The School of Odds

Kansas City Chiefs v Denver Broncos

2026-09-15 00:15 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Kansas City Chiefs (Local)

Prediction 57.54%1.74fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -4.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.70%57.71%57.59%59.55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.451.641.651.6969%61%61%59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Denver Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 42.46%2.36fair odd
EV +0.633%
Edge +0.267%
Kelly +0.462%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.45%42.29%42.41%43.30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.022.252.252.3750%44%44%42%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -7.36%E -4.57%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV +0.633%E +0.267%K +0.462%G +0.003%4.3%2026-05-16 20:30
Coral1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -7.36%E -4.57%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV +0.633%E +0.267%K +0.462%G +0.003%4.3%2026-05-16 20:29
DraftKings1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV +0.209%E +0.088%K +0.153%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-22 08:20
BetMGM1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -0.216%E -0.092%K -0.160%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-16 20:30
PointsBet (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.91%E -2.34%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.34%E -1.02%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-23 03:29
Bovada1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.91%E -2.34%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.34%E -1.02%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-22 08:19
GTbets1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.91%E -2.34%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.34%E -1.02%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-22 08:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.34%E -1.02%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 20:31
Neds1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.34%E -1.02%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 20:30
Unibet (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.06%E -3.07%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.19%E -1.40%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.06%E -3.07%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.19%E -1.40%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:10
Unibet (NL)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.06%E -3.07%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.19%E -1.40%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:10
Unibet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.06%E -3.07%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.19%E -1.40%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:10
ATG (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.06%E -3.07%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.19%E -1.40%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:10
Svenska Spel1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.06%E -3.07%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.19%E -1.40%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:10
Bally Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.06%E -3.07%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.19%E -1.40%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:10
betPARX1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -5.06%E -3.07%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -3.19%E -1.40%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-10 11:19
Caesars1.66I 60.24%NM 57.76%EV -4.49%E -2.70%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.24%EV -3.61%E -1.59%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-22 08:20
ReBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -5.06%E -3.07%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -4.04%E -1.79%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-22 08:20
Coolbet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -4.04%E -1.79%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-22 08:20
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.76%E -1.63%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.46%E -1.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-14 13:50
Hard Rock Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.76%E -1.63%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.46%E -1.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-24 10:05
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.76%E -1.63%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.46%E -1.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 16:53
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.76%E -1.63%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.46%E -1.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 16:54
BetUS1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.76%E -1.63%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.46%E -1.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 16:54
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.91%E -2.34%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.46%E -1.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-23 03:29
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.06%E -3.07%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.46%E -1.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-14 02:29
Unibet (UK)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.64%E -3.44%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.46%E -1.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-22 08:20
Betr (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.64%E -3.44%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.46%E -1.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-21 16:20
FanDuel1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -3.33%E -1.99%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -4.89%E -2.18%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-29 23:00
MyBookie.ag1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%EV -6.21%E -3.81%K -9.86%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12%EV -4.89%E -2.18%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-21 16:40
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.49%E -2.70%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.31%E -2.38%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-29 22:59
Marathon Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -5.06%E -3.07%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -6.16%E -2.79%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-19 19:40
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.33%E -1.99%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -6.59%E -2.99%K -5.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-21 02:10
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.91%E -2.34%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.59%E -2.99%K -5.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-29 22:59
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.91%E -2.34%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.59%E -2.99%K -5.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 21:20
Bet Right1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.91%E -2.34%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.59%E -2.99%K -5.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 16:20
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.06%E -3.07%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.59%E -2.99%K -5.49%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-16 20:30
Betclic (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.79%E -4.19%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.59%E -2.99%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-17 11:50
NordicBet1.60I 62.50%NM 57.78%EV -7.94%E -4.96%K -13.23%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.22%EV -7.01%E -3.20%K -5.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-22 08:20
Betsson1.60I 62.50%NM 57.78%EV -7.94%E -4.96%K -13.23%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.22%EV -7.01%E -3.20%K -5.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-22 08:20
LeoVegas1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%EV -7.94%E -4.96%K -13.23%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -7.43%E -3.41%K -6.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-23 10:29
BetRivers1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -5.06%E -3.07%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -7.86%E -3.62%K -6.72%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-10 11:10
NetBet (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 58.21%EV -16.57%E -11.43%K -36.82%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 41.79%EV -14.23%E -7.04%K -13.95%G +0.000%18.5%2026-07-22 19:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 57.32%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.68%3.2%2026-07-24 18:55
Smarkets1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%8.4%2026-07-22 08:20