Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Guardians v Kansas City Royals

2026-08-30 17:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cleveland Guardians (Local)

Predicción 62.63%1.60momio equitativo
EV +0.209%
Ventaja +0.131%
Kelly +0.348%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.25%62.70%62.65%64.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.451.521.511.6068.97%65.82%66.23%62.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kansas City Royals (Visitante)

Predicción 37.37%2.68momio equitativo
EV +1.64%
Ventaja +0.605%
Kelly +0.956%
Crecimiento +0.016%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.02%37.30%37.35%38.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.562.552.7241.67%39.06%39.22%36.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Cleveland Guardians (Local): 62.63%; Kansas City Royals (Visitante): 37.37%. Para Kansas City Royals (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.68. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.72, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.64%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
FanDuel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -6.68%E -4.48%K -13.63%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.39%EV +1.64%E +0.605%K +0.956%G +0.016%3.9%2026-08-29 21:10
Caesars🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.83%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.17%EV +0.898%E +0.332%K +0.528%G +0.005%2.4%2026-08-29 21:23
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.98%EV -9.19%E -6.33%K -20.41%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.02%EV +0.524%E +0.195%K +0.310%G +0.002%6.1%2026-08-29 21:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.80%EV -1.67%E -1.06%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 37.20%EV -0.971%E -0.366%K -0.588%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-29 21:25
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -6.05%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -0.971%E -0.366%K -0.588%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-30 01:00
GTbets🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.68%EV -2.30%E -1.47%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32%EV -2.09%E -0.798%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.3%2026-08-29 20:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.05%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -2.09%E -0.798%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 01:00
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.05%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -2.09%E -0.798%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 01:00
Paddy Power🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.06%EV -7.93%E -5.40%K -16.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.94%EV -2.09%E -0.798%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 21:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -2.30%E -1.47%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-29 20:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -2.30%E -1.47%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-29 20:25
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-29 23:20
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-29 21:10
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 01:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 01:05
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 01:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 01:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 01:05
Bally Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 01:05
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 01:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 01:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 01:05
Unibet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 01:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -3.59%E -1.39%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 00:14
Bet Right🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93%EV -4.80%E -3.16%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -3.59%E -1.39%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-30 02:15
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 62.08%EV -1.67%E -1.06%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.92%EV -3.96%E -1.54%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.6%2026-08-29 22:20
DraftKings🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.84%EV -4.80%E -3.16%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.16%EV -3.96%E -1.54%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 23:20
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%EV -2.30%E -1.47%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV -4.33%E -1.69%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 20:35
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.71%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-29 22:45
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.71%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-30 01:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.71%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-30 01:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.80%E -3.16%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.71%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-29 23:20
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.80%E -3.16%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.71%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 02:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.71%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 02:15
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.05%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.71%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 19:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.05%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.71%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 19:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.05%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.71%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 19:20
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -6.05%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.71%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 01:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -6.68%E -4.48%K -13.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -4.71%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 01:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -6.68%E -4.48%K -13.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -4.71%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 01:05
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 61.26%EV +0.209%E +0.131%K +0.348%G +0.001%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.74%EV -5.46%E -2.16%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-29 21:40
BetAnything🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -2.30%E -1.47%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -5.83%E -2.31%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-30 01:35
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -3.55%E -2.30%K -6.57%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -5.83%E -2.31%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-30 02:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -2.30%E -1.47%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 19:10
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.92%E -1.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 23:20
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.92%E -1.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 22:55
Fliff🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 01:45
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 19:20
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 23:45
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 23:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.80%E -3.16%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 20:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 23:20
ReBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 19:20
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.05%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 19:19
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.05%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 19:18
Dabble (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.05%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 00:45
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -9.19%E -6.33%K -20.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 01:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.92%E -1.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.44%E -3.45%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 21:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.18%EV -6.68%E -4.48%K -13.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -8.44%E -3.45%K -5.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 23:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -7.31%E -4.94%K -15.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -10.31%E -4.30%K -7.37%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 23:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-08-30 01:40
Polymarket1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%0.9%2026-08-29 23:35
ProphetX1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-08-30 01:20
Novig1.56I 64.10%NM 63.12%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.88%1.6%2026-08-30 02:10
Matchbook1.56I 64.10%NM 61.95%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.05%3.5%2026-08-29 22:20
Smarkets1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%8.8%2026-08-30 02:15
Arbitraje (3 combinaciones) +0.74%1xBet 1.60 (63.0%) / FanDuel 2.72 (37.0%)Ver las 3 combinaciones
Cleveland Guardians (Local)Kansas City Royals (Visitante)Margen
1xBet🎯 1.60 (63.0%)FanDuel🎯 2.72 (37.0%)+0.741%
1xBet🎯 1.60 (62.8%)Caesars🎯 2.70 (37.2%)+0.465%
1xBet🎯 1.60 (62.7%)SportsBet🎯 2.69 (37.3%)+0.326%