Baltimore Orioles v Chicago Cubs

Inicio: 2026-07-09 17:36 UTC

Final: Baltimore Orioles 3–2 Chicago Cubs

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

62 corredores (20 en el análisis )

54%

46%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Baltimore Orioles (Local)

Predicción 53.95%1.85momio equitativo

EV -1.27%

Ventaja -0.694%

Kelly -1.53%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

50.00%53.85%53.95%55.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Distribución de los momios

1.001.761.771.83100.00%56.89%56.50%54.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Chicago Cubs (Visitante)

Predicción 46.05%2.17momio equitativo

EV -0.994%

Ventaja -0.462%

Kelly -0.864%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

44.74%46.15%46.05%50.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Distribución de los momios

1.002.062.082.15100.00%48.59%48.19%46.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (62 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local ▼	Visitante	Margen	Actualizado
1xBet	1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -1.27%E -0.694%K -1.53%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	2.3%	2026-07-09 16:48
Unibet (UK)	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -1.27%E -0.694%K -1.53%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV -6.06%E -2.97%K -5.83%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-07-09 17:35
Pinnacle	1.81I 55.25%NM 54.18%EV -2.35%E -1.30%K -2.90%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 45.82%EV -1.45%E -0.680%K -1.28%G +0.000%	2.0%	2026-07-09 17:34
GTbets	1.81I 55.25%NM 54.06%EV -2.35%E -1.30%K -2.90%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 45.94%EV -1.91%E -0.899%K -1.69%G +0.000%	2.2%	2026-07-09 17:34
BetAnything	1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -2.35%E -1.30%K -2.90%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -2.38%E -1.12%K -2.12%G +0.000%	2.4%	2026-07-09 17:35
BetUS	1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -2.35%E -1.30%K -2.90%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -2.38%E -1.12%K -2.12%G +0.000%	2.4%	2026-07-09 17:24
BetOnline.ag	1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -2.35%E -1.30%K -2.90%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -2.38%E -1.12%K -2.12%G +0.000%	2.4%	2026-07-09 17:35
LowVig.ag	1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -2.35%E -1.30%K -2.90%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -2.38%E -1.12%K -2.12%G +0.000%	2.4%	2026-07-09 17:34
Everygame	1.80I 55.56%NM 54.43%EV -2.89%E -1.60%K -3.61%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 45.57%EV -0.994%E -0.462%K -0.864%G +0.000%	2.1%	2026-07-09 16:15
Bet Victor	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -2.89%E -1.60%K -3.61%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-07-09 14:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -2.89%E -1.60%K -3.61%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-07-09 10:40
Fanatics	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.89%E -1.60%K -3.61%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-09 17:29
PointsBet (AU)	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.89%E -1.60%K -3.61%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-09 14:55
Betway	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.89%E -1.60%K -3.61%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-09 17:35
MyBookie.ag	1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -3.97%E -2.23%K -5.09%G +0.000%	2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -3.76%E -1.80%K -3.45%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-07-09 16:55
Unibet (SE)	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -3.97%E -2.23%K -5.09%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.90%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-09 17:05
Unibet (NL)	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -3.97%E -2.23%K -5.09%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.90%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-09 17:05
Svenska Spel	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -3.97%E -2.23%K -5.09%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.90%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-09 17:05
Marathon Bet	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -3.97%E -2.23%K -5.09%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -6.06%E -2.97%K -5.83%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-09 16:45
FanDuel	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-09 10:40
Caesars	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-09 16:15
BetMGM	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-09 16:15
Hard Rock Bet	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-09 11:00
ReBet	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-09 16:30
theScore Bet	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-09 04:50
Bovada	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.90%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-09 17:34
DraftKings	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.90%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-07-09 17:09
LeoVegas (SE)	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -4.68%E -2.26%K -4.37%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-09 17:05
Unibet	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -4.68%E -2.26%K -4.37%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-09 17:04
Casumo	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -4.68%E -2.26%K -4.37%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-09 17:05
ATG (SE)	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -4.68%E -2.26%K -4.37%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-09 17:04
Bally Bet	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -4.68%E -2.26%K -4.37%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-09 17:05
betPARX	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -4.68%E -2.26%K -4.37%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-09 17:05
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-09 16:15
Neds	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-09 16:15
Fliff	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-09 17:34
PlayUp	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.51%E -2.55%K -5.85%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-09 14:54
Bet Right	1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.05%E -2.87%K -6.64%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.90%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-09 16:15
Coolbet	1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.05%E -2.87%K -6.64%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.90%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-07-09 16:50
NordicBet	1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.05%E -2.87%K -6.64%G +0.000%	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -4.68%E -2.26%K -4.37%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-09 17:24
LiveScore Bet	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.05%E -2.87%K -6.64%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.14%E -2.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-09 17:05
Virgin Bet	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.05%E -2.87%K -6.64%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.14%E -2.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-09 17:05
BetRivers	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.05%E -2.87%K -6.64%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.14%E -2.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-09 17:05
TABtouch	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -5.05%E -2.87%K -6.64%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.14%E -2.49%K -4.85%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-09 17:05
Winamax (DE)	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.05%E -2.87%K -6.64%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-09 16:29
Coral	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-09 16:15
Ladbrokes (UK)	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-09 16:15
TAB	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-09 17:23
SportsBet	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.90%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-09 10:40
LeoVegas	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.22%E -2.03%K -3.90%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-09 16:29
888sport	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-09 15:15
888sport (SE)	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-09 15:15
Mr Green (SE)	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-09 15:15
Unibet (FR)	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.59%E -3.19%K -7.45%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-09 17:24
Winamax (FR)	1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.13%E -3.52%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-09 16:29
William Hill	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.67%E -3.85%K -9.13%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-09 17:05
Paddy Power	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.67%E -3.85%K -9.13%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-09 15:09
BoyleSports	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.67%E -3.85%K -9.13%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.60%E -2.73%K -5.33%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-09 16:30
Grosvenor	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.87%EV -6.67%E -3.85%K -9.13%G +0.000%	2.02I 49.50%NM 46.13%EV -6.98%E -3.46%K -6.84%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-09 17:05
Betclic (FR)	1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.20%E -4.19%K -10.01%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -7.90%E -3.95%K -7.90%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-07-09 17:09
Tipico (DE)	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -8.28%E -4.87%K -11.83%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.30%E -1.57%K -3.00%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-09 16:35
Betsson	1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -46.05%E -46.05%K +0.000%G +0.000%	1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -53.95%E -53.95%K +0.000%G +0.000%	100.0%	2026-07-09 17:35

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
BetOpenly	1.89I 52.91%NM 53.33%	2.16I 46.30%NM 46.67%	-0.8%	2026-07-09 17:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.23%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.77%	0.2%	2026-07-09 17:35
Novig	1.87I 53.48%NM 53.25%	2.13I 46.95%NM 46.75%	0.4%	2026-07-09 17:34
ProphetX	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.11%	2.17I 46.08%NM 45.89%	0.4%	2026-07-09 17:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%	2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%	0.6%	2026-07-09 17:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%	2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%	0.6%	2026-07-09 17:35
Matchbook	1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%	2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%	0.6%	2026-07-09 17:10
Polymarket	1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%	2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%	1.0%	2026-07-09 16:34
Kalshi	1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%	2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%	1.0%	2026-07-09 11:50
Smarkets	1.82I 54.95%NM 53.81%	2.12I 47.17%NM 46.19%	2.1%	2026-07-09 16:55