The School of Odds

Phoenix Mercury v Connecticut Sun

2026-07-19 23:00 UTC — WNBA

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Phoenix Mercury (Local)

Prediction 59.44%1.68fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -4.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.99%59.51%59.34%61.69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.481.591.591.6368%63%63%61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Connecticut Sun (Visit)

Prediction 40.56%2.47fair odd
EV +0.598%
Edge +0.241%
Kelly +0.404%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.31%40.49%40.66%42.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.182.362.352.4846%42%43%40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -7.87%E -5.08%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV +0.598%E +0.241%K +0.404%G +0.002%4.8%2026-07-18 20:45
Unibet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -7.87%E -5.08%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV +0.598%E +0.241%K +0.404%G +0.002%4.8%2026-07-18 20:45
Unibet (NL)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -7.87%E -5.08%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV +0.598%E +0.241%K +0.404%G +0.002%4.8%2026-07-18 20:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -7.87%E -5.08%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV +0.598%E +0.241%K +0.404%G +0.002%4.8%2026-07-18 20:45
Bally Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -7.87%E -5.08%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV +0.598%E +0.241%K +0.404%G +0.002%4.8%2026-07-18 20:45
betPARX1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -7.87%E -5.08%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV +0.598%E +0.241%K +0.404%G +0.002%4.8%2026-07-18 20:45
ATG (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -7.87%E -5.08%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV +0.598%E +0.241%K +0.404%G +0.002%4.8%2026-07-18 20:45
Svenska Spel1.55I 64.52%NM 61.54%EV -7.87%E -5.08%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.46%EV +0.598%E +0.241%K +0.404%G +0.002%4.8%2026-07-18 20:50
BetRivers1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -8.47%E -5.50%K -15.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV +0.598%E +0.241%K +0.404%G +0.002%5.3%2026-07-18 20:45
TABtouch1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -8.47%E -5.50%K -15.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV +0.598%E +0.241%K +0.404%G +0.002%5.3%2026-07-18 20:50
1xBet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -1.84%E -0.758%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-19 04:40
BetOnline.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-19 02:25
LowVig.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-19 02:25
BetAnything1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-19 02:25
Caesars1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-19 02:25
BetMGM1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.65%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-19 02:25
PMU (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 61.66%EV -12.03%E -8.13%K -25.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -3.46%E -1.45%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-18 20:50
DraftKings1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.27%E -1.81%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-19 02:25
Hard Rock Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-19 02:25
Bovada1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-19 02:23
GTbets1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.71%E -2.29%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-19 02:20
Fanatics1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-19 02:25
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-19 02:25
Unibet (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 02:25
Neds1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 02:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-19 02:20
Betr (AU)1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 02:30
TAB1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.09%E -3.85%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-19 02:35
Coolbet1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.09%E -3.85%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.67%E -1.99%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-19 03:20
MyBookie.ag1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -5.08%E -2.17%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-19 03:29
Pinnacle1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -5.08%E -2.17%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-19 02:40
Bet Right1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -4.90%E -3.06%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -5.08%E -2.17%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-19 02:30
ReBet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.23%EV -5.50%E -3.46%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.77%EV -6.30%E -2.73%K -4.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 03:25
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-19 03:45
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-19 03:45
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-19 03:45
NordicBet1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.09%E -3.85%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 03:40
Betsson1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.09%E -3.85%K -10.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 02:25
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.70%E -2.91%K -5.16%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 02:25
FanDuel1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.12%E -1.91%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.51%E -3.30%K -5.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-19 03:20
SportsBet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -3.12%E -1.91%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-19 04:25
Fliff1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.31%E -2.68%K -7.06%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-19 03:05
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-19 01:35
Bet Victor1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-19 04:24
betano_uk1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.73%E -3.88%K -6.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-19 04:24
LeoVegas1.57I 63.69%NM 58.13%EV -6.69%E -4.26%K -11.73%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.87%EV -11.57%E -5.31%K -9.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-19 05:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 59.95%2.50I 40.00%NM 40.05%-0.1%2026-07-19 05:00
Polymarket1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-07-19 02:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-07-19 05:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-07-19 05:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.0%2026-07-19 05:20
ProphetX1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13%1.4%2026-07-19 05:20
Novig1.61I 62.11%NM 60.54%2.47I 40.49%NM 39.46%2.6%2026-07-19 05:38