Language:English
Atlético Tucuman v River Plate
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atlético Tucuman (Local)
Prediction 23.67%4.23fair odd
EV +6.50%
Edge +1.44%
Kelly +1.86%
Growth +0.121%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.36%23.59%23.64%24.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.923.904.5027.78%25.50%25.64%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
River Plate (Visit)
Prediction 45.71%2.19fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -3.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.49%45.75%45.71%47.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.022.032.1153.19%49.58%49.26%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.62%3.27fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -0.924%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.51%30.66%30.64%31.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.023.1735.71%33.05%33.11%31.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Tucuman (Local): 23.67%; River Plate (Visit): 45.71%; Draw: 30.62%. For Atlético Tucuman (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.23. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.50%.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.36%EV +6.50%E +1.44%K +1.86%G +0.121% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.12%EV -6.75%E -3.31%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.52%EV -6.60%E -2.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 20:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.57%EV +1.29%E +0.303%K +0.395%G +0.005% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.67%EV -5.38%E -2.60%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.76%EV -3.85%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.57%EV +1.29%E +0.303%K +0.395%G +0.005% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.67%EV -5.38%E -2.60%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.76%EV -3.85%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.57%EV +1.29%E +0.303%K +0.395%G +0.005% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.67%EV -5.38%E -2.60%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.76%EV -3.85%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV +0.585%E +0.138%K +0.180%G +0.001% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.54%EV -7.66%E -3.79%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV +0.585%E +0.138%K +0.180%G +0.001% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.54%EV -7.66%E -3.79%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -2.97%E -0.723%K -0.956%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.92%EV -5.84%E -2.83%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.01%EV -6.60%E -2.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 20:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.65%EV -3.20%E -0.783%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.84%EV -3.55%E -1.68%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.51%EV -2.93%E -0.924%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -4.01%E -1.91%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.18%EV -4.92%E -2.37%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.91%EV -7.66%E -3.79%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -6.52%E -1.65%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.64%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -6.60%E -2.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-12 20:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 23.80%EV -7.23%E -1.84%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.69%EV -6.91%E -2.27%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 20:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -7.70%E -1.97%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.07%EV -6.75%E -3.31%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -3.54%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -7.70%E -1.97%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.07%EV -6.75%E -3.31%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -3.54%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -7.70%E -1.97%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -7.70%E -1.97%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 20:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -7.70%E -1.97%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -8.58%E -4.29%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-12 20:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.85%EV -9.49%E -4.79%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.03%EV -8.58%E -4.29%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.27%EV -11.81%E -4.10%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.03%EV -8.58%E -4.29%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.27%EV -11.81%E -4.10%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.66%EV -14.06%E -7.48%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.25%EV -11.20%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.78I 26.46%NM 23.23%EV -10.54%E -2.79%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.97%EV -12.69%E -6.64%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.81%EV -12.73%E -4.47%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -11.25%E -3.00%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -8.58%E -4.29%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -11.25%E -3.00%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -8.58%E -4.29%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-12 20:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -11.25%E -3.00%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.43%EV -7.66%E -3.79%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -6.60%E -2.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-12 20:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -11.25%E -3.00%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.72%EV -10.41%E -5.31%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -9.67%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -11.25%E -3.00%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.49%EV -8.58%E -4.29%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -14.26%E -5.09%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -12.43%E -3.36%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -10.86%E -5.57%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.51%EV -6.60%E -2.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -12.43%E -3.36%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.58%EV -11.78%E -6.10%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.65%EV -12.12%E -4.22%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-12 20:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -13.62%E -3.73%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -10.41%E -5.31%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -13.62%E -3.73%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -10.41%E -5.31%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -14.80%E -4.11%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.91%EV -12.69%E -6.64%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.73%EV -9.67%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.69% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.22% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.09% | 0.5% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.45% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.96% | 0.9% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.45% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.96% | 0.9% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.45% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.96% | 0.9% | 2026-09-12 20:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.16% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34% | 2.0% | 2026-09-12 20:11 |