Language:English
Naomi Osaka v Elise Mertens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Naomi Osaka (Local)
Prediction 70.98%1.41fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -2.55%
Kelly -9.64%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.44%70.99%70.96%72.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.341.341.3676.92%74.84%74.63%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Elise Mertens (Visit)
Prediction 29.02%3.45fair odd
EV +0.421%
Edge +0.122%
Kelly +0.171%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.66%29.01%29.04%30.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.023.263.273.4633.11%30.63%30.53%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Naomi Osaka (Local): 70.98%; Elise Mertens (Visit): 29.02%. For Elise Mertens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.421%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.08%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.92%EV +0.421%E +0.122%K +0.171%G +0.001% | 3.5% | 2026-09-04 11:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.08%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.92%EV +0.421%E +0.122%K +0.171%G +0.001% | 3.5% | 2026-09-04 11:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57%EV -1.32%E -0.388%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-04 08:06 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.73%E -5.95%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -1.32%E -0.388%K -0.550%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 20:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.37%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.63%EV -1.61%E -0.475%K -0.674%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-04 07:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.64%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.36%EV -2.48%E -0.739%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 20:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -4.18%E -3.10%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -2.77%E -0.827%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.37%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.63%EV -3.06%E -0.917%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.15%EV -4.18%E -3.10%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.85%EV -3.35%E -1.01%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 14:31 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.18%E -3.10%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 11:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -7.02%E -5.36%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 13:56 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -7.73%E -5.95%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -4.22%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 07:01 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-04 06:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-04 08:38 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.18%E -3.10%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 07:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 10:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 06:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 08:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.67%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.05%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.95%EV -5.96%E -1.84%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.05%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.95%EV -5.96%E -1.84%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 07:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.61%EV -4.89%E -3.65%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.39%EV -6.54%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.23%EV -6.54%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 07:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-04 14:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-04 08:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.18%E -3.10%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.18%E -3.10%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 10:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 07:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 07:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 07:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 06:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.31%E -4.78%K -19.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.13%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -4.18%E -3.10%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -8.58%E -2.72%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 07:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.03%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 08:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.60%E -4.21%K -16.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.03%E -3.23%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.44%EV -3.47%E -2.55%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.56%EV -10.32%E -3.34%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 07:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.91%EV -7.73%E -5.95%K -25.77%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.09%EV -12.35%E -4.09%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-04 07:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 10:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 10:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 10:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 2.0% | 2026-09-04 11:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42% | 2.0% | 2026-09-04 11:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.56% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.44% | 2.2% | 2026-09-04 03:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.16% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84% | 2.6% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |