The School of Odds

Kansas City Chiefs v Denver Broncos

2026-09-15 00:15 — NFL

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (16 in analysis)

Option 1: Kansas City Chiefs (Local)

Odds
1.4768.03%Min
1.6560.44%Mean
1.6560.61%Median
1.7158.48%Max
Consensus probabilities
55.84%1.791Min
59.55%1.679Max
57.42%1.742Mean
57.33%1.744Median
57.32%1.745IQM
57.43%1.741Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.71 under the IQM model: 57.32%

EV -1.99%Edge -1.16%Kelly -2.80%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Denver Broncos (Visit)

Odds
2.0050.00%Min
2.2444.67%Mean
2.2544.44%Median
2.3742.19%Max
Consensus probabilities
40.45%2.472Min
44.16%2.265Max
42.58%2.348Mean
42.67%2.343Median
42.68%2.343IQM
42.57%2.349Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.37 under the IQM model: 42.68%

EV +1.16%Edge +0.488%Kelly +0.844%Growth +0.010%

Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)

BookmakerKansas City Chiefs (Local)Denver Broncos (Visit) ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)1.61I 62.11% NM 59.55%EV -7.72% E -4.79% K -12.65% G +0.000%2.37I 42.19% NM 40.45%EV +1.16% E +0.488% K +0.844% G +0.010%4.3%2026-05-16 20:30
Coral1.61I 62.11% NM 59.55%EV -7.72% E -4.79% K -12.65% G +0.000%2.37I 42.19% NM 40.45%EV +1.16% E +0.488% K +0.844% G +0.010%4.3%2026-05-16 20:29
BetMGM1.62I 61.73% NM 59.19%EV -7.14% E -4.41% K -11.52% G +0.000%2.35I 42.55% NM 40.81%EV +0.303% E +0.129% K +0.224% G +0.001%4.3%2026-05-16 20:30
Pinnacle1.66I 60.24% NM 58.40%EV -4.85% E -2.92% K -7.35% G +0.000%2.33I 42.92% NM 41.60%EV -0.551% E -0.236% K -0.414% G +0.000%3.2%2026-06-23 23:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -7.14% E -4.41% K -11.52% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -1.83% E -0.796% K -1.41% G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 20:31
Neds1.62I 61.73% NM 58.67%EV -7.14% E -4.41% K -11.52% G +0.000%2.30I 43.48% NM 41.33%EV -1.83% E -0.796% K -1.41% G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 20:30
Unibet (SE)1.65I 60.61% NM 58.02%EV -5.43% E -3.29% K -8.35% G +0.000%2.28I 43.86% NM 41.98%EV -2.68% E -1.18% K -2.10% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.65I 60.61% NM 58.02%EV -5.43% E -3.29% K -8.35% G +0.000%2.28I 43.86% NM 41.98%EV -2.68% E -1.18% K -2.10% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:10
Unibet (NL)1.65I 60.61% NM 58.02%EV -5.43% E -3.29% K -8.35% G +0.000%2.28I 43.86% NM 41.98%EV -2.68% E -1.18% K -2.10% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:10
Unibet1.65I 60.61% NM 58.02%EV -5.43% E -3.29% K -8.35% G +0.000%2.28I 43.86% NM 41.98%EV -2.68% E -1.18% K -2.10% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:10
ATG (SE)1.65I 60.61% NM 58.02%EV -5.43% E -3.29% K -8.35% G +0.000%2.28I 43.86% NM 41.98%EV -2.68% E -1.18% K -2.10% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:10
Svenska Spel1.65I 60.61% NM 58.02%EV -5.43% E -3.29% K -8.35% G +0.000%2.28I 43.86% NM 41.98%EV -2.68% E -1.18% K -2.10% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:10
Bally Bet1.65I 60.61% NM 58.02%EV -5.43% E -3.29% K -8.35% G +0.000%2.28I 43.86% NM 41.98%EV -2.68% E -1.18% K -2.10% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:10
betPARX1.65I 60.61% NM 58.02%EV -5.43% E -3.29% K -8.35% G +0.000%2.28I 43.86% NM 41.98%EV -2.68% E -1.18% K -2.10% G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:19
PointsBet (AU)1.69I 59.17% NM 57.11%EV -3.13% E -1.85% K -4.54% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 42.89%EV -3.97% E -1.76% K -3.17% G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-29 23:00
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17% NM 57.11%EV -3.13% E -1.85% K -4.54% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 42.89%EV -3.97% E -1.76% K -3.17% G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-14 13:50
Bovada1.69I 59.17% NM 57.11%EV -3.13% E -1.85% K -4.54% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 42.89%EV -3.97% E -1.76% K -3.17% G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-30 10:09
GTbets1.69I 59.17% NM 57.11%EV -3.13% E -1.85% K -4.54% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 42.89%EV -3.97% E -1.76% K -3.17% G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-30 10:00
Hard Rock Bet1.69I 59.17% NM 57.11%EV -3.13% E -1.85% K -4.54% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 42.89%EV -3.97% E -1.76% K -3.17% G +0.000%3.6%2026-06-30 08:38
Caesars1.67I 59.88% NM 57.40%EV -4.28% E -2.56% K -6.39% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 42.60%EV -3.97% E -1.76% K -3.17% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-03 17:54
Fanatics1.67I 59.88% NM 57.40%EV -4.28% E -2.56% K -6.39% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 42.60%EV -3.97% E -1.76% K -3.17% G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-29 23:00
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61% NM 57.69%EV -5.43% E -3.29% K -8.35% G +0.000%2.25I 44.44% NM 42.31%EV -3.97% E -1.76% K -3.17% G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-29 22:59
DraftKings1.68I 59.52% NM 57.14%EV -3.71% E -2.21% K -5.45% G +0.000%2.24I 44.64% NM 42.86%EV -4.39% E -1.96% K -3.54% G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-30 09:59
FanDuel1.68I 59.52% NM 57.14%EV -3.71% E -2.21% K -5.45% G +0.000%2.24I 44.64% NM 42.86%EV -4.39% E -1.96% K -3.54% G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-29 23:00
SportsBet1.66I 60.24% NM 57.33%EV -4.85% E -2.92% K -7.35% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 42.67%EV -4.82% E -2.16% K -3.92% G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-29 22:59
ReBet1.66I 60.24% NM 57.33%EV -4.85% E -2.92% K -7.35% G +0.000%2.23I 44.84% NM 42.67%EV -4.82% E -2.16% K -3.92% G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-30 10:09
Coolbet1.64I 60.98% NM 57.51%EV -6.00% E -3.66% K -9.37% G +0.000%2.22I 45.05% NM 42.49%EV -5.25% E -2.36% K -4.30% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-02 20:26
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61% NM 57.25%EV -5.43% E -3.29% K -8.35% G +0.000%2.21I 45.25% NM 42.75%EV -5.67% E -2.57% K -4.69% G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-19 19:40
NordicBet1.63I 61.35% NM 57.55%EV -6.57% E -4.03% K -10.43% G +0.000%2.21I 45.25% NM 42.45%EV -5.67% E -2.57% K -4.69% G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-02 19:15
Betsson1.63I 61.35% NM 57.55%EV -6.57% E -4.03% K -10.43% G +0.000%2.21I 45.25% NM 42.45%EV -5.67% E -2.57% K -4.69% G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-02 19:15
LowVig.ag1.71I 58.48% NM 56.27%EV -1.99% E -1.16% K -2.80% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.73%EV -6.10% E -2.77% K -5.08% G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-19 18:40
BetOnline.ag1.71I 58.48% NM 56.27%EV -1.99% E -1.16% K -2.80% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.73%EV -6.10% E -2.77% K -5.08% G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-19 18:50
BetUS1.71I 58.48% NM 56.27%EV -1.99% E -1.16% K -2.80% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.73%EV -6.10% E -2.77% K -5.08% G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-19 18:40
TAB1.68I 59.52% NM 56.70%EV -3.71% E -2.21% K -5.45% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.30%EV -6.10% E -2.77% K -5.08% G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-15 05:40
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.28% E -2.56% K -6.39% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -6.10% E -2.77% K -5.08% G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-29 22:59
William Hill1.67I 59.88% NM 56.85%EV -4.28% E -2.56% K -6.39% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 43.15%EV -6.10% E -2.77% K -5.08% G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 21:20
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61% NM 57.14%EV -5.43% E -3.29% K -8.35% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 42.86%EV -6.10% E -2.77% K -5.08% G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-16 20:30
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61% NM 57.14%EV -5.43% E -3.29% K -8.35% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 42.86%EV -6.10% E -2.77% K -5.08% G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-15 19:04
Betclic (FR)1.62I 61.73% NM 57.59%EV -7.14% E -4.41% K -11.52% G +0.000%2.20I 45.45% NM 42.41%EV -6.10% E -2.77% K -5.08% G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-16 20:28
BetRivers1.65I 60.61% NM 56.81%EV -5.43% E -3.29% K -8.35% G +0.000%2.17I 46.08% NM 43.19%EV -7.38% E -3.40% K -6.31% G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-10 11:10
Bet Right1.70I 58.82% NM 55.84%EV -2.56% E -1.51% K -3.66% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 44.16%EV -8.23% E -3.83% K -7.16% G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-30 10:09
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73% NM 57.03%EV -7.14% E -4.41% K -11.52% G +0.000%2.15I 46.51% NM 42.97%EV -8.23% E -3.83% K -7.16% G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-02 10:14
MyBookie.ag1.68I 59.52% NM 56.02%EV -3.71% E -2.21% K -5.45% G +0.000%2.14I 46.73% NM 43.98%EV -8.66% E -4.05% K -7.60% G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-16 15:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -0.840% E -0.486% K -1.15% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -10.37% E -4.94% K -9.43% G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-12 22:05
NetBet (FR)1.47I 68.03% NM 57.64%EV -15.74% E -10.71% K -33.49% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 42.36%EV -14.64% E -7.32% K -14.64% G +0.000%18.0%2026-07-03 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerKansas City Chiefs (Local)Denver Broncos (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%2.08I 48.08%7.2%2026-07-04 09:05
Smarkets1.62I 61.73%2.16I 46.30%8.0%2026-06-30 10:09