Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jasmine Paolini v Sorana Cirstea

2026-09-04 15:00 UTC — WTA US Open

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

40%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jasmine Paolini (Local)

Prediction 39.59%2.53fair odd

EV +0.947%

Edge +0.371%

Kelly +0.611%

Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.19%39.38%39.75%40.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.202.432.402.5545.45%41.19%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sorana Cirstea (Visit)

Prediction 60.41%1.66fair odd

EV -3.34%

Edge -2.09%

Kelly -5.57%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.46%60.62%60.25%62.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.541.551.6066.67%64.90%64.52%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Jasmine Paolini (Local): 39.59%; Sorana Cirstea (Visit): 60.41%. For Jasmine Paolini (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. 15 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.55, producing a positive expected value of +0.947%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -7.57%E -4.95%K -14.28%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-02 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -8.17%E -5.38%K -15.72%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-02 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -8.17%E -5.38%K -15.72%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-02 18:55
Unibet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -8.17%E -5.38%K -15.72%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-02 18:55
BetRivers🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
TABtouch🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Casumo🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Grosvenor🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
betPARX🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Bally Bet🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +0.947%E +0.371%K +0.611%G +0.006%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 18:55
Coolbet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.03%E -0.413%K -0.688%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.94%E -2.48%K -6.68%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-09-02 19:09
Betway🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -1.03%E -0.413%K -0.688%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-02 19:05
PMU (FR)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -1.03%E -0.413%K -0.688%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-02 18:55
1xBet🎯	2.49I 40.16%NM 38.52%EV -1.43%E -0.574%K -0.959%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.48%EV -5.76%E -3.69%K -10.28%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-02 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.50%EV -2.62%E -1.06%K -1.79%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.50%EV -6.96%E -4.52%K -12.90%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-02 19:35
Bovada🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.01%E -1.23%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-02 19:09
SportsBet🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -3.01%E -1.23%K -2.08%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-09-02 17:55
Bet Right🎯	2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.20%E -1.74%K -2.96%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -5.76%E -3.69%K -10.28%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-02 19:10
Fanatics🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.99%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.76%E -3.69%K -10.28%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-02 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.99%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.76%E -3.69%K -10.28%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-09-02 19:35
Betr (AU)🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.99%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-02 19:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.99%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-02 19:00
PlayUp🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.99%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-02 22:05
Fliff🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.99%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.57%E -4.95%K -14.28%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-02 20:55
betfred_uk🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-02 19:10
DraftKings🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-02 19:00
888sport🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-02 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-02 20:35
888sport (SE)🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-02 20:35
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -5.78%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -5.76%E -3.69%K -10.28%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-09-02 17:59
GTbets🎯	2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -6.57%E -2.79%K -4.83%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -3.34%E -2.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-02 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.34%E -2.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-02 19:35
Neds🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.34%E -2.09%K -5.57%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-02 19:35
Tipico (DE)🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-02 20:45
BetMGM🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.15%E -3.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-02 19:35
theScore Bet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.76%E -3.69%K -10.28%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-09-02 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-09-02 17:55
TAB🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.97%E -2.97%K -5.16%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-09-02 22:04
Coral🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.95%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-09-02 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.95%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.36%E -4.10%K -11.56%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-09-02 19:35
LeoVegas🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.95%E -3.89%K -6.88%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.57%E -4.95%K -14.28%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-02 18:05
Betclic (FR)🎯	2.27I 44.05%NM 40.11%EV -10.14%E -4.47%K -7.98%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 59.89%EV -8.17%E -5.38%K -15.72%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-09-02 17:55
ReBet🎯	2.27I 44.05%NM 39.95%EV -10.14%E -4.47%K -7.98%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 60.05%EV -8.78%E -5.81%K -17.21%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-09-02 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.93%E -4.86%K -8.74%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.00%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-09-02 18:01
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -12.91%E -5.87%K -10.76%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 59.46%EV -9.38%E -6.25%K -18.76%G +0.000%	12.1%	2026-09-02 19:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%	1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%	3.1%	2026-09-02 22:55
Novig◎	2.27I 44.05%NM 39.47%	1.48I 67.57%NM 60.53%	11.6%	2026-09-02 19:05
Smarkets◎	2.22I 45.05%NM 40.16%	1.49I 67.11%NM 59.84%	12.2%	2026-09-02 17:55
Matchbook◎	1.96I 51.02%NM 41.14%	1.37I 72.99%NM 58.86%	24.0%	2026-09-02 21:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.12I 89.29%NM 50.00%	1.12I 89.29%NM 50.00%	78.6%	2026-09-02 20:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.12I 89.29%NM 50.00%	1.12I 89.29%NM 50.00%	78.6%	2026-09-02 20:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.12I 89.29%NM 50.00%	1.12I 89.29%NM 50.00%	78.6%	2026-09-02 20:30