Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Royals v Chicago Cubs

2026-08-09 18:10 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Royals (Local)

Prediction 40.56%2.47fair odd
EV +1.40%
Edge +0.558%
Kelly +0.931%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%40.53%40.54%41.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.362.352.5044.44%42.39%42.55%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Cubs (Visit)

Prediction 59.44%1.68fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -4.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.97%59.47%59.46%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.591.601.6365.36%62.80%62.50%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Kansas City Royals (Local): 40.56%; Chicago Cubs (Visit): 59.44%. For Kansas City Royals (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.50, producing a positive expected value of +1.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +1.40%E +0.558%K +0.931%G +0.013%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.05%E -5.92%K -17.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 18:19
1xBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85%EV -0.226%E -0.092%K -0.155%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15%EV -3.11%E -1.91%K -4.94%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-08 19:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -0.632%E -0.258%K -0.436%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -3.70%E -2.29%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-08 19:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.80%EV -0.632%E -0.258%K -0.436%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 60.20%EV -3.70%E -2.29%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-08 19:10
Fliff🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -0.632%E -0.258%K -0.436%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.68%E -4.25%K -11.71%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-08 19:05
DraftKings🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -3.47%E -1.46%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.89%E -3.06%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-08 19:10
Bet Right🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -3.47%E -1.46%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -4.89%E -3.06%K -8.16%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-08 19:05
FanDuel🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.28%E -1.81%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.70%E -2.29%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 18:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -4.69%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.11%E -1.91%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-08 19:04
Betway🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.69%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.30%E -2.67%K -7.05%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 19:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.69%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.89%E -3.06%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 19:09
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.69%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.89%E -3.06%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 19:09
888sport🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.69%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.89%E -3.06%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.69%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.89%E -3.06%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 19:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.69%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.89%E -3.06%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 19:04
ReBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.69%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.49%E -3.45%K -9.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 19:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.69%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.49%E -3.45%K -9.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.69%E -1.99%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.08%E -3.85%K -10.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 19:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.41%EV -5.50%E -2.36%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -6.08%E -3.85%K -10.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 19:08
SportsBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.77%EV -6.31%E -2.73%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.23%EV -5.49%E -3.45%K -9.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 19:00
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.72%E -2.92%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.89%E -3.06%K -8.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 19:00
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.72%E -2.92%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.68%E -4.25%K -11.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 19:10
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.72%E -2.92%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.68%E -4.25%K -11.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 19:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.27%E -4.66%K -12.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 19:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.74%E -3.89%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -7.87%E -5.07%K -14.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 19:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 39.05%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.95%0.0%2026-08-08 18:05
Polymarket2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%1.0%2026-08-08 18:04
Novig2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.21%7.9%2026-08-08 19:10
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 40.96%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.04%10.0%2026-08-08 19:10