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Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Philadelphia Phillies (Local)
Prediction 73.27%1.36fair odd
EV -1.08%
Edge -0.800%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.40%73.34%73.32%75.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.301.301.3580.65%76.90%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Washington Nationals (Visit)
Prediction 26.73%3.74fair odd
EV +5.57%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.89%
Growth +0.105%
assuming max odds 3.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.62%26.66%26.68%28.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.583.593.9530.30%27.91%27.82%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 73.27%; Washington Nationals (Visit): 26.73%. For Washington Nationals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.57%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.38%EV -5.48%E -4.25%K -18.89%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62%EV +5.57%E +1.41%K +1.89%G +0.105% | 2.8% | 2026-08-04 22:35 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.38%EV -5.48%E -4.25%K -18.89%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62%EV +5.57%E +1.41%K +1.89%G +0.105% | 2.8% | 2026-08-04 22:34 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -6.21%E -4.85%K -22.18%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV +4.23%E +1.09%K +1.46%G +0.062% | 3.8% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| DraftKings | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.17%EV -2.55%E -1.91%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.83%EV +2.09%E +0.548%K +0.743%G +0.016% | 1.4% | 2026-08-04 22:10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -7.68%E -6.09%K -29.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV +1.56%E +0.411%K +0.557%G +0.009% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.82%EV -2.55%E -1.91%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.18%EV +0.224%E +0.060%K +0.081%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-08-04 20:45 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.48%E -4.25%K -18.89%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +0.224%E +0.060%K +0.081%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 22:34 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.48%E -4.25%K -18.89%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +0.224%E +0.060%K +0.081%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 22:35 |
| Unibet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -6.21%E -4.85%K -22.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV +0.224%E +0.060%K +0.081%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 22:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -6.21%E -4.85%K -22.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV +0.224%E +0.060%K +0.081%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 22:35 |
| Casumo | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -6.21%E -4.85%K -22.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV +0.224%E +0.060%K +0.081%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 22:34 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -6.21%E -4.85%K -22.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV +0.224%E +0.060%K +0.081%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 22:34 |
| Bally Bet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -6.21%E -4.85%K -22.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV +0.224%E +0.060%K +0.081%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 22:35 |
| betPARX | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -6.21%E -4.85%K -22.18%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV +0.224%E +0.060%K +0.081%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 22:35 |
| Betway | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.41%E -6.73%K -33.63%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +0.224%E +0.060%K +0.081%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.86%EV -3.28%E -2.48%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 26.14%EV -0.311%E -0.083%K -0.114%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.86%EV -3.28%E -2.48%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 26.14%EV -0.311%E -0.083%K -0.114%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| Caesars | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.85%EV -4.01%E -3.06%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15%EV -1.11%E -0.301%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 22:39 |
| TABtouch | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.21%E -4.85%K -22.18%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -1.11%E -0.301%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-04 22:39 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -7.68%E -6.09%K -29.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -1.11%E -0.301%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-04 22:39 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -7.68%E -6.09%K -29.52%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -2.45%E -0.671%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -7.68%E -6.09%K -29.52%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -2.45%E -0.671%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-04 22:39 |
| FanDuel | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -2.55%E -1.91%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -3.79%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 20:45 |
| GTbets | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.17%EV -3.28%E -2.48%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -3.79%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| BetMGM | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.01%E -3.06%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.79%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-04 20:42 |
| theScore Bet | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.01%E -3.06%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.79%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-04 20:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.74%E -3.65%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -3.79%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 20:44 |
| Coral | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.74%E -3.65%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -3.79%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-04 20:44 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -6.21%E -4.85%K -22.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -3.79%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| Bet Victor | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.41%E -6.73%K -33.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.79%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-04 22:33 |
| betano_uk | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.41%E -6.73%K -33.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.79%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-04 22:34 |
| Grosvenor | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -9.14%E -7.37%K -38.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -3.79%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-04 22:34 |
| Pinnacle | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.82%EV -1.81%E -1.35%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 27.18%EV -4.05%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| SportsBet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -4.74%E -3.65%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69%EV -4.59%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 20:44 |
| 1xBet | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.51%EV -1.08%E -0.800%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.49%EV -4.85%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-08-04 22:04 |
| ReBet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -3.28%E -2.48%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -5.12%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -3.28%E -2.48%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -5.12%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Bet Right | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -4.01%E -3.06%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -5.12%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-04 21:00 |
| Fliff | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -4.01%E -3.06%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -5.12%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| BetUS | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.69%EV -2.55%E -1.91%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.31%EV -5.39%E -1.52%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-04 22:14 |
| Bovada | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -3.28%E -2.48%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 22:29 |
| BetAnything | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -3.28%E -2.48%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| TAB | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -3.28%E -2.48%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-04 21:09 |
| Fanatics | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.01%E -3.06%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.01%E -3.06%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 22:25 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.01%E -3.06%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 20:45 |
| William Hill | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.74%E -3.65%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-04 22:24 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.21%E -4.85%K -22.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.46%E -1.85%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-04 21:54 |
| Coolbet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -3.28%E -2.48%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -8.60%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 22:24 |
| PlayUp | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -2.55%E -1.91%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -9.13%E -2.69%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 22:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -2.55%E -1.91%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -9.13%E -2.69%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 20:45 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.01%E -3.06%K -12.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -9.13%E -2.69%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-04 22:25 |
| 888sport | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.74%E -3.65%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.13%E -2.69%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 22:24 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.74%E -3.65%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.13%E -2.69%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 22:25 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.74%E -3.65%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.13%E -2.69%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 22:25 |
| BoyleSports | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.74%E -3.65%K -15.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.13%E -2.69%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-04 21:59 |
| Paddy Power | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.48%E -4.25%K -18.89%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -9.13%E -2.69%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-04 20:43 |
| LeoVegas | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -6.21%E -4.85%K -22.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -9.13%E -2.69%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.91%EV -3.28%E -2.48%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.09%EV -9.67%E -2.86%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 22:05 |
| Neds | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.55%E -1.91%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -10.47%E -3.12%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 20:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -2.55%E -1.91%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -10.47%E -3.12%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 20:45 |
| Betsson | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.40%EV -2.55%E -1.91%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.60%EV -11.27%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 22:29 |
| NordicBet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.40%EV -2.55%E -1.91%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.60%EV -11.27%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 22:30 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -5.48%E -4.25%K -18.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -11.80%E -3.58%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-04 22:13 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 0.4% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 0.4% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-08-04 22:10 |
| Kalshi | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-08-04 21:00 |
| Polymarket | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-08-04 22:10 |
| Novig | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| BetOpenly | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.73% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 26.27% | 1.2% | 2026-08-04 22:35 |
| Matchbook | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.67% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.33% | 1.3% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |
| Smarkets | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.41% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59% | 1.7% | 2026-08-04 22:20 |
| ProphetX | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.41% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59% | 1.7% | 2026-08-04 22:40 |