%EV -12.99%E -2.26%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.88%E -3.50%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-01 20:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.84%EV -10.39%E -6.84%K -19.99%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.97%EV -15.26%E -2.73%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.19%EV -8.00%E -2.25%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-01 20:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.80% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.27% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.94% | 0.1% | 2026-08-01 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.09% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75% | 0.9% | 2026-08-01 20:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.09% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75% | 0.9% | 2026-08-01 20:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.09% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75% | 0.9% | 2026-08-01 20:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.81% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.71% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48% | 1.9% | 2026-08-01 20:35 |
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