The School of Odds

Miami Marlins v Seattle Mariners

2026-07-09 22:41 — MLB

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Miami Marlins (Local)

Prediction 42.94%2.33fair odd
EV -0.809%
Edge -0.350%
Kelly -0.618%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.24%42.99%42.89%44.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.102.212.202.31MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
42.24%2.367Min
44.01%2.272Max
42.99%2.326Mean
42.89%2.331Median
42.94%2.329IQM
42.94%2.329Margin-weighted

Seattle Mariners (Visit)

Prediction 57.06%1.75fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -3.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%57.01%57.11%57.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.621.671.671.71MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
55.99%1.786Min
57.76%1.731Max
57.01%1.754Mean
57.11%1.751Median
57.06%1.753IQM
57.06%1.753Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

BookmakerMiami Marlins (Local) ▼Seattle Mariners (Visit)MarginUpdated
Pinnacle2.31I 43.29% NM 42.25%EV -0.809% E -0.350% K -0.618% G +0.000%1.69I 59.17% NM 57.75%EV -3.57% E -2.11% K -5.17% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-09 01:45
1xBet2.29I 43.67% NM 42.75%EV -1.67% E -0.728% K -1.29% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 57.25%EV -2.43% E -1.42% K -3.42% G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-09 01:44
Bovada2.27I 44.05% NM 42.24%EV -2.53% E -1.11% K -1.99% G +0.000%1.66I 60.24% NM 57.76%EV -5.28% E -3.18% K -8.00% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 02:35
theScore Bet2.25I 44.44% NM 42.89%EV -3.39% E -1.50% K -2.71% G +0.000%1.69I 59.17% NM 57.11%EV -3.57% E -2.11% K -5.17% G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-08 23:35
TAB2.25I 44.44% NM 42.75%EV -3.39% E -1.50% K -2.71% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 57.25%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 01:05
Fanatics2.25I 44.44% NM 42.60%EV -3.39% E -1.50% K -2.71% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 57.40%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 23:04
Coral2.25I 44.44% NM 42.60%EV -3.39% E -1.50% K -2.71% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 57.40%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 22:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44% NM 42.60%EV -3.39% E -1.50% K -2.71% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 57.40%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 22:35
BetMGM2.25I 44.44% NM 42.60%EV -3.39% E -1.50% K -2.71% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 57.40%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 22:35
Betway2.25I 44.44% NM 42.60%EV -3.39% E -1.50% K -2.71% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 57.40%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 23:54
Svenska Spel2.23I 44.84% NM 43.26%EV -4.24% E -1.90% K -3.45% G +0.000%1.70I 58.82% NM 56.74%EV -3.00% E -1.76% K -4.28% G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-09 01:25
MyBookie.ag2.23I 44.84% NM 43.11%EV -4.24% E -1.90% K -3.45% G +0.000%1.69I 59.17% NM 56.89%EV -3.57% E -2.11% K -5.17% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-08 22:43
Unibet (SE)2.23I 44.84% NM 42.97%EV -4.24% E -1.90% K -3.45% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 57.03%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-09 00:15
Unibet (NL)2.23I 44.84% NM 42.97%EV -4.24% E -1.90% K -3.45% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 57.03%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-09 00:15
DraftKings2.23I 44.84% NM 42.82%EV -4.24% E -1.90% K -3.45% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 57.18%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-08 21:54
Marathon Bet2.22I 45.05% NM 42.78%EV -4.67% E -2.11% K -3.83% G +0.000%1.66I 60.24% NM 57.22%EV -5.28% E -3.18% K -8.00% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 01:40
Betsson2.22I 45.05% NM 42.78%EV -4.67% E -2.11% K -3.83% G +0.000%1.66I 60.24% NM 57.22%EV -5.28% E -3.18% K -8.00% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 01:00
NordicBet2.22I 45.05% NM 42.78%EV -4.67% E -2.11% K -3.83% G +0.000%1.66I 60.24% NM 57.22%EV -5.28% E -3.18% K -8.00% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 01:00
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45% NM 43.73%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.71I 58.48% NM 56.27%EV -2.43% E -1.42% K -3.42% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-08 20:25
FanDuel2.20I 45.45% NM 43.59%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.70I 58.82% NM 56.41%EV -3.00% E -1.76% K -4.28% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 20:20
Hard Rock Bet2.20I 45.45% NM 43.44%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.69I 59.17% NM 56.56%EV -3.57% E -2.11% K -5.17% G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-09 01:00
PlayUp2.20I 45.45% NM 43.30%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 56.70%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 22:00
Bet Right2.20I 45.45% NM 43.30%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 56.70%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 22:00
Neds2.20I 45.45% NM 43.30%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 56.70%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:29
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45% NM 43.30%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 56.70%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.20I 45.45% NM 43.30%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 56.70%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 00:15
Unibet2.20I 45.45% NM 43.30%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 56.70%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 00:15
Casumo2.20I 45.45% NM 43.30%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 56.70%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:14
ATG (SE)2.20I 45.45% NM 43.30%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 56.70%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:14
Bally Bet2.20I 45.45% NM 43.30%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 56.70%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:19
betPARX2.20I 45.45% NM 43.30%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 56.70%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 01:25
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 21:54
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 22:19
ReBet2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 22:44
888sport2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 20:29
Betr (AU)2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 22:00
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 20:30
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 20:30
LiveScore Bet2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 01:25
Virgin Bet2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 01:25
BetRivers2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 01:25
TABtouch2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 01:25
Dabble (AU)2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 01:40
William Hill2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 01:55
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45% NM 43.01%EV -5.53% E -2.51% K -4.61% G +0.000%1.66I 60.24% NM 56.99%EV -5.28% E -3.18% K -8.00% G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-08 22:00
Betclic (FR)2.19I 45.66% NM 43.12%EV -5.96% E -2.72% K -5.01% G +0.000%1.66I 60.24% NM 56.88%EV -5.28% E -3.18% K -8.00% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 22:00
Grosvenor2.17I 46.08% NM 43.19%EV -6.82% E -3.14% K -5.83% G +0.000%1.65I 60.61% NM 56.81%EV -5.85% E -3.55% K -9.00% G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-09 01:30
Fliff2.15I 46.51% NM 44.01%EV -7.68% E -3.57% K -6.68% G +0.000%1.69I 59.17% NM 55.99%EV -3.57% E -2.11% K -5.17% G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-09 02:35
SportsBet2.15I 46.51% NM 43.86%EV -7.68% E -3.57% K -6.68% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 56.14%EV -4.14% E -2.46% K -6.09% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-08 20:20
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51% NM 43.72%EV -7.68% E -3.57% K -6.68% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 56.28%EV -4.71% E -2.82% K -7.03% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-08 20:20
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62% NM 43.55%EV -9.83% E -4.68% K -8.93% G +0.000%1.62I 61.73% NM 56.45%EV -7.56% E -4.67% K -12.20% G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-08 22:45
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62% NM 43.55%EV -9.83% E -4.68% K -8.93% G +0.000%1.62I 61.73% NM 56.45%EV -7.56% E -4.67% K -12.20% G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-08 23:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerMiami Marlins (Local)Seattle Mariners (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.27I 44.05% NM 44.09%1.79I 55.87% NM 55.91%-0.1%2026-07-08 22:40
Novig2.30I 43.48% NM 43.07%1.74I 57.47% NM 56.93%0.9%2026-07-09 02:28
Polymarket2.27I 44.05% NM 43.53%1.75I 57.14% NM 56.47%1.2%2026-07-08 21:45
ProphetX2.28I 43.86% NM 43.00%1.72I 58.14% NM 57.00%2.0%2026-07-09 01:30
Matchbook2.28I 43.86% NM 42.71%1.70I 58.82% NM 57.29%2.7%2026-07-09 01:40
Smarkets2.14I 46.73% NM 43.68%1.66I 60.24% NM 56.32%7.0%2026-07-09 02:35