Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals

2026-08-03 22:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Predicción 57.61%1.74momio equitativo
EV -2.07%
Ventaja -1.22%
Kelly -2.96%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.70%57.70%57.59%58.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.571.651.651.7063.69%60.60%60.61%58.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Washington Nationals (Visitante)

Predicción 42.39%2.36momio equitativo
EV -0.372%
Ventaja -0.158%
Kelly -0.275%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.03%42.30%42.41%43.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.252.252.3546.51%44.40%44.44%42.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 57.61%; Washington Nationals (Visitante): 42.39%. Para Washington Nationals (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.36. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.35, con un valor esperado de -0.372%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
FanDuel1.70I 58.82%NM 57.71%EV -2.07%E -1.22%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.29%EV -1.64%E -0.708%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.9%2026-08-03 02:35
1xBet1.70I 58.82%NM 57.61%EV -2.07%E -1.22%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 42.39%EV -2.07%E -0.895%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-02 20:29
Hard Rock Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 58.17%EV -2.65%E -1.57%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.83%EV -0.372%E -0.158%K -0.275%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-02 21:45
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 58.17%EV -2.65%E -1.57%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.83%EV -0.372%E -0.158%K -0.275%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-03 02:33
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.65%E -1.57%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-02 20:40
TAB1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -3.22%E -1.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-03 02:45
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.22%E -1.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-03 01:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.22%E -1.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-03 02:40
Neds1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.22%E -1.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-03 02:40
PointsBet (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.80%E -2.28%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.49%E -1.08%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-02 19:25
Bovada1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -3.80%E -2.28%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -4.19%E -1.85%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-03 02:34
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.80%E -2.28%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-02 22:45
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.80%E -2.28%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-03 03:59
BetMGM1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.80%E -2.28%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-03 02:39
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.80%E -2.28%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-03 02:40
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.80%E -2.28%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-03 02:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.80%E -2.28%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-03 03:00
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.80%E -2.28%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 01:54
Bet Right1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%EV -4.38%E -2.64%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%EV -5.04%E -2.25%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-03 02:35
Coolbet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.38%E -2.64%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.46%E -2.45%K -4.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-03 01:55
Betsson1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -4.38%E -2.64%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -5.88%E -2.65%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 02:45
NordicBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -4.38%E -2.64%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -5.88%E -2.65%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-03 02:45
BetRivers1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.49%E -1.08%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-03 03:39
Unibet (NL)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.49%E -1.08%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-03 03:39
Unibet (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.49%E -1.08%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-03 03:39
Svenska Spel1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.49%E -1.08%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-03 03:39
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-03 01:50
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-03 03:39
888sport1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-03 02:34
888sport (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-03 02:34
Mr Green (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-03 02:34
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 23:54
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -5.04%E -2.25%K -4.06%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 20:25
SportsBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-03 02:34
ReBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.95%E -3.00%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-03 01:49
DraftKings1.64I 60.98%NM 58.27%EV -5.53%E -3.37%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.73%EV -2.92%E -1.27%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 23:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.53%E -3.37%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.34%E -1.46%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 03:39
Casumo1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.53%E -3.37%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.34%E -1.46%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 03:39
Unibet1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.53%E -3.37%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.34%E -1.46%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 03:39
Bally Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.53%E -3.37%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.34%E -1.46%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 03:45
ATG (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.53%E -3.37%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.34%E -1.46%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 03:39
betPARX1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.53%E -3.37%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.34%E -1.46%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 03:39
Betr (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.53%E -3.37%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-03 02:34
Betclic (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -5.53%E -3.37%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -5.88%E -2.65%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-03 01:54
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.53%E -3.37%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-03 01:50
Virgin Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.10%E -3.74%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -3.34%E -1.46%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-03 03:39
LiveScore Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.10%E -3.74%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -3.34%E -1.46%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-03 03:39
TABtouch1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -6.10%E -3.74%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -3.34%E -1.46%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-03 03:39
Dabble (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.68%E -4.12%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.49%E -1.08%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-03 03:39
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.68%E -4.12%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.61%E -2.05%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-03 02:30
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.68%E -4.12%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-03 02:49
betano_uk1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.26%E -4.51%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-03 01:49
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -7.26%E -4.51%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-03 01:48
Tipico (DE)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.83%E -4.89%K -13.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -2.49%E -1.08%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-02 20:25
Unibet (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -7.83%E -4.89%K -13.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-03 01:49
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -7.83%E -4.89%K -13.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.85%E -4.12%K -7.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 23:54
Grosvenor1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -9.56%E -6.09%K -16.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -6.73%E -3.06%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-03 03:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (9)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%0.5%2026-08-03 03:29
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%1.1%2026-08-03 04:35
Polymarket1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-08-02 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.86%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.14%2.3%2026-08-03 03:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.86%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.14%2.3%2026-08-03 03:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.69I 59.17%NM 57.86%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.14%2.3%2026-08-03 03:20
Smarkets1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%2.6%2026-08-03 04:10
ProphetX1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%2.6%2026-08-03 04:40
Matchbook1.60I 62.50%NM 57.45%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%8.8%2026-08-03 03:50