Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Chiefs v Denver Broncos

2026-09-15 00:15 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

49 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Chiefs (Local)

Prediction 56.83%1.76fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -3.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.61%56.82%56.77%58.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.681.681.7264.94%59.51%59.52%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Denver Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 43.17%2.32fair odd
EV -0.282%
Edge -0.122%
Kelly -0.215%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.96%43.18%43.23%44.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.202.202.3151.55%45.48%45.45%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Kansas City Chiefs (Local): 56.83%; Denver Broncos (Visit): 43.17%. For Denver Broncos (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.31, with an expected value of -0.282%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.57%EV -2.25%E -1.31%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.43%EV -3.30%E -1.47%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-07 03:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.60%EV -2.82%E -1.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.40%EV -3.74%E -1.68%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-07 21:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.60%EV -2.82%E -1.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.40%EV -3.74%E -1.68%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-07 20:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.60%EV -2.82%E -1.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.40%EV -3.74%E -1.68%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-07 20:59
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.82%E -1.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-25 08:04
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.82%E -1.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-28 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -2.82%E -1.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -6.33%E -2.92%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-07 21:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -2.82%E -1.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -6.33%E -2.92%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-07 21:00
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -2.82%E -1.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -6.76%E -3.13%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 20:59
Bally Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -2.82%E -1.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -6.76%E -3.13%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 21:00
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -2.82%E -1.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -6.76%E -3.13%K -5.83%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 21:04
Caesars🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.39%E -1.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.17%E -1.88%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-01 03:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.39%E -1.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.17%E -1.88%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-31 11:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.39%E -1.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.17%E -1.88%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-31 11:39
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.39%E -1.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.19%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 14:30
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.39%E -1.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.19%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 23:10
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.39%E -1.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.19%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 21:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.61%EV -3.39%E -1.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.39%EV -8.05%E -3.78%K -7.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-07 08:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.95%E -2.34%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.87%E -1.28%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-06 14:00
GTbets🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.95%E -2.34%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.87%E -1.28%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 08:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.95%E -2.34%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.87%E -1.28%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-07 10:04
Everygame🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.95%E -2.34%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.87%E -1.28%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-17 11:04
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.95%E -2.34%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.17%E -1.88%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-07 08:50
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.95%E -2.34%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-31 16:50
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.52%E -2.69%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -2.87%E -1.28%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-07 20:25
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.52%E -2.69%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.30%E -1.47%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-07 11:29
ReBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -4.52%E -2.69%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -4.60%E -2.08%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-29 14:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.52%E -2.69%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 08:50
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.52%E -2.69%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 08:50
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.52%E -2.69%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 11:30
Dabble (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.52%E -2.69%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 00:30
Pinnacle🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.04%EV -5.09%E -3.05%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.96%EV -0.282%E -0.122%K -0.215%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-07 01:55
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.09%E -3.05%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.714%E -0.310%K -0.549%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-18 04:30
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -5.09%E -3.05%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.714%E -0.310%K -0.549%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-08 00:14
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.09%E -3.05%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.87%E -1.28%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-07 01:39
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.09%E -3.05%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.87%E -1.28%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-07 20:25
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.09%E -3.05%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 04:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.09%E -3.05%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-25 08:09
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.09%E -3.05%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 16:04
TAB🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.09%E -3.05%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 20:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.09%E -3.05%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 15:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -5.66%E -3.41%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -5.89%E -2.70%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 14:34
Codere (IT)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -5.66%E -3.41%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -5.89%E -2.70%K -4.99%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-07 22:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.23%E -3.77%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.03%E -2.29%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 08:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.23%E -3.77%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.19%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-25 08:07
NordicBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.76%EV -7.36%E -4.52%K -11.69%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.24%EV -7.62%E -3.56%K -6.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-07 22:05
Betsson🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.76%EV -7.36%E -4.52%K -11.69%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.24%EV -7.62%E -3.56%K -6.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-07 22:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -9.07%E -5.67%K -15.11%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.35%E -4.45%K -8.50%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 11:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 55.75%EV -12.48%E -8.10%K -23.11%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 44.25%EV -16.25%E -8.38%K -17.29%G +0.000%16.5%2026-09-07 20:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-09-07 15:35
Polymarket1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-09-02 06:00
Novig1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-09-08 00:25
ProphetX1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64%1.4%2026-09-08 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72%2.1%2026-09-08 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72%2.1%2026-09-08 00:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72%2.1%2026-09-08 00:20
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 57.29%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.71%2.7%2026-09-08 00:25
Smarkets1.73I 57.80%NM 55.98%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%3.3%2026-09-08 00:55