The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 18:11 UTC

Final: Cleveland Guardians 11–1 Kansas City Royals

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Prediction 62.29%1.61fair odd
EV -0.344%
Edge -0.215%
Kelly -0.573%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.30%62.40%62.24%63.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.551.551.6067.57%64.69%64.52%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas City Royals (Visit)

Prediction 37.71%2.65fair odd
EV +1.83%
Edge +0.678%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.17%37.60%37.76%39.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.522.502.7042.02%39.73%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 62.29%; Kansas City Royals (Visit): 37.71%. For Kansas City Royals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%EV -4.70%E -3.07%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%EV +1.83%E +0.678%K +1.08%G +0.020%2.4%2026-08-30 16:44
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.81%EV -5.33%E -3.50%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.19%EV +1.08%E +0.401%K +0.640%G +0.007%3.1%2026-08-30 18:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.80%EV -2.21%E -1.41%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 37.20%EV -0.056%E -0.021%K -0.034%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-30 17:59
Everygame🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 63.25%EV -4.08%E -2.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.75%EV -0.056%E -0.021%K -0.034%G +0.000%2.7%2026-08-30 17:44
theScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.98%EV -4.08%E -2.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.02%EV -1.19%E -0.453%K -0.733%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-30 14:10
GTbets🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.44%EV -2.21%E -1.41%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.56%EV -1.56%E -0.599%K -0.972%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-30 18:00
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.35%EV -2.21%E -1.41%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.65%EV -1.94%E -0.747%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.2%2026-08-30 18:10
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.82%E -5.28%K -16.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -1.94%E -0.747%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:10
Dabble (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.82%E -5.28%K -16.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -1.94%E -0.747%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 14:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.26%EV -2.21%E -1.41%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.74%EV -2.32%E -0.895%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-30 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.26%EV -2.21%E -1.41%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.74%EV -2.32%E -0.895%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-30 18:00
BetUS🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.56%EV -3.46%E -2.23%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.44%EV -2.32%E -0.895%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-30 17:59
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 61.54%EV -0.344%E -0.215%K -0.573%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.46%EV -3.45%E -1.35%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-30 18:00
BetAnything🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -2.21%E -1.41%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -3.83%E -1.50%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-30 18:00
Fliff🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.95%E -3.94%K -11.67%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.83%E -1.50%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 17:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -3.83%E -1.50%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 14:29
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.70%E -3.07%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -4.96%E -1.97%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 18:09
Fanatics🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.84%E -1.82%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 18:00
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.46%E -2.23%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-30 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.46%E -2.23%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-30 18:10
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.46%E -2.23%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-30 18:10
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.46%E -2.23%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-30 17:40
Bet Right🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.08%E -2.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 18:09
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.08%E -2.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 18:10
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.70%E -3.07%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 18:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.70%E -3.07%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 18:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.70%E -3.07%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 18:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.70%E -3.07%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 18:09
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.70%E -3.07%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 19:20
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -2.84%E -1.82%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-30 17:43
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -2.84%E -1.82%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-30 17:42
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -2.84%E -1.82%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-30 17:42
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -2.84%E -1.82%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-30 17:42
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -2.84%E -1.82%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-30 17:42
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -2.84%E -1.82%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-30 17:42
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -2.84%E -1.82%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-30 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -2.84%E -1.82%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-30 17:42
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -2.84%E -1.82%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-30 17:42
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -2.84%E -1.82%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-30 18:00
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.08%E -2.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -6.47%E -2.61%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -2.21%E -1.41%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-30 18:00
TABtouch🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.46%E -2.23%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -4.70%E -3.07%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -8.35%E -3.44%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 17:42
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.36%EV -4.70%E -3.07%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.64%EV -8.35%E -3.44%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 17:42
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -1.59%E -1.01%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -9.48%E -3.95%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 18:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -1.59%E -1.01%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -9.48%E -3.95%K -6.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 18:09
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.70%E -3.07%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.24%E -4.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 18:00
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.34%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -10.24%E -4.30%K -7.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-30 17:42
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.94%2.70I 37.04%NM 37.06%-0.1%2026-08-30 18:05
Novig◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.68%2.67I 37.45%NM 37.32%0.3%2026-08-30 18:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%0.9%2026-08-30 18:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%0.9%2026-08-30 18:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%0.9%2026-08-30 18:10
ProphetX◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94%1.0%2026-08-30 18:10
Polymarket◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-08-30 13:40
Matchbook◎1.57I 63.69%NM 62.17%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.83%2.5%2026-08-30 18:10