Language:English
Kansas City Chiefs v Denver Broncos
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kansas City Chiefs (Local)
Prediction 53.92%1.85fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.721%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%53.79%53.97%54.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.761.771.8359.52%56.66%56.50%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Denver Broncos (Visit)
Prediction 46.08%2.17fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -0.873%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.10%46.21%46.03%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.052.052.1351.81%48.79%48.78%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas City Chiefs (Local): 53.92%; Denver Broncos (Visit): 46.08%. For Kansas City Chiefs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.83, with an expected value of -1.32%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -1.32%E -0.721%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -7.39%E -3.68%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-15 00:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -1.32%E -0.721%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -1.86%E -1.02%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.83%EV -2.40%E -1.32%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 46.17%EV -2.78%E -1.32%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -2.40%E -1.32%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -6.47%E -3.19%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-15 00:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.96%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 46.04%EV -2.78%E -1.32%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-15 00:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-14 23:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-15 00:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-14 23:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.93%E -3.43%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-15 00:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-14 23:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-14 23:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-14 23:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.94%E -1.63%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-14 23:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -3.48%E -1.94%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.23%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-14 23:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -4.01%E -2.26%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -4.16%E -2.00%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -4.01%E -2.26%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -5.08%E -2.47%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-15 00:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.24%E -1.54%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-14 20:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.24%E -1.54%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-14 23:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.24%E -1.54%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-14 16:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.24%E -1.54%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-15 00:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -5.08%E -2.47%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-15 00:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-14 20:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -6.93%E -3.43%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-15 00:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.55%E -2.57%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-14 20:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -5.09%E -2.89%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -2.32%E -1.09%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-14 23:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -5.09%E -2.89%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-14 23:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -5.63%E -3.22%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -1.86%E -0.873%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-14 21:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.63%E -3.22%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.24%E -1.54%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-14 21:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.63%E -3.22%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.24%E -1.54%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-14 21:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -5.63%E -3.22%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -4.62%E -2.23%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-14 23:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -5.63%E -3.22%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -4.62%E -2.23%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-14 23:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.83%EV -5.63%E -3.22%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%EV -6.01%E -2.94%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.24%E -1.54%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.24%E -1.54%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-14 23:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.24%E -1.54%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -4.16%E -2.00%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -4.16%E -2.00%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -4.16%E -2.00%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -4.16%E -2.00%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -4.16%E -2.00%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.45%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.55%EV -4.16%E -2.00%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -6.17%E -3.55%K -8.34%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.28%EV -6.93%E -3.43%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.71%E -3.88%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.24%E -1.54%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-14 17:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.71%E -3.88%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-15 00:14 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.71%E -3.88%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.54%E -2.70%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-15 00:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.71%E -3.88%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.71%E -3.88%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.79%E -4.56%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.41%EV -7.79%E -4.56%K -10.97%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.59%EV -9.69%E -4.94%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.33%E -4.90%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 23:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -8.33%E -4.90%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.85%E -3.92%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 23:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.46%EV -9.41%E -5.60%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.54%EV -11.07%E -5.74%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.98% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 46.02% | 0.1% | 2026-09-14 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50% | 0.5% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50% | 0.5% | 2026-09-15 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50% | 0.5% | 2026-09-15 00:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50% | 0.5% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.75% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 46.25% | 0.6% | 2026-09-14 23:42 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48% | 1.0% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48% | 1.0% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.66% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.34% | 1.6% | 2026-09-15 00:13 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56% | 2.3% | 2026-09-15 00:15 |