The School of Odds

Baltimore Orioles v Chicago Cubs

Kickoff: 2026-07-08 22:36 UTC

Final: Baltimore Orioles 7–9 Chicago Cubs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

63 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Prediction 53.79%1.86fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.858%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%53.75%53.75%56.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.761.771.8360.24%56.74%56.50%54.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Chicago Cubs (Visit)

Prediction 46.21%2.16fair odd
EV +0.746%
Edge +0.342%
Kelly +0.632%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.81%46.25%46.25%48.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.952.092.082.1851.28%47.89%48.08%45.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -8.03%E -4.69%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%4.4%2026-07-08 22:35
Unibet (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -8.03%E -4.69%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%4.4%2026-07-08 22:35
Svenska Spel1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -8.03%E -4.69%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%4.4%2026-07-08 22:35
Casumo1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%4.7%2026-07-08 22:35
Unibet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%4.7%2026-07-08 22:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%4.7%2026-07-08 22:35
Bally Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%4.7%2026-07-08 22:35
betPARX1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%4.7%2026-07-08 22:35
ATG (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%4.7%2026-07-08 22:35
GTbets1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%EV -3.72%E -2.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%EV +0.284%E +0.131%K +0.242%G +0.001%1.9%2026-07-08 22:35
BetRivers1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV +0.284%E +0.131%K +0.242%G +0.001%4.9%2026-07-08 22:35
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV +0.284%E +0.131%K +0.242%G +0.001%4.9%2026-07-08 22:35
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV +0.284%E +0.131%K +0.242%G +0.001%4.9%2026-07-08 22:35
TABtouch1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV +0.284%E +0.131%K +0.242%G +0.001%4.9%2026-07-08 22:35
Pinnacle1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -0.641%E -0.298%K -0.557%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-08 22:15
Everygame1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -0.641%E -0.298%K -0.557%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-08 22:19
LowVig.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -3.72%E -2.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -0.641%E -0.298%K -0.557%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-08 22:35
BetOnline.ag1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -3.72%E -2.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -0.641%E -0.298%K -0.557%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-08 22:35
BetUS1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -3.72%E -2.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -0.641%E -0.298%K -0.557%G +0.000%2.4%2026-07-08 22:35
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -6.41%E -3.68%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -0.641%E -0.298%K -0.557%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-08 20:14
1xBet1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%EV -2.11%E -1.16%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%EV -1.56%E -0.735%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-08 21:50
Bovada1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -2.03%E -0.956%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 22:09
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 56.08%EV -10.71%E -6.45%K -16.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -2.03%E -0.956%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-08 22:35
BetAnything1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -1.57%E -0.858%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.95%E -1.41%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-08 21:50
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.95%E -1.41%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 20:15
Hard Rock Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.95%E -1.41%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 05:05
Caesars1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.95%E -1.41%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 21:45
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.95%E -1.41%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 02:30
Dabble (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.95%E -1.41%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-08 22:25
MyBookie.ag1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -4.26%E -2.39%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -3.41%E -1.63%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-08 19:54
FanDuel1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -3.72%E -2.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.88%E -1.86%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-08 14:50
Marathon Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.88%E -1.86%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-08 22:34
SportsBet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.80%E -2.33%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 14:50
Bet Right1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.80%E -2.33%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 21:49
ReBet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 19:54
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 21:50
BetMGM1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 21:49
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 21:49
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 20:10
TAB1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 21:50
DraftKings1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.72%E -2.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 19:49
Ladbrokes (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.26%E -2.39%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 21:50
Neds1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.26%E -2.39%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 21:50
Coolbet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.26%E -2.39%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 21:50
Unibet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 22:24
PlayUp1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 22:34
Betr (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.34%E -3.03%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 02:05
888sport1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 21:49
888sport (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 21:49
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 21:50
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.95%E -4.02%K -9.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-08 06:29
Betsson1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.26%E -2.39%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -6.19%E -3.05%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 22:35
NordicBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.26%E -2.39%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -6.19%E -3.05%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 22:33
Unibet (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -1.57%E -0.858%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -6.65%E -3.29%K -6.52%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 22:35
Winamax (DE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.57%E -3.79%K -7.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 22:35
Fliff1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.57%E -3.79%K -7.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 22:29
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.57%E -3.79%K -7.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 20:49
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.57%E -3.79%K -7.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 22:35
Tipico (DE)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.57%E -3.79%K -7.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-08 19:54
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.57%E -3.79%K -7.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-08 20:10
Betclic (FR)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -6.95%E -4.02%K -9.52%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -8.03%E -4.04%K -8.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-08 22:12
Winamax (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -8.50%E -4.29%K -8.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-08 22:35
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.88%E -5.07%K -10.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-08 22:28
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%0.1%2026-07-08 22:34
ProphetX1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%0.7%2026-07-08 22:35
Smarkets1.82I 54.95%NM 54.50%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.50%0.8%2026-07-08 22:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.0%2026-07-08 22:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.0%2026-07-08 22:30
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-07-08 22:05
Polymarket1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-07-08 19:35
Novig1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%1.3%2026-07-08 22:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%1.3%2026-07-08 22:35
Matchbook1.79I 55.87%NM 54.22%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.78%3.0%2026-07-08 22:35