Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baltimore Orioles v Philadelphia Phillies

2026-08-02 17:36 UTC — MLB

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Prediction 45.57%2.19fair odd
EV +0.262%
Edge +0.119%
Kelly +0.218%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%45.52%45.71%46.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.102.2050.00%47.67%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Phillies (Visit)

Prediction 54.43%1.84fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.66%54.48%54.29%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.751.751.8059.17%57.22%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Baltimore Orioles (Local): 45.57%; Philadelphia Phillies (Visit): 54.43%. For Baltimore Orioles (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.20, producing a positive expected value of +0.262%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72%EV +0.262%E +0.119%K +0.218%G +0.001%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28%EV -3.12%E -1.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-01 18:05
Hard Rock Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58%EV +0.262%E +0.119%K +0.218%G +0.001%1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42%EV -3.67%E -2.07%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.0%2026-08-01 19:30
GTbets2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -0.650%E -0.298%K -0.551%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -3.12%E -1.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-01 18:35
BetOnline.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -1.56%E -0.723%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -3.12%E -1.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 18:04
LowVig.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 45.18%EV -1.56%E -0.723%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.82%EV -3.12%E -1.75%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-01 18:04
1xBet2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -2.02%E -0.938%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -2.03%E -1.13%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.1%2026-08-01 18:18
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.02%E -0.938%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.30%E -3.04%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 20:00
Fliff2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.02%E -0.938%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.93%E -4.05%K -9.76%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-01 18:14
Bovada2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -2.47%E -1.16%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -5.30%E -3.04%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-01 21:04
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.67%E -2.07%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 20:45
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.67%E -2.07%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 18:04
Caesars2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.67%E -2.07%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 20:44
Unibet (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.75%E -2.72%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 20:44
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.75%E -2.72%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 20:49
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.75%E -2.72%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 21:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.75%E -2.72%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 21:29
BetMGM2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.30%E -3.04%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 21:29
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 18:05
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 18:09
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 18:09
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 18:09
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 18:10
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 18:39
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.30%E -2.05%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.39%E -3.71%K -8.87%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 18:05
DraftKings2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -4.75%E -2.27%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -4.21%E -2.39%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-01 20:45
PlayUp2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.21%E -2.50%K -4.82%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.75%E -2.72%K -6.34%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-01 18:09
NordicBet2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.66%E -2.74%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.21%E -2.39%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 18:04
Betsson2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -5.66%E -2.74%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.21%E -2.39%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 18:04
Betclic (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 45.53%EV -5.66%E -2.74%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.47%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-01 20:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.57%E -3.21%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.67%E -2.07%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 21:30
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.57%E -3.21%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.67%E -2.07%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 21:29
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.57%E -3.21%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.75%E -2.72%K -6.34%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 18:05
ReBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.57%E -3.21%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.30%E -3.04%K -7.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 20:45
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.57%E -3.21%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.30%E -3.04%K -7.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 20:44
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.57%E -3.21%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-01 20:48
betano_uk2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.57%E -3.21%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-01 20:45
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.85%E -4.43%K -8.85%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.48%E -4.40%K -10.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-01 20:49
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.80%EV -8.85%E -4.43%K -8.85%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -8.02%E -4.75%K -11.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 20:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-08-01 19:10
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%0.9%2026-08-01 18:45
Novig2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%1.3%2026-08-01 22:10
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 45.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.22%9.8%2026-08-01 20:45