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Tampa Bay Lightning v Pittsburgh Penguins
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)
Prediction 59.33%1.69fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -3.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.65%59.43%59.30%61.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.601.611.6568.03%62.32%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit)
Prediction 40.67%2.46fair odd
EV -0.359%
Edge -0.147%
Kelly -0.248%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.90%40.57%40.70%41.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.362.352.4545.45%42.40%42.55%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Lightning (Local): 59.33%; Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit): 40.67%. For Pittsburgh Penguins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -0.359%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.10%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-02 23:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.10%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.10%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-02 23:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.10%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -2.10%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -4.83%E -2.07%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.51%EV -2.70%E -1.65%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.49%EV -1.99%E -0.824%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.29%E -2.02%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -3.21%E -1.35%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.02%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-02 23:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-02 22:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -6.05%E -2.62%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-02 23:03 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.46%E -2.81%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-02 23:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -3.61%E -1.52%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-02 23:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -4.02%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.24%E -2.25%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-02 23:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-02 23:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -4.02%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.46%E -2.81%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-02 23:04 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.46%E -2.81%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.46%E -2.81%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-02 23:04 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -6.26%E -3.96%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -3.61%E -1.52%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.26%E -3.96%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.46%E -2.81%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.26%E -3.96%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.46%E -2.81%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -0.359%E -0.147%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -0.359%E -0.147%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.21%E -1.35%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-02 23:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -0.359%E -0.147%K -0.248%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-02 22:58 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 59.95%EV -12.78%E -8.70%K -27.20%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.05%EV -10.53%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-02 23:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.86% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 40.14% | 0.0% | 2026-04-02 22:59 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 0.5% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 0.9% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29% | 0.9% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34% | 1.6% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34% | 1.6% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54% | 1.9% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.41% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.59% | 2.6% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54% | 3.2% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54% | 3.2% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54% | 3.2% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54% | 3.2% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.25% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.60% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.16% | 3.8% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.63% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.59% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.77% | 4.4% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.55% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.71% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74% | 4.5% | 2026-04-02 23:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.48% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.59% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.94% | 4.8% | 2026-04-02 22:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.18% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.67% | 4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15% | 4.8% | 2026-04-02 22:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57% | 5.4% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57% | 5.4% | 2026-04-02 23:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57% | 5.4% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57% | 5.4% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78% | 6.8% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.74% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63% | 7.5% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.28% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.33% | 7.9% | 2026-04-02 22:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96% | 8.4% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.92% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.65% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43% | 8.7% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 47.18% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79% | 9.3% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.67% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.85% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.47% | 9.9% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 49.65% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68% | 12.5% | 2026-04-02 23:05 |