L’École des cotes

Boca Juniors v Independiente

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-11 22:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

37 opérateurs (16 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Boca Juniors (Local)

Prévision 38.01%2.63cote équitable
EV -1.17%
Avantage -0.450%
Kelly -0.731%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.96%38.01%38.05%39.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.422.452.6043.48%41.27%40.82%38.46%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Independiente (Visiteur)

Prévision 29.12%3.43cote équitable
EV -1.29%
Avantage -0.382%
Kelly -0.541%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.39

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.14%29.14%29.06%30.65%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.953.173.203.3933.90%31.52%31.25%29.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 32.87%3.04cote équitable
EV -1.39%
Avantage -0.462%
Kelly -0.693%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.52%32.85%32.89%33.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.602.832.853.0038.46%35.35%35.09%33.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (37 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Bovada2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -1.17%E -0.450%K -0.731%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.65%EV -11.19%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 22:03
Pinnacle2.51I 39.84%NM 38.59%EV -4.59%E -1.83%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.57%EV -1.29%E -0.382%K -0.541%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.84%EV -3.03%E -1.03%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 22:20
1xBet2.51I 39.84%NM 38.27%EV -4.59%E -1.83%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.84%EV -3.04%E -0.913%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.89%EV -4.01%E -1.37%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-11 22:25
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -6.83%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -4.67%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-11 22:00
DraftKings2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 22:20
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.70%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.83%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -5.66%E -1.97%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 22:05
BetAnything2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.83%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 22:20
Unibet (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 22:25
theScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.83%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 22:20
BetMGM2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 22:10
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 22:05
LowVig.ag2.46I 40.65%NM 38.69%EV -6.49%E -2.64%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.49%EV -2.75%E -0.823%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.82%EV -4.67%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 22:15
BetOnline.ag2.46I 40.65%NM 38.69%EV -6.49%E -2.64%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.49%EV -2.75%E -0.823%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.82%EV -4.67%E -1.61%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 22:20
FanDuel2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.87%E -2.80%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.91%E -1.19%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 22:24
Betsson2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.87%E -2.80%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.66%EV -5.33%E -1.85%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 22:04
NordicBet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.87%E -2.80%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.66%EV -5.33%E -1.85%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 22:05
Everygame2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -6.87%E -2.80%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 22:15
Marathon Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.87%E -2.80%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.81%EV -5.66%E -1.75%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.10%EV -7.30%E -2.59%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 22:25
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.36%EV -6.87%E -2.80%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -12.65%E -4.22%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.12%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-11 22:04
Unibet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -1.39%E -0.462%K -0.693%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 22:15
Unibet (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -1.39%E -0.462%K -0.693%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 22:14
BetRivers2.40I 41.67%NM 39.18%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -5.37%E -1.65%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.88%EV -3.03%E -1.03%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 22:15
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -3.91%E -1.19%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 22:25
PlayUp2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -6.83%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 22:15
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 22:20
BoyleSports2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 22:05
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -8.77%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -12.65%E -4.22%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -7.96%E -2.84%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-11 22:20
Paddy Power2.38I 42.02%NM 38.33%EV -9.53%E -4.01%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -6.83%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -9.60%E -3.49%K -5.49%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 22:25
Betclic (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.95%EV -10.67%E -4.54%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.28%EV -11.90%E -4.44%K -7.09%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 22:23
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.81%EV -10.67%E -4.54%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.53%EV -12.89%E -4.86%K -7.81%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-11 22:19
LiveScore Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -11.81%E -5.09%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.54%EV -5.33%E -1.85%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 22:20
Virgin Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -11.81%E -5.09%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.54%EV -5.33%E -1.85%K -2.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 22:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -12.57%E -5.47%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -6.32%E -2.22%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-11 22:15
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -12.57%E -5.47%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -9.74%E -3.14%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.25%E -4.17%K -6.62%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-11 22:25
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.00%EV -12.57%E -5.47%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.63%EV -14.11%E -4.78%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.37%EV -11.25%E -4.17%K -6.62%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-11 22:20
NetBet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.86%EV -12.57%E -5.47%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52%EV -14.11%E -4.78%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.62%EV -12.23%E -4.58%K -7.33%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-11 22:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.72%EV -12.57%E -5.47%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.92%EV -12.65%E -4.22%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.37%EV -14.53%E -5.59%K -9.08%G +0.000%15.3%2026-04-11 22:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.66%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.10%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.25%0.3%2026-04-11 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.50%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%0.7%2026-04-11 22:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.50%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.11%0.7%2026-04-11 22:15
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 39.22%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.84%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.94%1.2%2026-04-11 22:25
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 38.45%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.03%1.6%2026-04-11 22:15
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 39.80%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.15%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.05%3.0%2026-04-11 22:25