Language:English
Boca Juniors v Independiente
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Boca Juniors (Local)
Prediction 38.01%2.63fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.450%
Kelly -0.731%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.96%38.01%38.05%39.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.422.452.6043.48%41.27%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente (Visit)
Prediction 29.12%3.43fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.382%
Kelly -0.541%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.39
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.14%29.14%29.06%30.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.173.203.3933.90%31.52%31.25%29.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.87%3.04fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.462%
Kelly -0.693%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.52%32.85%32.89%33.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.832.853.0038.46%35.35%35.09%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boca Juniors (Local): 38.01%; Independiente (Visit): 29.12%; Draw: 32.87%. For Boca Juniors (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -1.17%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -1.17%E -0.450%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -11.19%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-11 22:03 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.59%EV -4.59%E -1.83%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.57%EV -1.29%E -0.382%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.84%EV -3.03%E -1.03%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-11 22:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.27%EV -4.59%E -1.83%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.84%EV -3.04%E -0.913%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.89%EV -4.01%E -1.37%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -6.83%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.67%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-11 22:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-11 22:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.70%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.83%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -5.66%E -1.97%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-11 22:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.83%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-11 22:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.83%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-11 22:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 22:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-11 22:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.69%EV -6.49%E -2.64%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.49%EV -2.75%E -0.823%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.82%EV -4.67%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.69%EV -6.49%E -2.64%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.49%EV -2.75%E -0.823%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.82%EV -4.67%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 22:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.87%E -2.80%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.91%E -1.19%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 22:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.87%E -2.80%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.66%EV -5.33%E -1.85%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-11 22:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.87%E -2.80%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.66%EV -5.33%E -1.85%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-11 22:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -6.87%E -2.80%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.87%E -2.80%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.81%EV -5.66%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.10%EV -7.30%E -2.59%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -6.87%E -2.80%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.65%E -4.22%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-11 22:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -1.39%E -0.462%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -1.39%E -0.462%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-11 22:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.18%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -3.03%E -1.03%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -3.91%E -1.19%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -6.83%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 22:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 22:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -12.65%E -4.22%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-11 22:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.33%EV -9.53%E -4.01%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -6.83%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -9.60%E -3.49%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.95%EV -10.67%E -4.54%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 33.28%EV -11.90%E -4.44%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-11 22:23 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.81%EV -10.67%E -4.54%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.53%EV -12.89%E -4.86%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-11 22:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -11.81%E -5.09%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.54%EV -5.33%E -1.85%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 22:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -11.81%E -5.09%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.54%EV -5.33%E -1.85%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 22:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -12.57%E -5.47%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -12.57%E -5.47%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.25%E -4.17%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.00%EV -12.57%E -5.47%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.63%EV -14.11%E -4.78%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.37%EV -11.25%E -4.17%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-04-11 22:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.86%EV -12.57%E -5.47%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52%EV -14.11%E -4.78%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 32.62%EV -12.23%E -4.58%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-11 22:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.72%EV -12.57%E -5.47%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.92%EV -12.65%E -4.22%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.37%EV -14.53%E -5.59%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.66% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.10% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.25% | 0.3% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.50% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11% | 0.7% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.50% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11% | 0.7% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.22% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.84% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.94% | 1.2% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.45% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.03% | 1.6% | 2026-04-11 22:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.80% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.15% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.05% | 3.0% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |