The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Defensa y Justicia v Deportivo Riestra

Kickoff: 2026-07-29 20:00 UTC

Final: Defensa y Justicia 2–1 Deportivo Riestra

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Defensa y Justicia (Local)

Prediction 36.36%2.75fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.404%
Kelly -0.638%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.28%36.58%36.35%44.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.502.502.7247.62%40.08%40.00%36.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportivo Riestra (Visit)

Prediction 29.19%3.43fair odd
EV +15.31%
Edge +3.88%
Kelly +5.19%
Growth +0.794%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.70%29.01%29.18%29.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.203.9533.33%30.84%31.25%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 34.45%2.90fair odd
EV +1.62%
Edge +0.549%
Kelly +0.830%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.73%34.41%34.47%35.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.722.702.9540.00%36.82%37.04%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Defensa y Justicia (Local): 36.36%; Deportivo Riestra (Visit): 29.19%; Draw: 34.45%. For Deportivo Riestra (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.43. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.57%EV -23.64%E -11.26%K -21.49%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.70%EV +15.31%E +3.88%K +5.19%G +0.794%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.73%EV +1.62%E +0.549%K +0.830%G +0.013%6.8%2026-07-27 03:15
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -16.37%E -7.12%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV +3.63%E +1.02%K +1.42%G +0.052%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.64%EV -0.793%E -0.275%K -0.422%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-29 19:40
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.40%EV -9.10%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.19%EV +3.05%E +0.863%K +1.20%G +0.037%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.41%EV -3.89%E -1.40%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-29 19:49
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.40%EV -12.73%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.41%EV +0.712%E +0.206%K +0.291%G +0.002%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -1.83%E -0.641%K -0.987%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 19:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.40%EV -12.73%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.41%EV +0.712%E +0.206%K +0.291%G +0.002%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -1.83%E -0.641%K -0.987%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 19:50
Pinnacle🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.59%EV -1.10%E -0.404%K -0.638%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.56%EV -1.04%E -0.307%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.85%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-29 19:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.54%EV -1.10%E -0.404%K -0.638%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.52%EV -1.04%E -0.307%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.94%EV -7.34%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-29 19:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.54%EV -1.10%E -0.404%K -0.638%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.52%EV -1.04%E -0.307%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.94%EV -7.34%E -2.73%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-29 19:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.19%EV -15.64%E -6.74%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -2.21%E -0.659%K -0.939%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.67%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-29 19:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.19%EV -15.64%E -6.74%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -2.21%E -0.659%K -0.939%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.67%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-29 19:55
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.46%E -2.10%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -3.67%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.59%EV -5.27%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.44%EV -17.10%E -7.50%K -13.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -3.67%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-29 19:50
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -5.46%E -2.10%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.13%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -8.72%E -3.29%K -5.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 19:50
Everygame🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -3.64%E -1.37%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.13%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -10.44%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 19:49
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -12.73%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -5.13%E -1.58%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -5.27%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-29 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.00%EV -5.83%E -2.25%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.95%EV -6.00%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.05%EV -8.37%E -3.15%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-29 19:54
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.39%EV -4.73%E -1.81%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.81%EV -2.86%E -1.01%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-29 19:50
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.39%EV -4.73%E -1.81%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.81%EV -2.86%E -1.01%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-29 19:50
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.59%EV -3.64%E -1.37%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-29 19:49
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -5.46%E -2.10%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -5.27%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-29 19:45
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -5.46%E -2.10%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-29 19:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -9.10%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -3.55%E -1.27%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 19:40
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -7.28%E -2.85%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-29 19:48
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -7.28%E -2.85%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-29 19:45
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -4.73%E -1.81%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -9.75%E -3.72%K -6.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-29 19:50
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -12.73%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.59%E -2.06%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -5.27%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-29 19:49
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.47%EV -10.92%E -4.46%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.05%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -5.27%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-29 19:50
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.28%E -2.85%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -9.50%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -5.27%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-29 19:40
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -7.28%E -2.85%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -9.50%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-29 19:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -12.73%E -5.31%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -9.50%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -5.27%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-29 19:45
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -9.10%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.50%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.44%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-29 19:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -9.10%E -3.64%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -9.50%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -10.44%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-29 19:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.81%EV -14.55%E -6.19%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.50%E -3.07%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.53%EV -8.72%E -3.29%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-29 19:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.12%EV -10.92%E -4.46%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.82%EV -10.96%E -3.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.07%EV -5.27%E -1.92%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-29 19:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 36.85%EV -12.01%E -4.96%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -10.96%E -3.59%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.91%EV -9.40%E -3.58%K -5.77%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-29 19:44
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -10.92%E -4.46%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -12.42%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -6.99%E -2.59%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-29 19:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 36.29%EV -12.01%E -4.96%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.27%EV -12.42%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.44%EV -12.16%E -4.77%K -7.85%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-29 19:50
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -10.92%E -4.46%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.20%EV -12.42%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.04%EV -13.88%E -5.55%K -9.25%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-29 19:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.25%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%0.7%2026-07-29 19:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.25%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%0.7%2026-07-29 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.16%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.71%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%0.9%2026-07-29 19:55
Smarkets◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.00%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.01%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.98%1.4%2026-07-29 19:55
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.31%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.27%2.0%2026-07-29 19:50