La escuela de los momios

Tampa Bay Lightning v Pittsburgh Penguins

Inicio: 2026-04-02 23:10 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (13 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Tampa Bay Lightning (Local)

Predicción 59.33%1.69momio equitativo
EV -2.10%
Ventaja -1.28%
Kelly -3.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.65%59.43%59.30%61.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.471.601.611.6568.03%62.32%62.11%60.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Pittsburgh Penguins (Visitante)

Predicción 40.67%2.46momio equitativo
EV -0.359%
Ventaja -0.147%
Kelly -0.248%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.90%40.57%40.70%41.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.362.352.4545.45%42.40%42.55%40.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

21 corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.10%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-02 23:04
BetOnline.ag1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.10%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-02 23:05
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.10%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-02 23:04
theScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.10%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-02 23:05
BetAnything1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -2.10%E -1.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -4.83%E -2.07%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-02 23:05
Pinnacle1.64I 60.98%NM 59.51%EV -2.70%E -1.65%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.49%EV -1.99%E -0.824%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-02 23:05
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.29%E -2.02%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-02 23:05
BetUS1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -3.21%E -1.35%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-02 23:05
DraftKings1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.02%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-02 23:05
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-02 23:04
GTbets1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-02 23:05
ReBet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-02 22:59
MyBookie.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -6.05%E -2.62%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-02 23:03
Fanatics1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.88%E -2.40%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.46%E -2.81%K -4.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-02 23:05
Paddy Power1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-02 23:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-02 23:05
BetMGM1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-02 23:04
Bovada1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -3.61%E -1.52%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-02 23:00
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 59.45%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.55%EV -4.02%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-02 23:05
NordicBet1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.48%E -2.78%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.24%E -2.25%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-02 23:05
Bet Right1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-02 23:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-02 23:04
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-02 23:04
SportsBet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -4.02%E -1.70%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-02 23:05
Betr (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-02 23:05
PlayUp1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.43%E -1.88%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-02 23:05
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.46%E -2.81%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 23:04
TAB1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.07%E -3.17%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.46%E -2.81%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-02 23:05
Fliff1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.39%E -0.997%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-02 23:05
Hard Rock Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.66%E -3.56%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.46%E -2.81%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 23:04
Betsson1.58I 63.29%NM 60.00%EV -6.26%E -3.96%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -3.61%E -1.52%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-02 23:05
Neds1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.26%E -3.96%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.46%E -2.81%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-02 23:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.26%E -3.96%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.46%E -2.81%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-02 23:05
betPARX1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -0.359%E -0.147%K -0.248%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-02 23:05
Bally Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -0.359%E -0.147%K -0.248%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-02 23:05
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.02%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.21%E -1.35%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-02 23:00
BetRivers1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -0.359%E -0.147%K -0.248%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-02 22:58
NetBet (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 59.95%EV -12.78%E -8.70%K -27.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.05%EV -10.53%E -4.78%K -8.77%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-02 23:01
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (9)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.67I 59.88%NM 59.86%2.49I 40.16%NM 40.14%0.0%2026-04-02 22:59
ProphetX1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%0.5%2026-04-02 23:05
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-04-02 23:05
Novig1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%0.9%2026-04-02 23:05
Polymarket1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-04-02 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%1.6%2026-04-02 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 59.66%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.34%1.6%2026-04-02 23:05
Matchbook1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%1.9%2026-04-02 23:05
Smarkets1.64I 60.98%NM 59.41%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.59%2.6%2026-04-02 23:05

Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (21)

Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.

CorredorOpción 1Opción 2Opción 3Margen ▲Actualizado
LeoVegas (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-04-02 23:05
Unibet (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-04-02 23:05
ATG (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-04-02 23:05
Svenska Spel1.94I 51.55%NM 49.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-04-02 23:05
Unibet (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.25%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.60%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.16%3.8%2026-04-02 23:05
TABtouch1.93I 51.81%NM 49.63%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.59%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.77%4.4%2026-04-02 23:05
Coolbet1.97I 50.76%NM 48.55%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.71%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74%4.5%2026-04-02 23:04
Marathon Bet2.01I 49.75%NM 47.48%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.59%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.94%4.8%2026-04-02 22:59
1xBet1.98I 50.51%NM 48.18%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.67%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%4.8%2026-04-02 22:59
Unibet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-04-02 23:05
Casumo1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-04-02 23:04
Unibet (NL)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-04-02 23:05
Grosvenor1.91I 52.36%NM 49.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%5.4%2026-04-02 23:05
Tipico (DE)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%6.8%2026-04-02 23:05
LeoVegas1.87I 53.48%NM 49.74%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.63%7.5%2026-04-02 23:05
Unibet (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 47.28%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.33%7.9%2026-04-02 22:59
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%8.4%2026-04-02 23:05
Winamax (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.92%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%8.7%2026-04-02 23:05
Winamax (DE)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.18%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.79%9.3%2026-04-02 23:05
Betclic (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.67%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.85%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.47%9.9%2026-04-02 23:05
PMU (FR)1.79I 55.87%NM 49.65%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68%12.5%2026-04-02 23:05