The School of Odds

Baltimore Orioles v Chicago Cubs

2026-07-09 17:36 — MLB

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Prediction 54.14%1.85fair odd
EV -0.930%
Edge -0.508%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%54.06%54.18%54.83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.701.771.771.83MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
53.25%1.878Min
54.83%1.824Max
54.06%1.850Mean
54.18%1.846Median
54.14%1.847IQM
54.07%1.850Margin-weighted

Chicago Cubs (Visit)

Prediction 45.86%2.18fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.648%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%45.94%45.82%46.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.002.072.072.15MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
45.17%2.214Min
46.75%2.139Max
45.94%2.177Mean
45.82%2.182Median
45.86%2.180IQM
45.93%2.177Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)

BookmakerBaltimore Orioles (Local) ▼Chicago Cubs (Visit)MarginUpdated
1xBet1.83I 54.64% NM 53.44%EV -0.930% E -0.508% K -1.12% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 46.56%EV -3.69% E -1.76% K -3.35% G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-09 03:50
GTbets1.80I 55.56% NM 54.43%EV -2.55% E -1.42% K -3.19% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 45.57%EV -1.39% E -0.648% K -1.21% G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-09 05:24
Everygame1.80I 55.56% NM 54.43%EV -2.55% E -1.42% K -3.19% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 45.57%EV -1.39% E -0.648% K -1.21% G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-09 04:19
BetUS1.80I 55.56% NM 54.31%EV -2.55% E -1.42% K -3.19% G +0.000%2.14I 46.73% NM 45.69%EV -1.85% E -0.865% K -1.62% G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-09 05:25
Pinnacle1.80I 55.56% NM 54.20%EV -2.55% E -1.42% K -3.19% G +0.000%2.13I 46.95% NM 45.80%EV -2.31% E -1.08% K -2.04% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-09 07:15
BetOnline.ag1.80I 55.56% NM 54.20%EV -2.55% E -1.42% K -3.19% G +0.000%2.13I 46.95% NM 45.80%EV -2.31% E -1.08% K -2.04% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-09 05:24
LowVig.ag1.80I 55.56% NM 54.20%EV -2.55% E -1.42% K -3.19% G +0.000%2.13I 46.95% NM 45.80%EV -2.31% E -1.08% K -2.04% G +0.000%2.5%2026-07-09 05:24
Hard Rock Bet1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -2.55% E -1.42% K -3.19% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 02:14
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -2.55% E -1.42% K -3.19% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 05:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56% NM 53.25%EV -2.55% E -1.42% K -3.19% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.75%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-09 05:39
FanDuel1.79I 55.87% NM 53.75%EV -3.10% E -1.73% K -3.92% G +0.000%2.08I 48.08% NM 46.25%EV -4.60% E -2.21% K -4.26% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-09 01:55
BetAnything1.79I 55.87% NM 53.63%EV -3.10% E -1.73% K -3.92% G +0.000%2.07I 48.31% NM 46.37%EV -5.06% E -2.45% K -4.73% G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-09 05:49
Unibet (SE)1.79I 55.87% NM 53.63%EV -3.10% E -1.73% K -3.92% G +0.000%2.07I 48.31% NM 46.37%EV -5.06% E -2.45% K -4.73% G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-09 07:30
Unibet (NL)1.79I 55.87% NM 53.63%EV -3.10% E -1.73% K -3.92% G +0.000%2.07I 48.31% NM 46.37%EV -5.06% E -2.45% K -4.73% G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-09 07:30
Svenska Spel1.79I 55.87% NM 53.63%EV -3.10% E -1.73% K -3.92% G +0.000%2.07I 48.31% NM 46.37%EV -5.06% E -2.45% K -4.73% G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-09 07:30
MyBookie.ag1.78I 56.18% NM 54.01%EV -3.64% E -2.04% K -4.66% G +0.000%2.09I 47.85% NM 45.99%EV -4.15% E -1.98% K -3.80% G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-09 04:53
LeoVegas (SE)1.78I 56.18% NM 53.65%EV -3.64% E -2.04% K -4.66% G +0.000%2.06I 48.54% NM 46.35%EV -5.52% E -2.68% K -5.21% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 07:30
Unibet1.78I 56.18% NM 53.65%EV -3.64% E -2.04% K -4.66% G +0.000%2.06I 48.54% NM 46.35%EV -5.52% E -2.68% K -5.21% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 07:30
Casumo1.78I 56.18% NM 53.65%EV -3.64% E -2.04% K -4.66% G +0.000%2.06I 48.54% NM 46.35%EV -5.52% E -2.68% K -5.21% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 07:30
ATG (SE)1.78I 56.18% NM 53.65%EV -3.64% E -2.04% K -4.66% G +0.000%2.06I 48.54% NM 46.35%EV -5.52% E -2.68% K -5.21% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 07:30
Bally Bet1.78I 56.18% NM 53.65%EV -3.64% E -2.04% K -4.66% G +0.000%2.06I 48.54% NM 46.35%EV -5.52% E -2.68% K -5.21% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 07:28
betPARX1.78I 56.18% NM 53.65%EV -3.64% E -2.04% K -4.66% G +0.000%2.06I 48.54% NM 46.35%EV -5.52% E -2.68% K -5.21% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 07:30
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18% NM 53.40%EV -3.64% E -2.04% K -4.66% G +0.000%2.04I 49.02% NM 46.60%EV -6.44% E -3.16% K -6.19% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 06:40
Caesars1.77I 56.50% NM 54.26%EV -4.18% E -2.36% K -5.43% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.74%EV -3.69% E -1.76% K -3.35% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 02:05
Fanatics1.77I 56.50% NM 54.26%EV -4.18% E -2.36% K -5.43% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.74%EV -3.69% E -1.76% K -3.35% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 05:35
Betway1.77I 56.50% NM 54.26%EV -4.18% E -2.36% K -5.43% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.74%EV -3.69% E -1.76% K -3.35% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 04:50
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50% NM 54.26%EV -4.18% E -2.36% K -5.43% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.74%EV -3.69% E -1.76% K -3.35% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-09 04:50
SportsBet1.77I 56.50% NM 53.79%EV -4.18% E -2.36% K -5.43% G +0.000%2.06I 48.54% NM 46.21%EV -5.52% E -2.68% K -5.21% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-09 05:39
Ladbrokes (AU)1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -4.18% E -2.36% K -5.43% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 02:14
Neds1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -4.18% E -2.36% K -5.43% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 02:15
ReBet1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -4.18% E -2.36% K -5.43% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 05:39
LiveScore Bet1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -4.18% E -2.36% K -5.43% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 07:30
Virgin Bet1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -4.18% E -2.36% K -5.43% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 07:30
BetRivers1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -4.18% E -2.36% K -5.43% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 07:30
TABtouch1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -4.18% E -2.36% K -5.43% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 07:30
PlayUp1.77I 56.50% NM 53.66%EV -4.18% E -2.36% K -5.43% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.34%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 06:49
Bovada1.76I 56.82% NM 54.29%EV -4.72% E -2.68% K -6.21% G +0.000%2.09I 47.85% NM 45.71%EV -4.15% E -1.98% K -3.80% G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-09 07:19
Bet Right1.76I 56.82% NM 54.17%EV -4.72% E -2.68% K -6.21% G +0.000%2.08I 48.08% NM 45.83%EV -4.60% E -2.21% K -4.26% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 02:00
DraftKings1.76I 56.82% NM 54.17%EV -4.72% E -2.68% K -6.21% G +0.000%2.08I 48.08% NM 45.83%EV -4.60% E -2.21% K -4.26% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 03:20
Coolbet1.76I 56.82% NM 54.17%EV -4.72% E -2.68% K -6.21% G +0.000%2.08I 48.08% NM 45.83%EV -4.60% E -2.21% K -4.26% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-09 05:50
Betr (AU)1.76I 56.82% NM 53.81%EV -4.72% E -2.68% K -6.21% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.19%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 02:00
Winamax (DE)1.76I 56.82% NM 53.81%EV -4.72% E -2.68% K -6.21% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.19%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-09 04:50
Coral1.75I 57.14% NM 54.55%EV -5.26% E -3.01% K -7.02% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.45%EV -3.69% E -1.76% K -3.35% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 02:14
Ladbrokes (UK)1.75I 57.14% NM 54.55%EV -5.26% E -3.01% K -7.02% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.45%EV -3.69% E -1.76% K -3.35% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 02:14
TAB1.75I 57.14% NM 54.55%EV -5.26% E -3.01% K -7.02% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.45%EV -3.69% E -1.76% K -3.35% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-09 06:40
LeoVegas1.75I 57.14% NM 54.31%EV -5.26% E -3.01% K -7.02% G +0.000%2.08I 48.08% NM 45.69%EV -4.60% E -2.21% K -4.26% G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-09 04:50
Unibet (UK)1.75I 57.14% NM 54.19%EV -5.26% E -3.01% K -7.02% G +0.000%2.07I 48.31% NM 45.81%EV -5.06% E -2.45% K -4.73% G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-09 04:50
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -5.26% E -3.01% K -7.02% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 02:00
Betclic (FR)1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -5.26% E -3.01% K -7.02% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 04:50
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -5.26% E -3.01% K -7.02% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 04:50
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14% NM 53.95%EV -5.26% E -3.01% K -7.02% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 46.05%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-09 04:58
Grosvenor1.75I 57.14% NM 53.58%EV -5.26% E -3.01% K -7.02% G +0.000%2.02I 49.50% NM 46.42%EV -7.36% E -3.64% K -7.21% G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-09 07:30
BetMGM1.74I 57.47% NM 54.69%EV -5.80% E -3.33% K -7.84% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.31%EV -3.69% E -1.76% K -3.35% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-09 02:15
Fliff1.74I 57.47% NM 54.09%EV -5.80% E -3.33% K -7.84% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 45.91%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-09 07:19
888sport1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -6.34% E -3.67% K -8.69% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -3.69% E -1.76% K -3.35% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 02:00
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -6.34% E -3.67% K -8.69% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -3.69% E -1.76% K -3.35% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 02:00
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -6.34% E -3.67% K -8.69% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -3.69% E -1.76% K -3.35% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 02:00
William Hill1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -6.34% E -3.67% K -8.69% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -3.69% E -1.76% K -3.35% G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 04:55
Unibet (FR)1.73I 57.80% NM 54.23%EV -6.34% E -3.67% K -8.69% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 45.77%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-09 05:35
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80% NM 54.23%EV -6.34% E -3.67% K -8.69% G +0.000%2.05I 48.78% NM 45.77%EV -5.98% E -2.92% K -5.69% G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-09 04:55
Winamax (FR)1.70I 58.82% NM 54.05%EV -7.97% E -4.69% K -11.38% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 45.95%EV -8.27% E -4.14% K -8.27% G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-09 04:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerBaltimore Orioles (Local)Chicago Cubs (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
ProphetX1.86I 53.76% NM 53.62%2.15I 46.51% NM 46.38%0.3%2026-07-09 07:15
BetOpenly1.82I 54.95% NM 54.73%2.20I 45.45% NM 45.27%0.4%2026-07-09 07:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.83I 54.64% NM 53.67%2.12I 47.17% NM 46.33%1.8%2026-07-09 07:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.83I 54.64% NM 53.67%2.12I 47.17% NM 46.33%1.8%2026-07-09 07:05
Novig1.82I 54.95% NM 53.92%2.13I 46.95% NM 46.08%1.9%2026-07-09 07:30
Kalshi1.82I 54.95% NM 53.92%2.13I 46.95% NM 46.08%1.9%2026-07-09 04:45
Matchbook1.81I 55.25% NM 54.18%2.14I 46.73% NM 45.82%2.0%2026-07-09 07:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.82I 54.95% NM 53.81%2.12I 47.17% NM 46.19%2.1%2026-07-09 07:30
Smarkets1.69I 59.17% NM 53.83%1.97I 50.76% NM 46.17%9.9%2026-07-09 04:50