La escuela de los momios

Miami Marlins v Seattle Mariners

Inicio: 2026-07-09 22:41 UTC

Final: Miami Marlins 8–4 Seattle Mariners

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

64 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Miami Marlins (Local)

Predicción 45.86%2.18momio equitativo
EV -0.024%
Ventaja -0.011%
Kelly -0.020%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.30%46.06%45.83%48.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.952.092.102.1851.28%47.79%47.62%45.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Seattle Mariners (Visitante)

Predicción 54.14%1.85momio equitativo
EV -0.925%
Ventaja -0.505%
Kelly -1.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.00%53.94%54.17%55.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.681.761.751.8359.52%56.98%57.14%54.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -0.024%E -0.011%K -0.020%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -5.26%E -3.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-09 22:34
Everygame2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%EV -0.483%E -0.222%K -0.412%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%EV -3.09%E -1.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-09 22:34
GTbets2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32%EV -0.941%E -0.436%K -0.811%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68%EV -3.09%E -1.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-09 22:35
Unibet (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -1.40%E -0.651%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 22:34
Unibet (NL)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -1.40%E -0.651%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 22:35
Fliff2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -1.40%E -0.651%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -7.42%E -4.34%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 22:29
Pinnacle2.14I 46.73%NM 45.82%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.18%EV -2.01%E -1.11%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-09 22:39
BetUS2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.31%EV -2.55%E -1.42%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-09 22:14
BetOnline.ag2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%EV -3.09%E -1.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-09 22:34
LowVig.ag2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%EV -3.09%E -1.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.6%2026-07-09 22:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 22:34
Unibet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 22:34
Casumo2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 22:35
ATG (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 22:34
Bally Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 22:34
betPARX2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 22:35
LiveScore Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -7.42%E -4.34%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 22:09
Virgin Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -7.42%E -4.34%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 22:05
BetRivers2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -7.42%E -4.34%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 22:09
TABtouch2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -1.86%E -0.868%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -7.42%E -4.34%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 22:10
1xBet2.12I 47.17%NM 46.33%EV -2.78%E -1.31%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.67%EV -0.925%E -0.505%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.8%2026-07-09 22:09
FanDuel2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -2.78%E -1.31%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -4.71%E -2.68%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 22:40
BetAnything2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31%EV -3.23%E -1.53%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69%EV -1.47%E -0.806%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-09 22:30
MyBookie.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 45.88%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.12%EV -3.63%E -2.04%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-09 22:39
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.17%E -2.36%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 22:10
ReBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.17%E -2.36%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 22:35
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.17%E -2.36%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 15:20
Caesars2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.17%E -2.36%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 22:10
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -4.71%E -2.68%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-09 22:34
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.26%E -3.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 22:29
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.26%E -3.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 22:29
TAB2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.26%E -3.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 22:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.26%E -3.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 22:40
BetMGM2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.80%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 22:34
Hard Rock Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.80%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 19:40
Dabble (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.88%E -4.00%K -9.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-09 22:24
Grosvenor2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -3.69%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -9.05%E -5.38%K -13.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-09 22:05
DraftKings2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -4.15%E -1.99%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -4.71%E -2.68%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 22:34
Bet Right2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -4.61%E -2.22%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.71%E -2.68%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 22:24
Coolbet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -4.61%E -2.22%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -4.71%E -2.68%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 22:24
SportsBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -4.61%E -2.22%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -5.80%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-09 22:40
Betsson2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.07%E -2.45%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.71%E -2.68%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 22:34
NordicBet2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.07%E -2.45%K -4.74%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.71%E -2.68%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 22:34
Marathon Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.53%E -2.68%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -4.71%E -2.68%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 22:35
PointsBet (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.55%E -1.42%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 15:20
PlayUp2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.17%E -2.36%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 22:39
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.17%E -2.36%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 22:30
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.17%E -2.36%K -5.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 22:30
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -4.71%E -2.68%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 15:40
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.26%E -3.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 16:30
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.26%E -3.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 16:30
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.26%E -3.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 16:30
LeoVegas2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.26%E -3.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 22:34
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.80%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-09 22:34
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.80%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-09 22:34
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.80%E -3.33%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-09 22:34
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-09 22:39
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-09 15:20
Unibet (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV -6.44%E -3.16%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -0.925%E -0.505%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-09 22:40
Betclic (FR)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%EV -7.36%E -3.64%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -7.42%E -4.34%K -10.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-09 22:33
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.55%E -1.42%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 22:39
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.55%E -1.42%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 17:05
Tipico (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.17%E -2.36%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-09 16:29
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -2.55%E -1.42%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-09 22:33
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%0.4%2026-07-09 22:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.50%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.50%0.8%2026-07-09 22:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.50%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.50%0.8%2026-07-09 22:40
ProphetX2.19I 45.66%NM 45.25%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.75%0.9%2026-07-09 22:40
Polymarket2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%1.0%2026-07-09 22:40
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%1.0%2026-07-09 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.73%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.27%1.2%2026-07-09 22:40
Matchbook2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41%1.5%2026-07-09 22:40
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 45.82%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.18%2.0%2026-07-09 22:40
BetOpenly2.13I 46.95%NM 45.94%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.06%2.2%2026-07-09 16:19