Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marta Kostyuk v Ekaterina Alexandrova

2026-09-04 15:00 UTC — WTA US Open

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marta Kostyuk (Local)

Prediction 68.64%1.46fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -2.79%
Kelly -9.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.40%68.65%68.65%70.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.371.371.4075.76%73.09%72.99%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ekaterina Alexandrova (Visit)

Prediction 31.36%3.19fair odd
EV +0.343%
Edge +0.107%
Kelly +0.156%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.20%31.35%31.35%32.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.003.003.2036.36%33.31%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Marta Kostyuk (Local): 68.64%; Ekaterina Alexandrova (Visit): 31.36%. For Ekaterina Alexandrova (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.20, producing a positive expected value of +0.343%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -7.33%E -5.43%K -20.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +0.343%E +0.107%K +0.156%G +0.001%5.3%2026-09-03 05:35
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -9.39%E -7.11%K -29.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV +0.343%E +0.107%K +0.156%G +0.001%7.0%2026-09-03 02:30
Coolbet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -3.90%E -2.79%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -1.22%E -0.389%K -0.570%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-03 06:55
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.27%E -3.82%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -1.22%E -0.389%K -0.570%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 02:30
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -4.59%E -3.30%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -2.79%E -0.901%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 03:30
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.27%E -3.82%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.79%E -0.901%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 02:35
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.65%E -4.89%K -18.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.79%E -0.901%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 02:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.33%E -5.43%K -20.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.79%E -0.901%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 02:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.07%EV -5.96%E -4.35%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.93%EV -4.05%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 03:25
GTbets🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -4.59%E -3.30%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV -4.99%E -1.65%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 01:51
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.56%EV -5.27%E -3.82%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.44%EV -5.61%E -1.87%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 05:15
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.90%E -2.79%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 05:34
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.90%E -2.79%K -9.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 03:55
Bet Right🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.59%E -3.30%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 07:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.27%E -3.82%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 01:40
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.27%E -3.82%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 02:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.27%E -3.82%K -13.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 02:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.96%E -4.35%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 06:55
Fanatics🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.96%E -4.35%K -16.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 01:30
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.65%E -4.89%K -18.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 01:36
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.65%E -4.89%K -18.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 01:30
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.65%E -4.89%K -18.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 02:30
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.65%E -4.89%K -18.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 02:34
TAB🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.65%E -4.89%K -18.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 02:29
Caesars🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.65%E -4.89%K -18.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.93%E -1.98%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 04:36
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -5.96%E -4.35%K -16.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.50%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 01:30
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.90%E -2.79%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.06%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 01:36
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.65%E -4.89%K -18.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -9.06%E -3.13%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 05:20
ReBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.79%EV -8.02%E -5.98%K -23.58%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.21%EV -11.57%E -4.10%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-03 01:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.63%EV -8.02%E -5.98%K -23.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.37%EV -12.20%E -4.36%K -6.78%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-03 01:33
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.40%EV -8.71%E -6.55%K -26.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.60%EV -13.77%E -5.01%K -7.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 01:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.40%EV -8.71%E -6.55%K -26.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.60%EV -13.77%E -5.01%K -7.87%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-03 02:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%3.9%2026-09-03 05:15
Kalshi1.37I 72.99%NM 69.49%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.51%5.0%2026-09-03 07:30
Smarkets1.32I 75.76%NM 67.33%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.67%12.5%2026-09-03 01:30
Matchbook1.17I 85.47%NM 55.85%1.48I 67.57%NM 44.15%53.0%2026-09-03 06:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 55.00%1.43I 69.93%NM 45.00%55.4%2026-09-03 06:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.17I 85.47%NM 55.00%1.43I 69.93%NM 45.00%55.4%2026-09-03 06:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 55.00%1.43I 69.93%NM 45.00%55.4%2026-09-03 06:40
ProphetX1.07I 93.46%NM 51.14%1.12I 89.29%NM 48.86%82.7%2026-09-03 04:40