Language:English
Phoenix Mercury v Connecticut Sun
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Phoenix Mercury (Local)
Prediction 60.96%1.64fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.768%
Kelly -2.01%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.70%61.10%60.95%62.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.551.541.6268.97%64.47%64.94%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Connecticut Sun (Visit)
Prediction 39.04%2.56fair odd
EV +0.333%
Edge +0.130%
Kelly +0.212%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.19%38.90%39.05%40.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.472.472.5743.48%40.42%40.49%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Phoenix Mercury (Local): 60.96%; Connecticut Sun (Visit): 39.04%. For Connecticut Sun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.333%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.68%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.32%EV +0.333%E +0.130%K +0.212%G +0.001% | 4.3% | 2026-07-19 22:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.448%E -0.176%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-19 19:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.448%E -0.176%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-19 19:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.448%E -0.176%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-19 19:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.448%E -0.176%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-19 19:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.448%E -0.176%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-19 19:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.448%E -0.176%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-19 19:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.448%E -0.176%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-19 19:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -0.448%E -0.176%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-19 19:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.95%E -5.27%K -15.59%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -0.448%E -0.176%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-19 19:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.95%E -5.27%K -15.59%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -0.448%E -0.176%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-19 19:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%EV -2.01%E -0.801%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-19 22:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%EV -2.46%E -1.54%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%EV -2.40%E -0.960%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-07-19 22:49 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%EV -2.46%E -1.54%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%EV -2.40%E -0.960%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-07-19 22:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -2.40%E -0.960%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-07-19 22:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.40%E -0.960%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-19 22:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.40%E -0.960%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-19 20:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.40%E -0.960%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-19 20:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.40%E -0.960%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-19 20:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.34%E -4.83%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -2.40%E -0.960%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-19 22:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -6.12%E -3.98%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -2.79%E -1.12%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-19 22:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -7.34%E -4.83%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -3.18%E -1.28%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-19 22:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -7.34%E -4.83%K -14.12%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -3.18%E -1.28%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-19 22:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV -3.68%E -2.33%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 39.01%EV -3.57%E -1.45%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-19 23:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -4.90%E -3.14%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -3.96%E -1.61%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-19 23:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-19 22:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-19 23:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.68%E -2.33%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-19 23:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-19 22:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-19 22:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.29%E -2.73%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-19 22:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.51%E -3.56%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-19 22:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.51%E -3.56%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-19 22:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-19 23:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -7.95%E -5.27%K -15.59%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -4.35%E -1.78%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-19 22:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -3.07%E -1.93%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -5.13%E -2.11%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-19 22:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -6.12%E -3.98%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -5.13%E -2.11%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-19 22:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.63%EV -11.61%E -8.01%K -25.80%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.37%EV -5.13%E -2.11%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-19 19:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -1.24%E -0.768%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -5.52%E -2.28%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-19 22:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -1.24%E -0.768%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -5.52%E -2.28%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-19 22:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -1.24%E -0.768%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -6.30%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-19 22:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.68%E -2.33%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.30%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-19 22:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.68%E -2.33%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.30%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-19 22:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.90%E -3.14%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.30%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-19 23:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.90%E -3.14%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.30%E -2.63%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-19 23:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.08%E -2.98%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-19 22:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.73%E -4.40%K -12.70%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -10.21%E -4.44%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-19 22:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23% | 0.3% | 2026-07-19 23:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24% | 0.6% | 2026-07-19 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-07-19 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-07-19 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.58% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.42% | 0.7% | 2026-07-19 23:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 0.9% | 2026-07-19 23:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 0.9% | 2026-07-19 22:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28% | 1.0% | 2026-07-19 23:00 |