The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Defensa y Justicia v Platense

Kickoff: 2026-08-31 22:00 UTC

Final: Defensa y Justicia 1–0 Platense

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Defensa y Justicia (Local)

Prediction 37.04%2.70fair odd
EV -2.60%
Edge -0.987%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.19%37.05%37.02%38.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.482.502.6343.48%40.31%40.00%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Platense (Visit)

Prediction 30.49%3.28fair odd
EV +3.07%
Edge +0.907%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 3.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.36%30.45%30.45%32.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.063.053.3835.09%32.67%32.79%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.47%3.08fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -0.862%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.36%32.50%32.54%33.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.842.853.0037.04%35.22%35.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 37.04%; Platense (Visit): 30.49%; Draw: 32.47%. For Platense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.35%EV -7.41%E -2.96%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.36%EV +3.07%E +0.907%K +1.29%G +0.040%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.29%EV -6.48%E -2.25%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-31 21:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.71%E -1.43%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV +2.15%E +0.642%K +0.916%G +0.020%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.93%EV -7.46%E -2.62%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-31 21:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.71%E -1.43%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV +2.15%E +0.642%K +0.916%G +0.020%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.93%EV -7.46%E -2.62%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-31 21:30
BetAnything🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.71%E -1.43%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV +2.15%E +0.642%K +0.916%G +0.020%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.93%EV -7.46%E -2.62%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-31 21:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -9.26%E -3.78%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -0.897%E -0.276%K -0.399%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.66%EV -6.48%E -2.25%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 21:40
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -9.26%E -3.78%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -0.897%E -0.276%K -0.399%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.66%EV -6.48%E -2.25%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 21:35
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -2.60%E -0.987%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.32%EV -2.73%E -0.855%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.90%EV -4.54%E -1.54%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-31 21:45
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -11.11%E -4.63%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -3.95%E -1.25%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -9.08%E -3.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-31 21:40
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -5.56%E -2.18%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -5.47%E -1.76%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 21:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -5.56%E -2.18%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -5.47%E -1.76%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 21:40
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -5.56%E -2.18%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -5.47%E -1.76%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 21:40
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -7.41%E -2.96%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.47%E -1.76%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 21:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.45%EV -5.19%E -2.03%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.10%EV -5.47%E -1.76%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.45%EV -9.41%E -3.37%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 21:54
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.56%E -2.18%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -7.00%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -5.18%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 21:45
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -5.56%E -2.18%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.86%EV -7.00%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.23%EV -5.18%E -1.78%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 21:45
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.83%EV -5.56%E -2.18%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -7.00%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.38%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-31 21:54
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.41%E -2.96%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -7.00%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.53%EV -7.46%E -2.62%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 21:40
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -7.41%E -2.96%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -7.00%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.92%EV -9.08%E -3.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.17%EV -14.08%E -6.07%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.03%EV -7.00%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -12.33%E -4.57%K -7.25%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-28 08:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.17%EV -14.08%E -6.07%K -10.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.03%EV -7.00%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.80%EV -12.33%E -4.57%K -7.25%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-31 21:40
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.41%E -2.96%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-31 21:45
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -7.41%E -2.96%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -6.48%E -2.25%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-31 21:55
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -7.41%E -2.96%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -7.46%E -2.62%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-31 21:55
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -9.26%E -3.78%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -7.46%E -2.62%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-31 21:55
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -11.11%E -4.63%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -6.48%E -2.25%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-31 21:40
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -9.26%E -3.78%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.70%E -3.89%K -6.12%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 21:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -9.26%E -3.78%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.70%E -3.89%K -6.12%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-31 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.19%EV -14.82%E -6.44%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -8.52%E -2.84%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -12.33%E -4.57%K -7.25%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-31 21:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.96%EV -9.26%E -3.78%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.70%EV -10.05%E -3.41%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -9.08%E -3.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-31 21:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -11.11%E -4.63%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 30.50%EV -10.66%E -3.64%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.26%EV -10.06%E -3.63%K -5.68%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-31 21:36
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -3.71%E -1.43%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -2.59%E -0.862%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-31 21:50
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.45%EV -5.56%E -2.18%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.05%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.50%EV -4.21%E -1.43%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-31 21:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -9.26%E -3.78%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -5.83%E -2.01%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-31 21:40
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -9.26%E -3.78%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -12.33%E -4.57%K -7.25%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-31 21:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.81%EV -11.11%E -4.63%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.47%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.72%EV -12.33%E -4.57%K -7.25%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-31 21:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.03%EV -14.82%E -6.44%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -11.57%E -3.99%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.81%EV -10.70%E -3.89%K -6.12%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-31 21:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.05%EV -11.11%E -4.63%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.20%EV -13.09%E -4.59%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.75%EV -9.08%E -3.24%K -5.05%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-31 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.96%1.1%2026-08-31 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.96%1.1%2026-08-31 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.96%1.1%2026-08-31 21:55
Smarkets◎2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.78%1.7%2026-08-31 21:55
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.28%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%2.0%2026-08-31 21:40