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Defensa y Justicia v Union Santa Fe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Defensa y Justicia (Local)
Prediction 31.89%3.14fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.576%
Kelly -0.853%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.13%31.97%31.83%34.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.872.903.0838.02%34.82%34.48%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Union Santa Fe (Visit)
Prediction 36.08%2.77fair odd
EV -0.786%
Edge -0.286%
Kelly -0.449%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.21%36.01%36.11%37.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.562.602.7543.48%39.04%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.03%3.12fair odd
EV -2.31%
Edge -0.756%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.70%32.02%32.05%33.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.882.903.0540.00%34.71%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 31.89%; Union Santa Fe (Visit): 36.08%; Draw: 32.03%. For Union Santa Fe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -0.786%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.46%EV -1.77%E -0.576%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 36.02%EV -2.95%E -1.10%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.52%EV -4.55%E -1.53%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 20:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.21%EV -2.73%E -0.896%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.19%EV -5.11%E -1.94%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.60%EV -6.47%E -2.22%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.21%EV -2.73%E -0.896%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.19%EV -5.11%E -1.94%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.60%EV -6.47%E -2.22%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.33%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -6.20%E -2.38%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -8.71%E -3.06%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.33%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -6.20%E -2.38%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -8.71%E -3.06%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 20:33 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -4.33%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -8.00%E -3.14%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -10.31%E -3.68%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 20:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -4.33%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.81%E -3.92%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.31%E -3.68%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-21 13:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.40%EV -5.28%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -6.20%E -2.38%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.73%EV -8.71%E -3.06%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 20:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -5.92%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.76%EV -4.39%E -1.66%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 20:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.92%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.20%E -2.38%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 20:38 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.92%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.20%E -2.38%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 20:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.92%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.20%E -2.38%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 20:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.92%E -2.01%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.20%E -2.38%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.10%EV -7.52%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.42%EV -2.23%E -0.822%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.47%EV -2.31%E -0.756%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 20:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.52%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.20%E -2.38%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 08:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.52%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.20%E -2.38%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 08:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -7.52%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -8.00%E -3.14%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -7.11%E -2.45%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 20:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -7.52%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -8.00%E -3.14%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.88%EV -7.11%E -2.45%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 20:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -7.52%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -11.61%E -4.74%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -7.52%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -9.81%E -3.92%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -13.52%E -5.01%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -8.15%E -2.83%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -8.00%E -3.14%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.43%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 08:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -8.15%E -2.83%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.20%E -2.38%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.18%EV -7.75%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-21 20:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.84%EV -8.15%E -2.83%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.26%EV -11.61%E -4.74%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.90%EV -13.52%E -5.01%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.13%EV -8.15%E -2.83%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.73%EV -17.02%E -7.40%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.14%EV -13.52%E -5.01%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-03-21 20:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -9.11%E -3.20%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -11.61%E -4.74%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -7.11%E -2.45%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-21 20:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.83I 35.34%NM 31.55%EV -9.75%E -3.44%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 36.90%EV -12.69%E -5.24%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 31.55%EV -9.35%E -3.31%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-03-21 20:33 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -10.70%E -3.82%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.96%EV -11.61%E -4.74%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.70%EV -5.51%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-21 20:29 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.58%EV -10.70%E -3.82%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -13.41%E -5.59%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.58%EV -10.31%E -3.68%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-03-21 20:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -12.30%E -4.47%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -0.786%E -0.286%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 20:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -12.30%E -4.47%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -0.786%E -0.286%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 20:29 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -12.30%E -4.47%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -0.786%E -0.286%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -3.91%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 20:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.55%EV -13.89%E -5.15%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.62%EV -13.41%E -5.59%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.84%EV -8.71%E -3.06%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-21 20:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 30.73%EV -13.89%E -5.15%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 36.08%EV -17.02%E -7.40%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.19%EV -19.92%E -7.97%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 20.5% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 32.57%EV -14.85%E -5.56%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 35.21%EV -10.89%E -4.41%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.21%EV -13.52%E -5.01%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-03-21 20:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -15.49%E -5.84%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -4.39%E -1.66%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.51%EV -7.75%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-21 20:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -15.49%E -5.84%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.24%EV -4.39%E -1.66%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.51%EV -7.75%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-21 20:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.21%EV -16.13%E -6.13%K -9.89%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.21%EV -5.11%E -1.94%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.57%EV -8.71%E -3.06%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-21 20:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.50% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.05% | 0.9% | 2026-03-21 20:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.77% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.20% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.04% | 1.6% | 2026-03-21 20:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.77% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.20% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.04% | 1.6% | 2026-03-21 20:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.77% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.20% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.04% | 1.6% | 2026-03-21 20:34 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.75% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.45% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.80% | 1.6% | 2026-03-21 20:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.09% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.92% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.99% | 3.1% | 2026-03-21 20:29 |