Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Chiefs v Denver Broncos

2026-09-15 00:15 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Chiefs (Local)

Prediction 56.92%1.76fair odd
EV +1.31%
Edge +0.738%
Kelly +1.68%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.03%56.67%56.85%57.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.681.691.7865.36%59.40%59.35%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Denver Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 43.08%2.32fair odd
EV -0.911%
Edge -0.396%
Kelly -0.701%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.07%43.33%43.15%46.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.192.202.3050.00%45.68%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Kansas City Chiefs (Local): 56.92%; Denver Broncos (Visit): 43.08%. For Kansas City Chiefs (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 1.78, producing a positive expected value of +1.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.03%EV +1.31%E +0.738%K +1.68%G +0.022%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.97%EV -13.40%E -6.67%K -13.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 19:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.98%EV -1.53%E -0.886%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%EV -5.22%E -2.37%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-02 21:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.98%EV -1.53%E -0.886%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%EV -5.22%E -2.37%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-02 21:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.98%EV -1.53%E -0.886%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%EV -5.22%E -2.37%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-02 21:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -1.53%E -0.886%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -7.37%E -3.43%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 21:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -1.53%E -0.886%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -7.37%E -3.43%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 21:20
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -1.53%E -0.886%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -7.80%E -3.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:19
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -1.53%E -0.886%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -7.80%E -3.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:20
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -1.53%E -0.886%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -7.80%E -3.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -1.53%E -0.886%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -7.80%E -3.65%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-02 21:20
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.10%E -1.22%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.67%E -4.09%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 21:20
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.67%E -1.56%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.22%E -2.37%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-25 08:04
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.67%E -1.56%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.22%E -2.37%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-28 19:25
Caesars🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.24%E -1.91%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.36%E -1.96%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-01 03:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.24%E -1.91%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.36%E -1.96%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-31 11:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.24%E -1.91%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.36%E -1.96%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-31 11:39
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.24%E -1.91%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.37%E -3.43%K -6.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 14:30
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.24%E -1.91%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.37%E -3.43%K -6.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 23:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.81%E -2.25%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.06%E -1.36%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-01 23:05
GTbets🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.81%E -2.25%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.06%E -1.36%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 08:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.81%E -2.25%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.06%E -1.36%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-29 09:00
Everygame🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.81%E -2.25%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.06%E -1.36%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-17 11:04
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.81%E -2.25%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.06%E -1.36%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-28 22:38
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.81%E -2.25%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.36%E -1.96%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 04:00
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.81%E -2.25%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -5.22%E -2.37%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-31 16:50
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.68%EV -4.38%E -2.61%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.32%EV -1.34%E -0.586%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-21 18:10
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.38%E -2.61%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.50%E -1.56%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-24 22:43
ReBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -4.38%E -2.61%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -4.79%E -2.17%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-29 14:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.38%E -2.61%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.22%E -2.37%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 16:50
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.38%E -2.61%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.22%E -2.37%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-31 16:50
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.38%E -2.61%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.22%E -2.37%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-24 22:44
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.95%E -2.96%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -0.911%E -0.396%K -0.701%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-18 04:30
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.95%E -2.96%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.06%E -1.36%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-01 23:05
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.95%E -2.96%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.06%E -1.36%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 13:10
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -4.95%E -2.96%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.79%E -2.17%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 04:03
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.95%E -2.96%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.22%E -2.37%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 04:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.95%E -2.96%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.22%E -2.37%K -4.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-25 08:09
Dabble (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.95%E -2.96%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.37%E -3.43%K -6.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 00:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -5.52%E -3.32%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -6.08%E -2.79%K -5.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 14:34
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.09%E -3.69%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.06%E -1.36%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-14 02:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.09%E -3.69%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.22%E -2.37%K -4.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 08:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.09%E -3.69%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.37%E -3.43%K -6.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-25 08:07
LeoVegas🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -6.09%E -3.69%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -8.67%E -4.09%K -7.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-03 02:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.09%E -3.69%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.53%E -4.54%K -8.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-02 15:30
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.09%E -3.69%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.53%E -4.54%K -8.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-02 15:28
Betr (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -6.65%E -4.06%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -3.06%E -1.36%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 13:54
Coolbet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -6.65%E -4.06%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -4.36%E -1.96%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 13:54
NordicBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%EV -8.36%E -5.19%K -13.71%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -6.08%E -2.79%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 13:54
Betsson🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%EV -8.36%E -5.19%K -13.71%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%EV -6.08%E -2.79%K -5.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 13:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.66%EV -12.92%E -8.44%K -24.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.34%EV -13.84%E -6.92%K -13.84%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-30 12:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-09-03 15:35
Polymarket1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.2%2026-09-02 06:00
Novig1.74I 57.47%NM 56.61%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.39%1.5%2026-09-03 17:25
ProphetX1.75I 57.14%NM 56.03%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.97%2.0%2026-09-03 11:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.74%7.2%2026-09-02 18:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.74%7.2%2026-09-02 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.74%7.2%2026-09-02 18:35
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 55.04%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.96%10.1%2026-09-03 21:10
Arbitrage (2 combinations) +0.34%Marathon Bet 1.78 (56.4%) / Bovada 2.30 (43.6%)Show all 2 combinations
Kansas City Chiefs (Local)Denver Broncos (Visit)Margin
Marathon Bet🎯 1.78 (56.4%)Bovada🎯 2.30 (43.6%)+0.343%
Marathon Bet🎯 1.78 (56.3%)Pinnacle🎯 2.29 (43.7%)+0.152%