Baltimore Orioles v Chicago Cubs

Inicio: 2026-07-08 22:36 UTC

Final: Baltimore Orioles 7–9 Chicago Cubs

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (21 en el análisis )

54%

46%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Predicción 53.79%1.86momio equitativo

EV -1.57%

Ventaja -0.858%

Kelly -1.89%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

52.00%53.75%53.75%56.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Distribución de los momios

1.661.761.771.8360.24%56.74%56.50%54.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Chicago Cubs (Visitante)

Predicción 46.21%2.16momio equitativo

EV +0.746%

Ventaja +0.342%

Kelly +0.632%

Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

43.81%46.25%46.25%48.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Distribución de los momios

1.952.092.082.1851.28%47.89%48.08%45.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local	Visitante ▼	Margen	Actualizado
Unibet (NL)	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -8.03%E -4.69%K -11.30%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%	4.4%	2026-07-08 22:35
Unibet (SE)	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -8.03%E -4.69%K -11.30%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%	4.4%	2026-07-08 22:35
Svenska Spel	1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -8.03%E -4.69%K -11.30%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%	4.4%	2026-07-08 22:35
Casumo	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%	4.7%	2026-07-08 22:35
Unibet	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%	4.7%	2026-07-08 22:35
LeoVegas (SE)	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%	4.7%	2026-07-08 22:35
Bally Bet	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%	4.7%	2026-07-08 22:35
betPARX	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%	4.7%	2026-07-08 22:35
ATG (SE)	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV +0.746%E +0.342%K +0.632%G +0.005%	4.7%	2026-07-08 22:35
GTbets	1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%EV -3.72%E -2.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%	2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%EV +0.284%E +0.131%K +0.242%G +0.001%	1.9%	2026-07-08 22:35
BetRivers	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV +0.284%E +0.131%K +0.242%G +0.001%	4.9%	2026-07-08 22:35
LiveScore Bet	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV +0.284%E +0.131%K +0.242%G +0.001%	4.9%	2026-07-08 22:35
Virgin Bet	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV +0.284%E +0.131%K +0.242%G +0.001%	4.9%	2026-07-08 22:35
TABtouch	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -8.56%E -5.04%K -12.23%G +0.000%	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV +0.284%E +0.131%K +0.242%G +0.001%	4.9%	2026-07-08 22:35
Pinnacle	1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -0.641%E -0.298%K -0.557%G +0.000%	2.1%	2026-07-08 22:15
Everygame	1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -0.641%E -0.298%K -0.557%G +0.000%	2.1%	2026-07-08 22:19
LowVig.ag	1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -3.72%E -2.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -0.641%E -0.298%K -0.557%G +0.000%	2.4%	2026-07-08 22:35
BetOnline.ag	1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -3.72%E -2.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -0.641%E -0.298%K -0.557%G +0.000%	2.4%	2026-07-08 22:35
BetUS	1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -3.72%E -2.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -0.641%E -0.298%K -0.557%G +0.000%	2.4%	2026-07-08 22:35
PointsBet (AU)	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -6.41%E -3.68%K -8.66%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -0.641%E -0.298%K -0.557%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-07-08 20:14
1xBet	1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%EV -2.11%E -1.16%K -2.57%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%EV -1.56%E -0.735%K -1.38%G +0.000%	1.9%	2026-07-08 21:50
Bovada	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -2.03%E -0.956%K -1.81%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-08 22:09
Grosvenor	1.66I 60.24%NM 56.08%EV -10.71%E -6.45%K -16.23%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 43.92%EV -2.03%E -0.956%K -1.81%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-07-08 22:35
BetAnything	1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -1.57%E -0.858%K -1.89%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -2.95%E -1.41%K -2.68%G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-07-08 21:50
Fanatics	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.95%E -1.41%K -2.68%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-08 20:15
Hard Rock Bet	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.95%E -1.41%K -2.68%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-08 05:05
Caesars	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.95%E -1.41%K -2.68%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-08 21:45
theScore Bet	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.95%E -1.41%K -2.68%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-08 02:30
Dabble (AU)	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -2.95%E -1.41%K -2.68%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-08 22:25
MyBookie.ag	1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -4.26%E -2.39%K -5.46%G +0.000%	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -3.41%E -1.63%K -3.13%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-07-08 19:54
FanDuel	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -3.72%E -2.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -3.88%E -1.86%K -3.59%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-07-08 14:50
Marathon Bet	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -3.88%E -1.86%K -3.59%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-08 22:34
SportsBet	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.80%E -2.33%K -4.53%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-08 14:50
Bet Right	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.80%E -2.33%K -4.53%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-08 21:49
ReBet	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-08 19:54
Ladbrokes (UK)	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-08 21:50
BetMGM	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-08 21:49
Coral	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-08 21:49
LeoVegas	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-08 20:10
TAB	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-08 21:50
DraftKings	1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.72%E -2.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-08 19:49
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.26%E -2.39%K -5.46%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-08 21:50
Neds	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.26%E -2.39%K -5.46%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-08 21:50
Coolbet	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -4.26%E -2.39%K -5.46%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-08 21:50
Unibet (FR)	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-08 22:24
PlayUp	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-08 22:34
Betr (AU)	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.34%E -3.03%K -7.02%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-08 02:05
888sport	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-08 21:49
888sport (SE)	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-08 21:49
Mr Green (SE)	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-08 21:50
BoyleSports	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.95%E -4.02%K -9.52%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.26%E -2.57%K -5.01%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-08 06:29
Betsson	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.26%E -2.39%K -5.46%G +0.000%	2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -6.19%E -3.05%K -6.01%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 22:35
NordicBet	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -4.26%E -2.39%K -5.46%G +0.000%	2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -6.19%E -3.05%K -6.01%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 22:33
Unibet (UK)	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -1.57%E -0.858%K -1.89%G +0.000%	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -6.65%E -3.29%K -6.52%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-08 22:35
Winamax (DE)	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.57%E -3.79%K -7.57%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-08 22:35
Fliff	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.57%E -3.79%K -7.57%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-08 22:29
William Hill	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.57%E -3.79%K -7.57%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-08 20:49
Betway	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.57%E -3.79%K -7.57%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-08 22:35
Tipico (DE)	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.80%E -2.71%K -6.23%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.57%E -3.79%K -7.57%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-07-08 19:54
Paddy Power	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.87%E -3.36%K -7.83%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.57%E -3.79%K -7.57%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-08 20:10
Betclic (FR)	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%EV -6.95%E -4.02%K -9.52%G +0.000%	1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%EV -8.03%E -4.04%K -8.12%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-07-08 22:12
Winamax (FR)	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -8.50%E -4.29%K -8.67%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-08 22:35
Bet Victor	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.18%E -1.77%K -3.98%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.88%E -5.07%K -10.40%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-08 22:28

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
BetOpenly	1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%	2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%	0.1%	2026-07-08 22:34
ProphetX	1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%	2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%	0.7%	2026-07-08 22:35
Smarkets	1.82I 54.95%NM 54.50%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.50%	0.8%	2026-07-08 22:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%	2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%	1.0%	2026-07-08 22:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%	2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%	1.0%	2026-07-08 22:30
Kalshi	1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%	2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%	1.0%	2026-07-08 22:05
Polymarket	1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%	2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%	1.0%	2026-07-08 19:35
Novig	1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%	2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%	1.3%	2026-07-08 22:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14%	2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86%	1.3%	2026-07-08 22:35
Matchbook	1.79I 55.87%NM 54.22%	2.12I 47.17%NM 45.78%	3.0%	2026-07-08 22:35