Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Marta Kostyuk v Ekaterina Alexandrova

2026-09-04 15:00 UTC — WTA US Open

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (16 en el análisis )

69%

31%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Marta Kostyuk (Local)

Predicción 68.51%1.46momio equitativo

EV -3.39%

Ventaja -2.41%

Kelly -8.28%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.41

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

67.06%68.54%68.60%70.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.321.381.391.4175.76%72.31%71.94%70.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ekaterina Alexandrova (Visitante)

Predicción 31.49%3.18momio equitativo

EV +0.753%

Ventaja +0.235%

Kelly +0.342%

Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

29.20%31.46%31.40%32.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.752.963.003.2036.36%33.75%33.33%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Marta Kostyuk (Local): 68.51%; Ekaterina Alexandrova (Visitante): 31.49%. Para Ekaterina Alexandrova (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.18. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.20, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.753%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local	Visitante ▼	Margen	Actualizado
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -7.51%E -5.56%K -21.44%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +0.753%E +0.235%K +0.342%G +0.003%	5.3%	2026-09-03 05:35
SportsBet🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -9.56%E -7.24%K -29.88%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV +0.753%E +0.235%K +0.342%G +0.003%	7.0%	2026-09-03 02:30
Coolbet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -4.08%E -2.91%K -10.20%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -0.821%E -0.261%K -0.382%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-09-03 06:55
FanDuel🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.45%E -3.95%K -14.34%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -0.821%E -0.261%K -0.382%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-03 02:30
Paddy Power🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.82%E -5.01%K -18.94%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.40%E -0.773%K -1.14%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-03 02:30
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.51%E -5.56%K -21.44%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.40%E -0.773%K -1.14%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-03 02:30
1xBet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.61%EV -4.08%E -2.91%K -10.20%G +0.000%	3.06I 32.68%NM 31.39%EV -3.65%E -1.19%K -1.77%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-09-03 07:45
GTbets🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -4.76%E -3.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%	3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV -4.60%E -1.52%K -2.27%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-03 01:51
Marathon Bet🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.64%EV -5.45%E -3.95%K -14.34%G +0.000%	3.02I 33.11%NM 31.36%EV -4.91%E -1.63%K -2.43%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-03 07:40
DraftKings🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.56%EV -5.45%E -3.95%K -14.34%G +0.000%	3.01I 33.22%NM 31.44%EV -5.23%E -1.74%K -2.60%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-03 05:15
Betway🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.08%E -2.91%K -10.20%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-03 05:34
Bovada🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.08%E -2.91%K -10.20%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-03 07:40
BoyleSports🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.08%E -2.91%K -10.20%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-03 03:55
Bet Right🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.76%E -3.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-03 07:35
Betr (AU)🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.45%E -3.95%K -14.34%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-03 07:35
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.45%E -3.95%K -14.34%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-03 01:40
PlayUp🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.45%E -3.95%K -14.34%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-03 02:30
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.45%E -3.95%K -14.34%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-03 02:30
Fanatics🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.14%E -4.48%K -16.58%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-03 01:30
betfred_uk🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.82%E -5.01%K -18.94%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-09-03 01:36
theScore Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.82%E -5.01%K -18.94%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-09-03 01:30
Sky Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.82%E -5.01%K -18.94%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-09-03 02:30
TAB🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.82%E -5.01%K -18.94%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-09-03 02:29
Caesars🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.82%E -5.01%K -18.94%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.54%E -1.85%K -2.77%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-09-03 04:36
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -6.14%E -4.48%K -16.58%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.12%E -2.41%K -3.65%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-09-03 01:30
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:40
BetRivers🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:40
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:39
Grosvenor🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:39
Virgin Bet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:40
Unibet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:40
Casumo🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:40
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:40
TABtouch🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:40
Svenska Spel🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:40
Bally Bet🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:39
ATG (SE)🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:40
betPARX🎯	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -3.39%E -2.41%K -8.28%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-03 07:39
betano_uk🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.08%E -2.91%K -10.20%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-03 07:40
888sport🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.08%E -2.91%K -10.20%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-03 01:36
LeoVegas🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.82%E -5.01%K -18.94%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -8.69%E -3.00%K -4.57%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-09-03 05:20
PMU (FR)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -4.08%E -2.91%K -10.20%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -10.27%E -3.60%K -5.55%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-09-03 07:39
ReBet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 67.79%EV -8.19%E -6.11%K -24.09%G +0.000%	2.82I 35.46%NM 32.21%EV -11.21%E -3.98%K -6.16%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-09-03 01:30
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 67.63%EV -8.19%E -6.11%K -24.09%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 32.37%EV -11.84%E -4.23%K -6.58%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-09-03 01:33
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 67.40%EV -8.88%E -6.67%K -26.90%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 32.60%EV -13.42%E -4.88%K -7.67%G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-09-03 01:30
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 67.40%EV -8.88%E -6.67%K -26.90%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 32.60%EV -13.42%E -4.88%K -7.67%G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-09-03 02:30

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (8)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Novig◎	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.24%	3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%	3.9%	2026-09-03 05:15
Kalshi◎	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.49%	3.12I 32.05%NM 30.51%	5.0%	2026-09-03 07:30
Smarkets◎	1.32I 75.76%NM 67.33%	2.72I 36.76%NM 32.67%	12.5%	2026-09-03 01:30
Matchbook◎	1.17I 85.47%NM 55.85%	1.48I 67.57%NM 44.15%	53.0%	2026-09-03 06:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.17I 85.47%NM 55.00%	1.43I 69.93%NM 45.00%	55.4%	2026-09-03 06:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.17I 85.47%NM 55.00%	1.43I 69.93%NM 45.00%	55.4%	2026-09-03 06:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.17I 85.47%NM 55.00%	1.43I 69.93%NM 45.00%	55.4%	2026-09-03 06:40
ProphetX◎	1.09I 91.74%NM 51.77%	1.17I 85.47%NM 48.23%	77.2%	2026-09-03 07:35