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Atlético Tucuman v River Plate
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Atlético Tucuman (Local)
Predicción 23.67%4.23momio equitativo
EV +6.50%
Ventaja +1.44%
Kelly +1.86%
Crecimiento +0.121%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.36%23.59%23.64%24.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.923.904.5027.78%25.50%25.64%22.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
River Plate (Visitante)
Predicción 45.71%2.19momio equitativo
EV -3.55%
Ventaja -1.68%
Kelly -3.20%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.11
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.49%45.75%45.71%47.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.882.022.032.1153.19%49.58%49.26%47.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 30.62%3.27momio equitativo
EV -2.93%
Ventaja -0.924%
Kelly -1.35%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.17
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.51%30.66%30.64%31.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.803.033.023.1735.71%33.05%33.11%31.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Atlético Tucuman (Local): 23.67%; River Plate (Visitante): 45.71%; Empate: 30.62%. Para Atlético Tucuman (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.23. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +6.50%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.36%EV +6.50%E +1.44%K +1.86%G +0.121% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.12%EV -6.75%E -3.31%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.52%EV -6.60%E -2.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 20:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.57%EV +1.29%E +0.303%K +0.395%G +0.005% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.67%EV -5.38%E -2.60%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.76%EV -3.85%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.57%EV +1.29%E +0.303%K +0.395%G +0.005% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.67%EV -5.38%E -2.60%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.76%EV -3.85%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 4.28I 23.36%NM 22.57%EV +1.29%E +0.303%K +0.395%G +0.005% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.67%EV -5.38%E -2.60%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.76%EV -3.85%E -1.23%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV +0.585%E +0.138%K +0.180%G +0.001% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.54%EV -7.66%E -3.79%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV +0.585%E +0.138%K +0.180%G +0.001% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.54%EV -7.66%E -3.79%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV -2.97%E -0.723%K -0.956%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.92%EV -5.84%E -2.83%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.01%EV -6.60%E -2.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-12 20:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.65%EV -3.20%E -0.783%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.84%EV -3.55%E -1.68%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.51%EV -2.93%E -0.924%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.94%EV -4.01%E -1.91%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.18%EV -4.92%E -2.37%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -5.33%E -1.33%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.91%EV -7.66%E -3.79%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.69%EV -6.52%E -1.65%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.64%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -6.60%E -2.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-12 20:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 23.80%EV -7.23%E -1.84%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.69%EV -6.91%E -2.27%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-12 20:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -7.70%E -1.97%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.07%EV -6.75%E -3.31%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -3.54%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -7.70%E -1.97%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.07%EV -6.75%E -3.31%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%EV -3.54%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -7.70%E -1.97%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -7.70%E -1.97%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-12 20:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -7.70%E -1.97%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -8.58%E -4.29%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-12 20:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.85%EV -9.49%E -4.79%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.03%EV -8.58%E -4.29%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.27%EV -11.81%E -4.10%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.03%EV -8.58%E -4.29%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.27%EV -11.81%E -4.10%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.66%EV -14.06%E -7.48%K -15.98%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.25%EV -11.20%E -3.86%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.78I 26.46%NM 23.23%EV -10.54%E -2.79%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.97%EV -12.69%E -6.64%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.81%EV -12.73%E -4.47%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -11.25%E -3.00%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -8.58%E -4.29%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -11.25%E -3.00%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -8.58%E -4.29%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -5.07%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-12 20:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -11.25%E -3.00%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.43%EV -7.66%E -3.79%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -6.60%E -2.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-12 20:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -11.25%E -3.00%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.72%EV -10.41%E -5.31%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -9.67%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -11.25%E -3.00%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.49%EV -8.58%E -4.29%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -14.26%E -5.09%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -12.43%E -3.36%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -10.86%E -5.57%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.51%EV -6.60%E -2.17%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -12.43%E -3.36%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.58%EV -11.78%E -6.10%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 30.65%EV -12.12%E -4.22%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-12 20:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -13.62%E -3.73%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -10.41%E -5.31%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -13.62%E -3.73%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.66%EV -10.41%E -5.31%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.83%EV -8.13%E -2.71%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -14.80%E -4.11%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.91%EV -12.69%E -6.64%K -13.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.73%EV -9.67%E -3.28%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.69% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.22% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.09% | 0.5% | 2026-09-12 20:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.45% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.96% | 0.9% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.45% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.96% | 0.9% | 2026-09-12 20:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.45% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.96% | 0.9% | 2026-09-12 20:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.16% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34% | 2.0% | 2026-09-12 20:11 |